Bar n Grill - November 2008 On Frozen Pond

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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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October summary to follow

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A half dozen doggies....Can't decide which I view as best overall, so I'm laying same big $12 on each.

The Stars and Kings selections will also compose my 2Teamer O' Day play for November 1

MIGHTY STARS +133 at Bear

See yesterday's notes about Dallas with Turco playing After game(s) off.

Add in a very nice scheduling role for Dallas (Away After Away with 0daysrest) where they are 14-6 over past two seasons and we like them to bump the Bruins who are returning from a far west Canadian roadie.

STINKING PANTHER + 152 at Predator

Hate to ride against normally reliable HNIC correspondent VIC VICTORY, but I pinched him twice last week with Totals and hope I can snatch a bit of his Ching again here. I promise to put it to good use if so.

Florida in a good spot for them, which is playing Away After a Home game. Preds meanwhile, get the higher price due to their consistent home play of past three years but wait, they only Allowed 1 goal in past game. The last 30 times the Predators Allowed 1orless goals they won the next game just 11 times. This one has what looks to be a good shot for 8+ goals so we might add the Over 5.5 before tonight's drop.

BOLT -120 vs Senator

Here comes the Lightning. Despite their desultory work product the past 1 1/2 seasons, tonight they're in a spot that is triple nice for them.

a) Playing Home After Away - TB 11-11 since last season here, and 22-20 going back two years. Not amazing until we compare to their overall W/L percentage in same era.

b) After Scoring 5+ goals - TB 16-15 past 2+ seasons here...again a nice edge compared to overall W/L

c) After Away Win - While most teams tend to be flat or below .500 in this role, Bolts are 21-13 in past 2+ seasons.

In short, they have been able to put together two and three game spurts when these variables combine and tonight looks like a good spot versus an Ottawa team that has not won three in a row on the road since early December 2007.

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HAWK +100 at Jacket

Hate to go against fellow Puckster SHERWOOD, but we're just not buying the "Jackets are up and coming" rap which has been fed to us in varying size spoonfuls since Ken Hitchcock took over the reins almost two years ago.

Chicago coming off a 5+ goal outing has won 12 of 22 going back 2+ seasons.

Meanwhile, CBus After playing a 4+ goal performance on the road has seen 12 of 16 fall by the wayside. And if they're coming off a 2+ goal road win, they're 2-6 in next game since Koach Ken took over in Dec 2006

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KING +115 vs Fire

Calgary enters with a nice hot streak in which they are +11 in Scoring Marging past five games. That's the best SM they've had in over two years, with the one other time being a +12 which fell the first time they had a roadie. What Flames are being asked to do is set an almost 3 year best scoring margin mark, on the road, while giving up -135. Give us the Kings who are a nice even 11-11 in past 22 After Scoring1orless goals.

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OIL +115 at Cane

Little more than a coattail here of Forum mate SHERWOOD in combination with our own note that Carolina past 21 After Allowing 1orless goals is a not so mighty 7-14. Also Carolina past 19 After an Away win is an equally uninspiring 6-13.

Best to us all for a profitable HNIC
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Nov 1 summary

3-3 (+1.80)
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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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OCTOBER summary

35-34 (-9.03)

Beginning NHL Bank 300.00
Current NHL Bank 290.97
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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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SUNDAY, Nov 2

A pair of $9 shots with

DUCK -1.5 (+175) vs Fire
WING -1.5 (+210) at Nuck
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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Nov 2 summary

0-2 (-18.00)
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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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MONDAY, Nov 3

JACKET -120 at Isle $10

CBus coming off Home Loss is 14-8 past 22 and here's a good chance to continue that positive trend as they face the Islanders - quite likely the worst team in NHL at present.

With Rangers on deck for the next night, we could an extra drop in motivation for NYI as they dismiss CBus while looking ahead.
 

