BC, Pitt

[jaypaw]

These two look like the safest for me.

BC again getting points against a team that isnt as good - and craig smith has come into his own over the last few games.

Pitt battled uconn and should have no trouble battling cuse just the same - especially with mcnamara not 100%.

Haven't placed the bets yet but I dont think waiting some will hurt me on these two. Gonna check back in later with more Pac 10 thoughts... I like UCLA I think to cover that +5 and I'm also looking at washington (though there are a lot of reasons I see to stay off that one all together)


Gotta give into the 4 team tease with:
Pitt +12
BC +11
Kstate +18
UCLA +15

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I simply don't understand the upside of a 4 team teaser. The chance of going 3-1 or even 2-2 and losing is not acceptable to me. A team that needs teaser points just to cover is not a prudent investment. I'd play my 2 best straight and maybe a 3 team parlay with the others.

Just one players opinion
Just win anyway
Gary

 

[zip32]

Jaypaw, nice call on Brown last night

 

[jaypaw]

Gary - the way I try to play it following two concepts - as a 4 team high ML parlay that pays out better, and/or when I see games being relatively 'close' to the line or a line being about "right".


For example - today all the games I'm playing in the 4 team tease apply to the "close game" or "right" line situation. I think the spreads seem about right in all cases.

BC keeps getting a point or two vs opponents that aren't as good and I'm gonna stay on that till things change,

Pitt played with UConn so there is no reason for them to get blown out vs a mediocre Syracuse team with an ailing star,

UCLA is coming off two of the toughest games they will play all year and havent really broken down the way they easily could have - and to ask them to play with Cal who has had trouble with lots of teams cant be asking too much - especially at +15,

and Oklahoma has been putrid while KState has risen to the task quite a few times this year so same thing - blowout? can't be...

Anyway I respect your point about the teasers - I am aware that thats why they are called teasers because its always that one game that ruins it for the bet. And you'll probably be right at the end of the season when I will have lost money playing them - but I like playing them, they are fun and it is a way to keep myself from going insane in the process of betting on games.

 

[jaypaw]

21wins-29 losses on the season
(11 for 25 ATS (1 push))
(3 for 4 buying points (buying didnt help yet))
(5 for 13 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [-120])
(2 for 7 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)

under 40% on those 4 teamers is getting me nowhere - then again 40 ATS isnt much better either...

 

[Cappthespread.com]

when you play a teaser you move the advantage of the house grows very high, I advise not playing them, it's a waste of money.

 

[StevieRayHendrix]

I like BC A lot today, that game looks like a winner to me.

 

[jaypaw]

Thanks for the advice - Good luck with your picks.

1 4 teamer
Kansas State +19 Sat@1:30p
Boston College +11 Sat@4:00p
UCLA +15½ Sat@4:00p
Pittsburgh +12½ Sat@8:00p


and 2 singles ATS
BC +1


Pitt +2.5

 

[jaypaw]

Even if its tight at the get go I gotta believe temple will be ahead by a couple...

Just a hunch

 

[jaypaw]

Hunches suck.

I added a bet on BC buying some points because I would hate to go following my hunches again and get burnt by a 2 or 3 pt loss...


BC +3.5 (-160)

 

[jaypaw]

holy crap

thank god I bought those damn points

I still didnt break even but I did save some face in the matter.

Temple loss
BC +1 loss
BC +3.5 win

Pitt pending
4 teamer pending

 

[jaypaw]

pitt is the only one left in the 4 teamer

so its 1-4

or if pitt pulls through maybe 3-2

 

[jaypaw]

1 4 teamer today too...

Kansas -2, Sun@2:00p
Kentucky +6, Sun@4:00p
Louisville +2½, Sun@7:00p
Maryland +4, Sun@6:30p


And Kentucky -4 baby!

 

[jaypaw]

24wins-31 losses on the season
(12 for 28 ATS (1 push))
(4 for 5 buying points (buying helped once))
(6 for 14 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [-120])
(2 for 7 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)

 

[jaypaw]

one more

Kentucky (1stHalf) -2