Avocado's 2022 NFL Playoffs

[Avocado33]

I will be posting a pick ATS for every game on the board. I have some opinions on totals as well, but not going to make official plays on those because I am not as sharp on those.

I had a nice season in the contest here, going 57-32-1. That either means I am not stupid, or I am due for a cold stretch. So tail/fade accordingly

 

[Avocado33]

Saturday: Raiders at Bengals


Play: Bengals -5.5


I am a Cincinnati fan and normally avoid games with my team, but I do like the Bengals here. The Raiders are on a nice run, and definitely have the potential to keep it close with a QB like Carr. But the Bengals simply have the better team, and they're at home.

There's a pretty big discrepancy as far as weapons go on offense. Cincy has more weapons at skill positions, and I would say they have the better quarterback as well (though Carr is obviously pretty damn good in his own right). I don't have much faith in either team's defense being able to truly impose their will, but I have more faith in Cincy's defensive personnel to keep LV's skill guys in check than the other way around.

One stat that I like is that the Bengals are outscoring their opponents by an average of about 5 points per game (8th in NFL) while the Raiders are being outscored be average of 4 points per game (23rd in NFL). Even with identical records, it tells me over the course of the season that the Bengals were the better team.

The lack of Wild Card success scares me as a Bengals fan for sure; there's always reason to be skeptical about a team that gets to the same spot FIVE SEASONS IN A ROW and can't come up with a single win. But this team is different, and it sure feels like the culture is changing.

 

[Avocado33]

Saturday: Patriots at Bills


Play: Patriots +4


I am really looking forward to this game/grudge match. I think Buffalo has a lot going for it here, and overall has the better roster. But on another cold night in Orchard Park in a playoff situation, I see this being a very tight game.

Mac Jones will have to make some throws this time for the Patriots to pull it out, though I think New England can probably get away with a run-heavy game plan again. They have a clear advantage in the trenches, and think they can leverage that to make this another low-scoring affair like the one we saw last time in Buffalo.

The major challenge for the Patriots will be containing Josh Allen. They were able to pretty well in that first game, but Allen put on a masterpiece in that second match-up. While it will be hard to replicate that performance again, I think Allen should be able to have a pretty good game here.

Despite that, I think this has a makings of a tight game that could be decided by a field goal in either direction. The coaching advantage that New England has is without question, and I think will play a big role here. This team is going to be ready to play at or near its best, especially after a letdown in Miami this past week.

Gut feeling is Patriots find a way to win this one. While I'm not as confident in that, I think the spread play is the Pats taking the points.

 

[betfusion]

Saturday: Patriots at Bills


Play: Patriots +4


I am really looking forward to this game/grudge match. I think Buffalo has a lot going for it here, and overall has the better roster. But on another cold night in Orchard Park in a playoff situation, I see this being a very tight game.

Mac Jones will have to make some throws this time for the Patriots to pull it out, though I think New England can probably get away with a run-heavy game plan again. They have a clear advantage in the trenches, and think they can leverage that to make this another low-scoring affair like the one we saw last time in Buffalo.

The major challenge for the Patriots will be containing Josh Allen. They were able to pretty well in that first game, but Allen put on a masterpiece in that second match-up. While it will be hard to replicate that performance again, I think Allen should be able to have a pretty good game here.

Despite that, I think this has a makings of a tight game that could be decided by a field goal in either direction. The coaching advantage that New England has is without question, and I think will play a big role here. This team is going to be ready to play at or near its best, especially after a letdown in Miami this past week.

Gut feeling is Patriots find a way to win this one. While I'm not as confident in that, I think the spread play is the Pats taking the points.

Avocado, great info; especially the cold weather. I’m a long time lurker and have tailed you a lot. I was at the last Patriots Bills game and the Bills controlled the trenches unlike the first game. In addition, the Patriots D line anchor will most likely be out- this is huge. The last time the teams played Beasley was also out, but he will be playing.

BoL

 

[azbob]

Very nice season. Do you know Mixon's status? That is a big deal for me as there is a difference between throwing the ball and having to throw the ball. Might look at the over if he is not playing. Line seems to be moving to LV (6.5 to 5.5).

