not too much success for me on the ladies appetizer on friday, but i'll be at the track for the first time in recent memory tomorrow and will take the rubber band off the bankroll.
r2: california flag. this is a real skull buster of a race, but i'm going to play california flag. i was very impressed with his last out, wiring a good field, including get funky, whom i played very very heavily in the multi-race exotics last time out. 'glag does seem to need the lead for his best, but i think he can outsprint these, including mr. nightlinger, who has yet to try this distance on the weeds. i will play the board, and if get funky slips away a bit on the tote, i'll include him as well.
r3: well armed. play this guy at your own peril, as i've lost plenty of change betting against this guy over the past year, and i fell in love with his last race. tiago and 'maximus had dead aim and this guy just kept running away from them. the price won't be great, but i think we'll get at least the 3/1 morning line and that's enough for me.
r4: pass. whatsthescript is the best of the local contingent, but something tells me the euros are ready to roll, so i'm going to watch this one and not get invoved.
r5: munnings. pletcher colt had the misfortune of running into vineyard haven, the clubhouse leader for the 2 year championship and do think he and his mate in the adjacent stall, gallant son, are the two to beat in here. the norfolk wasn't any great shakes of a race, so i'm giong to pitch the locals and focus on the two inside draws.
r6: grand adventure. bejarano will have to fashion a clever ride from the 12 hole, but loved this guy's last effort at woodbine, in only his 2nd career start. i think this son of the very productive turf sire, grand slam, is sitting on another smasher.
r7: black seventeen. i was fortunate to play this guy at a juicy 23/1 in the vosburgh and while i think he'll be south of that price, his connections will likely make him largely invisible at the windows. that would be a mistake in my estimation, as this guy whowed flashes of brilliance last year and just may be back rounding into top form. if he moves up even a little (he handled synthetics just fine last year) off his last, look out.
r8: winchester. i've historically underperformed in the BC turf races (mile and turf) over the years, so i'm going to make a small play on winchester, who beat a weak field in the secretariat at arlington over the summer. he's been freshened for dermot weld and i think this 3 year old son of theatrical has the most upside of the lot.
r9: raven's pass. i'm not too enthused with playing against wonder horse curlin at 6/5, so i'll look to one of the euros for a chance an upset. the american lot is a subpar bunch and don't think they're up to the task in this 10 furlong feature. 'pass has turned the tables on henrythenavigator of late and should enjoy both the surface and distance. if curlin win, i tip my cap and salute one of the best, who races for a very sporting group of owners at stonestreet.
r10: into mischeif. back classers goergie boy and gayego return in this stake sprint and while it would not surprise to see either of those two win on class alone, there's clearly bigger fish to fry down the line for the duo. 'mischief has been carefully managed since his two year old campaign and i think he may get hte right trip stalking in hif first go in 8 months.
r11: deal making. assuming i'm sober and not devoid of cash, i will try to end the day with dela making who strikes my untrained eye as a horse who will benefit greatly from the blinkers. 'making has run admirably, if not spectacularly in his previous 6 starts, but think he'll probably enjoy a much cleaner trip if the blinkers force him closer to the pace, without compromising his late kick.
good luck out there! as a bonus, i am playing some head to head matchups and here are some thoughts on horses who could be overbet tomorrow.
r1- the price on big booster is rather steep in the h2h and while he could certainly win, this is notthe same animal that ran out of his mind last year and would look for him to underperform.
r2- will be playing almost any matchup i can find against idiot proof, whose form bear no resemblence at all to the colt who ran second in the BC sprint last year.
r4- daytona- i've never liked him and while this enigma has fucked me before, i really don't like his last, where he spit the bit along with the previous sub par effort against whatsthescript.
r7- first defense and fatal bullet both look like complete tossouts in here and despite ventura's wonderful performance today for these connections, i don't buy either of first defense's efforts in teh saratoga sprint races. likewis, 'bullet comes off turfway and pid victories, hardly the test he's going to get in here.
r9- student council- i've never thought much of this guy at any point as he falls into the same category as perfect drift for me- a wonderful horse to own, but never one who you could/should feel comfortable backing at the windows. expect him up the track today.