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Thanks for the info B'man. And yes, my hometown Isles could very well be the worst team in the NHL right now.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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ark...OT lack o' love for Jackets

Nov 3 summary

0-1 (-12.00)
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Fun Fact...Real Life wager was a $10 2Teamer with CHI -145....so I receive solace that I was not utterly blind

HINDSIGHT Note with regard to the Hawks choice - Colorado is now 3-19 when they play Away After a Home game (going back to beginning of last season)

They're also just 12-10 in that role when graded at +1.5, so we're pretty sure that we'll be looking to continue to Fade them in this role during coming month

Nov 12 At Vancouver
Nov 22 at LAKings
Nov 28 at Phoenix
Dec 1 at Minnesota
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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TUESDAY, Nov 4

2TeamParlay

ISLE +260 at Ranger
ISLE/RANGER Over 5.5 (+110)

Lay 4
Pays 26.24
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YOTE/FIRE Undah 5.5 (-130)
WILD +1.5 (-170) at Shark

Lay 9
Pays 16.29
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I also like Ottawa but need a price before I can make that call.

Best to us all for a profitable Tuesday
 

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Isles hooked up the B2B victory. Unfortunately, the goaltenders decided to show up tonight. Not bad though at NYI +260.
 

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BoL w/the late nighter. Unfortunately on the other side in the PHX/CAL game.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Isles hooked up the B2B victory. Unfortunately, the goaltenders decided to show up tonight. Not bad though at NYI +260.

Yep...Got greedy and tried to pack the two together rather then play them both straight and make money with a split.

NYR at Home on 2DaysRest are above .500 for Over 5.5 past 20

And of course NYI defense has heretofore offered up a fairly reliable 3+ goals.

Onward...

(played the OTT in an unposted small 2teamparlay with SACRAMENTO -3.5 Wednesday night, so the night is still quite young)
 

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Considering the Wild in the late one w/the Sharks. Like the Puckline play you have parlayed.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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probably too late once you read this, but fwiw, my past six +1.5 selections which have all been parlayed due to prices at about -175, five have won straight up.

ALMOST stuck MIN +145 into a wrap with CAL -1.5 but then suddenly realized I was having Late Night Insanity.

Working on tomorrow's NBA and NHL

Go Wild +1.5 and for cryin' out loud, stay Under in CAL

I'll help ya make up your Unit later
 

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Risking more than 2 units on the CAL over, so have some skin in the game.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Dos y dos with time remaining in first....Surely nothing can go wrong for ya now....

Sincerely

The 201 Game Total in PHX/NJ NBA game tonight which was 118 after first half.
 

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How's it looking for Columbus tomorrow w/a day off on the road after a road loss?
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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CBUS is at Home on Wednesday.

I don't track "After Road Loss" yet

I do track Home After Away

CBUS 8-11 last season in this role (2-5 when it was 1DayRest) and this season so far are 2-2 so not much help in comparison to the posted +100 price for Wednesday's game.

But I do see a bit of help with some Oil numbers and it might tilt me to Edmonton, especially if I can get a price drop from -120

EDM playing Away After Away is 17-13 going back to beginning of last season. Better yet, when that preceding Away game was a Win, the target Away game was also a winner 10 times in 13

In short, they seem to have a decent knack for putting together back to back road wins.

And here we have an opponent (CBus) who continues to demonstrate themselves as being a Bottom3rd (of league) team so that's also helpful to fulfill the above strong Away/Away trend for Edmonton.

An additional note for Oil is that this will be their first chance this season playing After Scoring5+goals. Last season they were 9-5 in such a spot
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Meanwhile, further west on Wednesday we see St Louis playing After Allowing 5+goals - a spot where they've won only three times in past 15 chances.

Also they're playing After a HomeLoss and they're 8-16 in past 24 such outings.

Note that in both roles above, they're 12-3 and 14-10 when graded at +1.5.

Additionally Anaheim does not grade too well at -1.5 (4-12) when playing with 0Days rest.

So it would seem the best way to use this game would be Duck moneyline in a 2Teamer so as to reduce exposure.

Such a move of course depends also on the outcome of Tuesday's game at LAK
 

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