 

[brendanjack]

I’m a little apprehensive with rookie Mack Jones in this situation. Pats won here in regular season I could see Allen coming Out firing. Any trailing in this game by patriots could force Mack into making some real bad decisions especially under elimination competition . You have had an excellent season and been tailing you for a few years on and off . Good luck this post Season glad to see you win that contest and hit some good coin. How ever dogs have always been the trend wildcard weekend maybe I will go small on pats + points Saturday and see if it continues .

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: Eagles at Bucs

Play: Bucs -8.5

I like Tampa a lot here. Philly has had a nice season and I'm not completely discounting them from being able to make this a good game, but I don't think they have enough to win here.

Bucs are having some key guys return, and think it will help them a lot. I also think Tampa has the type of defense that can neutralize Philly's run game. Hurts is going to have to do too much to keep them afloat.

I also don't see how the Eagles can contain Brady and the passing game - even without Godwin and AB. Some think Bucs will be sluggish here as a first round game -- similar to the Washington game in last playoffs. I don't see that happening at here. Tampa has been a strong team at home, and I think they are gonna come out and play well from the jump.

Also worth considering taking the over.

 

[Avocado33]

Avocado, great info; especially the cold weather. I’m a long time lurker and have tailed you a lot. I was at the last Patriots Bills game and the Bills controlled the trenches unlike the first game. In addition, the Patriots D line anchor will most likely be out- this is huge. The last time the teams played Beasley was also out, but he will be playing.

BoL

Thanks for the words, and good luck to you

Yeah I think Buffalo has the better team overall. I just think in a playoff scenario with Belichick at the helm, and freezing cold temps, I like New England to make this a tight game at least. Don't be surprised if Buffalo wins, but New England covers. The number just seems a tad high here. I think this should have been Bills -2.5 or 3.

Gut feeling is Patriots win SU somehow.

 

[Avocado33]

Very nice season. Do you know Mixon's status? That is a big deal for me as there is a difference between throwing the ball and having to throw the ball. Might look at the over if he is not playing. Line seems to be moving to LV (6.5 to 5.5).

Thanks man.

It sounds like Mixon is good to go. It was COVID protocol I believe and he is 100% healthy.

I think he is a key contributor in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if he has 50+ receiving yards in this game on 5-6 catches, to go along with a decent rushing stat line

 

[Avocado33]

I’m a little apprehensive with rookie Mack Jones in this situation. Pats won here in regular season I could see Allen coming Out firing. Any trailing in this game by patriots could force Mack into making some real bad decisions especially under elimination competition . You have had an excellent season and been tailing you for a few years on and off . Good luck this post Season glad to see you win that contest and hit some good coin. How ever dogs have always been the trend wildcard weekend maybe I will go small on pats + points Saturday and see if it continues .

Thank you and good luck to you

I actually have more faith in Mac than a lot of people seem to -- particularly when it comes to decision-making. I guess maybe it's just a hunch, given he has no playoff experience, but he has for the most part been a trustworthy QB -- albeit with a low-ish ceiling. I think he will be smart with the ball in this game, though again I don't expect him to go off or anything like.

I see a stat line like 15-22, 160 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int

Just a guess

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck to the champ.

 

[Avocado33]

Good luck to the champ.

You think Dr Know It All will tail?

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: 49ers at Cowboys


Play: Cowboys -3


I have been pretty high on SF all year long and picked them about mid year to be a dark horse to possibly make a run to the NFC Championship game. But I don't love them in this match-up here.

While I think this probably the toughest match-up on the board, I lean towards Dallas for a couple of key reasons. The main one is that I think Dak and the wide receiving corp of the Cowboys can absolutely exploit the 49ers weakness -- their secondary. While the recipe for Dallas' success has often been having a strong running game and relying less on Dak having to throw a lot, I think this could be a game where Dak carries them.

I don't love the coaching match-up here from Dallas' perspective, and I think the 49ers are one of those teams that it should it can fight back after a slow start, but I think the biggest mismatch on the field on Sunday will be the passing offense of Dallas vs the secondary of the 49ers. That will outweigh any other match-up, in my view.

I'll say that this is tough game that I could see going either way, but I'm leaning Dallas here

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: Steelers at Chiefs


Play: Steelers +13


This is another game I don't love, but I will side with Pittsburgh here.

The Chiefs put a beating on them last time, but I think the Steelers put up more of a fight here. I actually think they will surprise some people by having some success offensively. The perception is that KC has a good defense now, but I'm not so sure about that. The Chiefs actually rank 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.9. They're below average against both the run and the pass.

