Avocado's 2022 NFL Playoffs

[Avocado33]

Sunday: Bills at Chiefs

Play: Chiefs -1.5


As talented as Josh Allen is, he is also one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league. He usually follows up great performances with mediocre to sometimes just dreadful ones. Good example of this would be how he played in the games after the big win over New England in Foxboro during the regular season. When you really look at Allen's body of work this season, it shows a streaky QB who has pretty big high's and low's. I don't trust him to repeat what he did against New England.

While I think the Bills secondary could give KC some issues, I think the Chiefs will be pretty effective in the run game and also in the intermediate passing game. Reid a good coach and will try to exploit the Bills' deficiencies up front. Look for the Chiefs to be able to control the line when they have the ball.

I also like Mahommes to have a nice game here. He's battle-tested and has championship pedigree -- something Allen and the Bills don't have. I like them to win at home and cover the small number.

 

[Avocado33]

In summation:

Bengals +3.5
49ers +6
Bucs -3
Chiefs -1.5

Wild card: 3-3

Good luck

 

[exploited17]

Like 3 of those but won't touch the Bills game
GL

 

[Avocado33]

Like 3 of those but won't touch the Bills game
GL

They’re your team right? Makes sense

 

[Avocado33]

Grab em now


Bengals +7

49ers +3.5



Will provide analysis later in the week

 

[Avocado33]

6-4 through the Divisional. Counting regular season we are now 63-36-1

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: Bengals at Chiefs


Play: Bengals +7

I'm traveling to Kansas City for the first team to visit Arrowhead and watch my team try to dethrone the champs. Very excited for this experience, regardless of outcome. That said, I do expect the outcome to reflect a close game.

Cincinnati hasn't been playing their best ball in my opinion, but I think they show up and give the Chiefs all they can handle in the AFC Championship

One key to look at is the status of Honey Badger on KC's secondary. If he is out, I don't think the Chiefs can contain Burrow and the Bengals passing attack well. Hell, even if he does play, it will be a challenge.

This match-up is good for Cincinnati. Chiefs are going to try and be aggressive on the defensive front, and bring some heavy blitz packages. This could turn out to be very good for Cincinnati, should their offensive line at least not completely suck, because Burrow is will probably shred the Chiefs back end; Burrow is particularly excellent against the blitz.

Bengals could potentially create a bunch of favorable 1-on-1 match up is Spags decides to blitz heavily. That could turn nightmarish for the Chiefs, as the Bengals are absolutely loaded with weapons at the skill positions: Chase, Higgins, Mixon, Boyd, Uzomah.....it could get ugly quickly for that KC defense.

Now the bigger challenge will be how the Bengals defense holds up. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball decently and put some points up, though to Cincinnati's credit they have cornerbacks who can definitely hold their own. I think they can contain Mahommes just enough to make this a competitive ball game.

I think the weather helps both teams out, though I think it especially helps Cincinnati and makes Burrow more likely to have a great day.


Do the Bengals win outright? I don't know -- it will be tough. But this team is for real and belongs in this game, and I do expect them to play well and at the very least make it close.

 

[crownreserve]

I sure hope your right I want to see cinn in SB. The defense needs to protect burrow more 9 sacks

how anyone contains mahommes make me wonder

 

[Avocado33]

I sure hope your right I want to see cinn in SB. The defense needs to protect burrow more 9 sacks

how anyone contains mahommes make me wonder

I think we get a close game regardless. Maybe I’m wrong but I think Bengals should be able to shred the weak Chiefs secondary

KC’s DB health is very questionable too

 

[brendanjack]

I’m getting 7.5 at mgm -120 gonna wait and see if there’s more movement .

 

[Avocado33]

I’m getting 7.5 at mgm -120 gonna wait and see if there’s more movement .

Pound it

 

[woodypaige]

Hill was hurt last time they played. He's 100% and will be the difference in a blow out KC win.

 

[Avocado33]

Hill was hurt last time they played. He's 100% and will be the difference in a blow out KC win.

Hill doesn't play defense

 

[woodypaige]

But he does on offense. Double digit ass kicking coming for The Bungholes

 

[Avocado33]

But he does on offense. Double digit ass kicking coming for The Bungholes

I think we see a close game. Bengals can hang with the Chiefs, no doubt

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: 49ers at Rams

Play: 49ers +3.5



Go get it on the money line too. The 49ers are built to a beat a team like the Rams, which is a big reason why they have won six in a row against them.

I think Jimmy G could surprise some people here and have a decent stat line. Look for him to target Mitchell and Deebo on short routes out of the backfield, and Kittle quite a bit over the middle. Jennings is also developing into a key piece, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy throws a couple contested balls to him with success.

Rams are kind of a weird team with a lot of talent spread throughout, but their blown leads against both the Bucs and 49ers in Week 18 is concerning. This is a game where I think the road team has the significant coaching edge and the "psychological" edge, and that will prove to be in the difference.

This is not really a home game for the Rams, as the Rams have a pretty pathetic fan base. There will be a lot of red at SoFi stadium once again.

Getting 3.5 points on a neutral against a team you absolutely own? Yeah sign me up for that all day

 

[Avocado33]

Rams are 0-6 against Niners straight up last 6, and they were favored in 5 of the games

FWIW

 

[azbob]

Agree with those two picks. Even if they get a lead, you will have to rely on the KC defense to keep it...I don't trust that to happen. Strong possibility of a KC win and Cinn cover.
Jimmy is 5-1 in the playoffs. I think Stafford had his best game last week...at least the first half of last week and I think we see more of his second half performance than reaching another level. SF play calling is exceptional and will negate the strengths of the LAR defense. No home field advantage for the Rams.

 

[Avocado33]

Glad SF held em to a field goal there

2-0

Bengals are gonna beat the Rams

 

[her288]

No wonder you are the Champ this year.