ope:I have pounded Alabama all year, against Clemson, Georgia and Tennessee. This is where I will lay off. LSU's style of play is one that matches up very well with Bama, and although riding Bama's season has paid off, this is the one game they might lose.
Why all of this stupid discussion. This is not a fan site message board. This is a handicapping message board. Please provide some sort of insight or GTFO. There are way too many clowns on here. If you think Alabama is solid and a great team then bet on them over the next few games. If you think they are overrated then bet against them. Most people on here are so biased either way it is absolutely comical. I support the Alabama program but I also like to make money and have played against Alabama in several spots this year. I will tell you this, there are a lot of people who are so anti Alabama because they have greatly exceeded expectations and they have lost betting against them on key games this year (clemson, georgia, ole miss, and tennessee). These same people will come on here and bash the talent of Alabama each and every week until one day when Alabama loses they will say, "see, i told you they sucked".
I will leave you with this. There is not a better "Team" in the country than Alabama. They have nowhere near the talent level of most teams that are considered top 10 teams. That will come soon, but right now they have very little depth and are playing basically mistake free football. They have a recipe and an identity that can win football games: veteran qb, strong O-line, strong D-line, multiple options at RB, and a coach that so far this year has them prepared to take on more talented teams and have the confidence they will win. They are not flashy. They will not come out in the 2nd half of a game they are leading by double digits and give new looks offensively and defensively. They play very vanilla in these types of games. That is why you see, 31, 21, and 14 point halftime leads get reduced to wins of 11, 4, and 3 points. That is just Alabama's style and has been since I can remember back in the 70's.
Alabama has had a great season and it may even end up special. Why would anybody feel the need to brag about that on a sports handicapping forum or why would anyone need to put them down. Alabama may very well lose to LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, or Florida if they make the SEC championship. But they may also win those games. If you feel they are overrated, or just in a bad spot 1 week, then by all means bet against them. You probably already have. If you think they can maintain the same level of play and pull out a few more victories then bet on them. It's as simple as that.
I will leave you with this. There is not a better "Team" in the country than Alabama. They have nowhere near the talent level of most teams that are considered top 10 teams. That will come soon, but right now they have very little depth and are playing basically mistake free football. They have a recipe and an identity that can win football games: veteran qb, strong O-line, strong D-line, multiple options at RB, and a coach that so far this year has them prepared to take on more talented teams and have the confidence they will win. They are not flashy. They will not come out in the 2nd half of a game they are leading by double digits and give new looks offensively and defensively. They play very vanilla in these types of games. That is why you see, 31, 21, and 14 point halftime leads get reduced to wins of 11, 4, and 3 points. That is just Alabama's style and has been since I can remember back in the 70's.
Alabama has had a great season and it may even end up special. Why would anybody feel the need to brag about that on a sports handicapping forum or why would anyone need to put them down. Alabama may very well lose to LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, or Florida if they make the SEC championship. But they may also win those games. If you feel they are overrated, or just in a bad spot 1 week, then by all means bet against them. You probably already have. If you think they can maintain the same level of play and pull out a few more victories then bet on them. It's as simple as that.
I will start out this week's discussion with this one point, but will get into match-ups later in the week.
If I love Bama and I can't wait to bet on them every week, I unload on them this week at ONLY -3.
Now, if I have been handicapping for ANY reasonable length of time, I look at this line and say what in the fuck am I missing here? The #1 team playing some team that has been blown out and is starting a freshman QB....and the line is only -3.
You Bama lovers better wake up and try not to gobble up what Vegas is feeding you.
If I love Bama and I can't wait to bet on them every week, I unload on them this week at ONLY -3.
Now, if I have been handicapping for ANY reasonable length of time, I look at this line and say what in the fuck am I missing here? The #1 team playing some team that has been blown out and is starting a freshman QB....and the line is only -3.
You Bama lovers better wake up and try not to gobble up what Vegas is feeding you.
Nothing. Before last week the Vegas power ratings had Bama four points better than LSU. Factor in homefield, and you have Bama -1. Last week's results aren't going to affect LSU's rating (finished right around the number) and might move Bama up a point, or not. They're not looking for Bama money with this line.
LSU was obliterated by NFL caliber QB's which JDP for Alabama is not. Stafford and Tebow will be playing on Sunday while Parker carries a clipboard.
LSU is a decent team, Alabama is a better team but I think LSU's D matches up better with 'Bama's O @ home then they do with Florida or Georgia and that is why the line is as low as it is IMO.
LSU is a decent team, Alabama is a better team but I think LSU's D matches up better with 'Bama's O @ home then they do with Florida or Georgia and that is why the line is as low as it is IMO.
Great post BB.
I still like Bama in this spot as LSU has shown they have zero defense and their secondary has been exposed against teams with mediocre passing ability. I think Bama can run and run well against a LSU DL that was completely ineffective against a very young and somewhat undersized UGA OL. LSU will get their points against Bama, but having Lee at QB has been a real handicap for the Tigers. He's just making too many mistakes and threw yet another pick 6 vs Tulane of all teams. (Thanks for that BTW as I had Tulane)
I still like Bama in this spot as LSU has shown they have zero defense and their secondary has been exposed against teams with mediocre passing ability. I think Bama can run and run well against a LSU DL that was completely ineffective against a very young and somewhat undersized UGA OL. LSU will get their points against Bama, but having Lee at QB has been a real handicap for the Tigers. He's just making too many mistakes and threw yet another pick 6 vs Tulane of all teams. (Thanks for that BTW as I had Tulane)
Bama-3 I also LOVE
I am a big UGA fan and follow all SEC games--I made over 50 units SAt alone with my major play on FLA -5.5 against my GA Bulldogs-
If WE (UGA can go in to BATON ROUGE and win big against an overrated LSU team-
BAMA will also go in a win--They may not look pretty or win impressive--But they will cover the 3 and will do it with great defense and just enough offense-
Not my Major play of the week--Not sure what it will be--But ALA-3 will be at least a 5 unit play($500)
I am a big UGA fan and follow all SEC games--I made over 50 units SAt alone with my major play on FLA -5.5 against my GA Bulldogs-
If WE (UGA can go in to BATON ROUGE and win big against an overrated LSU team-
BAMA will also go in a win--They may not look pretty or win impressive--But they will cover the 3 and will do it with great defense and just enough offense-
Not my Major play of the week--Not sure what it will be--But ALA-3 will be at least a 5 unit play($500)
I think LSU is overrated. They have been touted as having a great D line, but it just isn't performing. I think it's a combination of loss of coordinator and loss of talent from last year.
They are 11th in the SEC in scoring D (skewed heavily by two games, but still) and last in interceptions, they are middle of the pack in sacks and rush D. Alabama is first in the SEC in rush defense. They play the same type of game, and I just don't think LSU has played well enough on the O & D line to convince me they will win.
Sarah Jessica Parker Wilson could lose a game for Bama. If he gets pressure he'll throw it up and get shaken. Look at the first half of the Tenn game. It's the recipe to beat Bama. Stack the box to stop the run and put pressure on Wilson. That hasn't happened yet though.
They are 11th in the SEC in scoring D (skewed heavily by two games, but still) and last in interceptions, they are middle of the pack in sacks and rush D. Alabama is first in the SEC in rush defense. They play the same type of game, and I just don't think LSU has played well enough on the O & D line to convince me they will win.
Sarah Jessica Parker Wilson could lose a game for Bama. If he gets pressure he'll throw it up and get shaken. Look at the first half of the Tenn game. It's the recipe to beat Bama. Stack the box to stop the run and put pressure on Wilson. That hasn't happened yet though.