I think Pittsburgh can see some success if they slow the game down and lean more heavily on Harris. If they control the clock and avoid making costly mistakes, they should be able to keep this reasonably competitive.

I also love Tomlin as a huge underdog. His teams perform well as any type of dog typically, and I think the particularly big number here in a playoff situation makes me more tempted to take Tomlin's team.

 

[Avocado33]

Monday: Cardinals at Rams


Play: Rams -4


Yet another game I don't love, but I'm picking them all!

I think Arizona has regressed close to who it truly is: a good team with talented, strike-quickly pieces. But they're not a legitimate contender in my view. The numbers show a team that thrived off of turnovers, but when that well goes dry, they are just an above average team.

The Rams have been a little streaky, but I think this is a nice bounce back spot for them. Overall, they're still a really good football team with an offense that can move the ball and a defense that has stars and generally plays well as a group. There is a decent amount of pressure on Stafford in this game, but I think he plays a solid game and gets his first playoff win. I don't love this team long-term, but I think they make the Divisional Round

I'd also consider the under here if you're gonna think about playing the total.

 

[Avocado33]

In summation, Wild Card plays:

Bengals -5.5
Patriots +4
Bucs -8.5
Cowboys -3
Steelers +13
Rams -4

 

[Avocado33]

3-3 and lucky to be that in my opinion. Sorry everyone

I've watched the lines on these Divisional games a little bit but haven't pulled the trigger on anything

 

[Avocado33]

On to the Divisional Round....


Saturday: Bengals at Titans


Play: Bengals +3.5


It will be interesting to see where this line moves, but I think Cincinnati has a great chance to win this game outright. I believe they are the slightly better team.

To me it comes down to turnovers. The Bengals have really cleaned this up recently, especially Burrow when it comes to throwing interceptions. He led the league at one point with 14, but he hasn't thrown one since. The Titans meanwhile have had a few games where they've been careless in the ball and have given it away a lot, and I wouldn't be shocked if Tannehill made a mistake or two here.

Adding Henry back is nice for the Titans, but I wouldn't be shocked if he seems a little rusty in this particular game. His return has the potential to help them, especially if the Bengals' inconsistent run defense is leaky, but I wouldn't count on Henry being a huge game-changer.


Bengals got the playoff monkey off their back, and now are playing loose and with little to lose. I think they get it done here, or at least keep it within a field goal.

 

[Avocado33]

Saturday: 49ers at Packers


Play: 49ers +6


Two things I like about SF a lot in this match-up

The 49ers have a good running game with a tremendous offensive line, and Green Bay has struggled mightily against teams with good running attacks. Their late season game against the Browns is a good example of this. They managed to escape the game at Lambeau by just 2 points, and Cleveland really looked like the better team that day despite Baker's flurry of interceptions. I expect the Niners' run game to be able to do similar things, and even the error-prone Jimmy G will likely play much better than Baker

I also think the weather weirdly favors the 49ers in this match-up, partly because of the reasons described above about the running game. The better running team tends to have the edge in a cold game, even if it's not a snowy/soggy field. I'm not sure how much the weather will limit Rodgers through the air, but I would think he probably won't play to his max level in these conditions.

One thing I don't love is Rodgers vs. the 49ers secondary. That is a weak secondary, and Rodgers -- if conditions don't play a huge factor with him -- should be able to thread the needle a bit.

Another thing to watch is a healthy Packers offensive line vs a strong 49ers defensive line. It should be a great a battle there.

At the end of the day, I side with SF

 

[Avocado33]

Sunday: Rams at Bucs


Play: Bucs -3

Would've loved to see 2.5, but still going with the Bucs here.

This line, in my view, is partially an overreaction to the wild card game. Reality tells us that Stafford was very shaky down the final stretch of the season. He is going to have to do a lot more in this game than he did against Arizona. I believe the Bucs will be able to limit the Rams' running game, forcing Stafford to throw way more than 17 times. I expect Stafford to do what he does: make some nice throws, but also make some key mistakes

On the other end, it's looking like Fournette should play this time. That is a big deal, even if he is relatively limited in terms of volume. Mix in the fact that this is a redemption game of sorts from earlier this year, and I really Tampa to get it done