r2: california flag. this is a real skull buster of a race, but i'm going to play california flag. i was very impressed with his last out, wiring a good field, including get funky, whom i played very very heavily in the multi-race exotics last time out. 'glag does seem to need the lead for his best, but i think he can outsprint these, including mr. nightlinger, who has yet to try this distance on the weeds. i will play the board, and if get funky slips away a bit on the tote, i'll include him as well.
r3: well armed. play this guy at your own peril, as i've lost plenty of change betting against this guy over the past year, and i fell in love with his last race. tiago and 'maximus had dead aim and this guy just kept running away from them. the price won't be great, but i think we'll get at least the 3/1 morning line and that's enough for me.
r4: pass. whatsthescript is the best of the local contingent, but something tells me the euros are ready to roll, so i'm going to watch this one and not get invoved.
r5: munnings. pletcher colt had the misfortune of running into vineyard haven, the clubhouse leader for the 2 year championship and do think he and his mate in the adjacent stall, gallant son, are the two to beat in here. the norfolk wasn't any great shakes of a race, so i'm giong to pitch the locals and focus on the two inside draws.
r6: grand adventure. bejarano will have to fashion a clever ride from the 12 hole, but loved this guy's last effort at woodbine, in only his 2nd career start. i think this son of the very productive turf sire, grand slam, is sitting on another smasher.
r7: black seventeen. i was fortunate to play this guy at a juicy 23/1 in the vosburgh and while i think he'll be south of that price, his connections will likely make him largely invisible at the windows. that would be a mistake in my estimation, as this guy whowed flashes of brilliance last year and just may be back rounding into top form. if he moves up even a little (he handled synthetics just fine last year) off his last, look out.
r8: winchester. i've historically underperformed in the BC turf races (mile and turf) over the years, so i'm going to make a small play on winchester, who beat a weak field in the secretariat at arlington over the summer. he's been freshened for dermot weld and i think this 3 year old son of theatrical has the most upside of the lot.
r9: raven's pass. i'm not too enthused with playing against wonder horse curlin at 6/5, so i'll look to one of the euros for a chance an upset. the american lot is a subpar bunch and don't think they're up to the task in this 10 furlong feature. 'pass has turned the tables on henrythenavigator of late and should enjoy both the surface and distance. if curlin win, i tip my cap and salute one of the best, who races for a very sporting group of owners at stonestreet.
r10: into mischeif. back classers goergie boy and gayego return in this stake sprint and while it would not surprise to see either of those two win on class alone, there's clearly bigger fish to fry down the line for the duo. 'mischief has been carefully managed since his two year old campaign and i think he may get hte right trip stalking in hif first go in 8 months.
r11: deal making. assuming i'm sober and not devoid of cash, i will try to end the day with dela making who strikes my untrained eye as a horse who will benefit greatly from the blinkers. 'making has run admirably, if not spectacularly in his previous 6 starts, but think he'll probably enjoy a much cleaner trip if the blinkers force him closer to the pace, without compromising his late kick.
good luck out there! as a bonus, i am playing some head to head matchups and here are some thoughts on horses who could be overbet tomorrow.
r1- the price on big booster is rather steep in the h2h and while he could certainly win, this is notthe same animal that ran out of his mind last year and would look for him to underperform.
r2- will be playing almost any matchup i can find against idiot proof, whose form bear no resemblence at all to the colt who ran second in the BC sprint last year.
r4- daytona- i've never liked him and while this enigma has fucked me before, i really don't like his last, where he spit the bit along with the previous sub par effort against whatsthescript.
r7- first defense and fatal bullet both look like complete tossouts in here and despite ventura's wonderful performance today for these connections, i don't buy either of first defense's efforts in teh saratoga sprint races. likewis, 'bullet comes off turfway and pid victories, hardly the test he's going to get in here.
r9- student council- i've never thought much of this guy at any point as he falls into the same category as perfect drift for me- a wonderful horse to own, but never one who you could/should feel comfortable backing at the windows. expect him up the track today.
