B.J. Penn (-195) vs. Kenny Florian (+155) preview

[JakeT.]

Florian has the ground game to avoid Penn submissions and a standup game that is better than Penn's. I think Florian has a great shot of getting the decision win if he avoids Penn's takedowns. BJ has never been a dominant takedown guy either. My money is on the challenger.

 

[Snake_Pliskan]

Florian has the ground game to avoid Penn submissions and a standup game that is better than Penn's.

I don't agree with this statement. Florian may have a more varied striking game than Penn ( knees, kicks ).....but Penn has better boxing and an iron chin that allows him to stalk his LW opponents. Florian will dance and evade like he did vs. Huerta and Din Thomas ( til freak knee blow out) but Penn will catch him where they could not.

 

[JakeT.]

I don't agree with this statement. Florian may have a more varied striking game than Penn ( knees, kicks ).....but Penn has better boxing and an iron chin that allows him to stalk his LW opponents. Florian will dance and evade like he did vs. Huerta and Din Thomas ( til freak knee blow out) but Penn will catch him where they could not.

Penn has ended only 1 of his last 14 fights by a knockout or technical knockout and it was a huge knee on a Sherk takedown attempt. I wouldn't count on Penn catching him in the standup personally.

 

[Snake_Pliskan]

Penn has ended only 1 of his last 14 fights by a knockout or technical knockout and it was a huge knee on a Sherk takedown attempt. I wouldn't count on Penn catching him in the standup personally.

Penn may not end it standing, but I would not be surprised if he gets the better of the stand-up to the point where an easy sub finish becomes available. His chin and good technical boxing ability allows him to close range and score damage pretty effectively in the stand-up. I think Kenny will show him a lot of respect in the stand-up after he gets stung a couple of times and then Kenny's stand-up will become limited to long range sniping ( kicks, jabs.....no muay thai).

I hopped on Penn at -185 as I had a feeling the line would move against him. Might try to add some more to my bet or at least get Penn in on some parley bets.

 

[core42]

Penn may not end it standing, but I would not be surprised if he gets the better of the stand-up to the point where an easy sub finish becomes available. His chin and good technical boxing ability allows him to close range and score damage pretty effectively in the stand-up. I think Kenny will show him a lot of respect in the stand-up after he gets stung a couple of times and then Kenny's stand-up will become limited to long range sniping ( kicks, jabs.....no muay thai).

I hopped on Penn at -185 as I had a feeling the line would move against him. Might try to add some more to my bet or at least get Penn in on some parley bets.

This is how I see it as well...think Penn/Stevenson fight where Penn got the best of the boxing until the take down/sub attempt opportunity presented itself. If Florian's kick boxing is better than expected BJ has better wrestling and can take him down. With BJ's take downs & take down defense he can dictate where the fight takes place

 

[TheBrainiac]

This reminds me of Henderson vs Bisping in some way ... Penn is most likely not afraid of Kenny's stand up and has sick takedown defense and iron chin to stalk him so Kenny might not be able to establish his range to score points .

 

[JakeT.]

Kenny's elusive standup and his ability to keep distance and strike effectively will give him at least a 50% chance to win this fight. BJ's wrestling is nothing special in that division.

 

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I think Penn wins this fight 8 out of 10 times..I will give you kudos if Florian wins this fight Jake..I just can't see Florian winning this fight..BJ is on another level than him

 

[Mr_Mark]

depends on which bj shows up. he has the potential to beat florian easily imo but you never know what your gonna get from bj

taking the upset with kenny +155

 

[OnePlayAtATime]

Kenny's elusive standup and his ability to keep distance and strike effectively will give him at least a 50% chance to win this fight. BJ's wrestling is nothing special in that division.

Have you lost your mind? BJ's wrestling stopped Sean Sherk from being able to take him down. Sherk was taking Florian down at will. Randy Couture has gone on record as saying that BJ Penn has some of the greatest takedown defense he has ever seen.

 

[OnePlayAtATime]

Florian will not win this fight. Not a chance in hell.

 

[JakeT.]

Have you lost your mind? BJ's wrestling stopped Sean Sherk from being able to take him down. Sherk was taking Florian down at will. Randy Couture has gone on record as saying that BJ Penn has some of the greatest takedown defense he has ever seen.

He has great takedown defense... I think Florian has better standup and I don't think BJ's takedown offense will allow him to get the fight to the mat. Therefore, edge to Florian.

 

[JakeT.]

Also let me add that all the takedown defense in the world won't matter if the opponent doesn't want the fight to hit the ground.

 

[OnePlayAtATime]

Florian doesnt have better stand up. BJ will jab him to death. This will be ugly.

 

[JakeT.]

Florian doesnt have better stand up. BJ will jab him to death. This will be ugly.

Can't agree at all. BJ has better boxing but Kenny's kicks will help him keep distance. Kenny is also better at getting out of the way. I don't see him knocking out BJ or anything but he'll hit BJ more and I see this fight staying on the feet for almost the entire time. Kenny by decision.

 

[OnePlayAtATime]

Conditioning is the only area where Florian may have a slight advantage and that won't come in to play as Penn will treat him like he did Stevenson. Florian is a great B Level Fighter but nothing more.

 

[JakeT.]

Conditioning is the only area where Florian may have a slight advantage and that won't come in to play as Penn will treat him like he did Stevenson. Florian is a great B Level Fighter but nothing more.

Stevenson's striking skills don't even begin to compare to Florian's wide range of attacks. That's a silly comparison. Stevenson is short and squat and tried to outbox a better boxer. Florian is longer and better at avoiding punishment with better kickboxing skills. I don't see how those fighters' comparisons are relevant here.

 

[JakeT.]

Florian's only career UFC losses were to excellent wrestlers in Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez. The only guy he's fought that has a similar style to BJ is Joe Lauzon and Kenny finished it early. It also took him less time to take out Joe Stevenson than it took for BJ.

 

[JakeT.]

Florian's standup looks a ton like Lyoto Machida's IMO and Machida beat Penn by decision. Yeah, I know Machida was at a natural weight and Penn wasn't, but still. Florian's striking has gotten so much better. Here is the Huerta video who I think has better standup than Penn (albeit more careless but with a ton more power). The only place where Huerta did anything was with his leg kicks but Penn doesn't throw many of those.

http://blog.ronin5.com/ufc-87-video-roger-huerta-vs-kenny-florian-video-clip/

 

[JakeT.]

<img src="http://i41.tinypic.com/2mfmdkp.gif">