Author's NCAA Basketball 2023-24

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Noticed there was an oddly timed early game tomorrow so I figured I would cap it before digging into the entire card. Was a little surprised I found a good play, that led me to specifically cap another game as well and that was good too. Haven't been giving all my 2X plays out because I don't like suggesting to others that they shift their wager size but these plays are sort of complimentary so I put them both here.

2X #306598 UL-Monroe/Jacksonville over 138.5
Was on the over the last time UL-Monroe played and some might have thought that was due to Lamar (who has been playing overs) but it was actually due to the Warhawks. ULM has faced a pretty tough schedule but the cue is in the level of defensive talent they've gone up against. ULM has faced the #1, #38, #42, and #157 defenses and the #157 was Sam Houston St. whose sub-metrics show they might be even better than their ranking. That's a tough slate to go against for a mediocre team like ULM. In the games they've faced vs poor defenses (#323, #359, #328) they've scored 74,74, 73 points....that's pretty consistent. Here they face the #311 defense and I think we can expect similar results. Jacksonville is the better team and possess the better offense with a legit scorer in G McCray (17.5 ppg) who should get his in this matchup. The Dolphins have faced 4 poor defensive teams (#341, #355, #341, #337) and face another one here (#300), in those games they've averaged 84 ppg and the games have played to an average of 163.5. This is a 2X at this number and would be a regular play up to 142.5.

2X #306614 Southern Miss/Lamar over 148.5
Other half of our previous play but a good setup here too. Southern Miss has faced 2 poor defensive teams this year (#356, #359) and have scored 86.5 ppg in those matchups. They face another weak defensive team in Lamar (#328) so expecting similar results is not unreasonable. The Golden Eagles are a bit top heavy on offense but have 3 sturdy scorers (15.4 ppg, 15.1 ppg, 13.7 ppg) who should flourish in this matchup. Lamar has played only one team with a comparable pace to Southern Miss (#247) and that was last time out vs ULM (#274), with that game playing to 170 and going over. I like some of the sub-metrics for this game and my EPTT is 157.5. I'll play over any number below 152.5 (which is what the number should be).

#876 Murray St./Arkansas-LR over 151
#890 Eastern Washington/Cal Poly over 145.5
 
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2X Totals = 6-4 60.0%. +3.2 units
Totals = 61-54-1 53.4%. +2.2 units
Sides = 18-20-2 47.4%. -4.05 units

Looks like a really deep card and I like quite a few of the extra games. Let's start with these but I will definitely be adding:

2X #306502 FGCU/Ga. Southern over 140.5
#306504 Niagara/Binghampton over 144.5
#306506 USC/Alabama St. over 149.5
#306508 Presbyterian/Furman over 154.5
 
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#608 Morehead St./Indiana over 139.5
#306526 UNCG/High Point over 148
#614 Miami (OH)/Wright St. under 157.5
#306524 Merrimack/Cincinnati over 141.5
#306534 N. Florida/FSU over 151.5
 
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2X Totals = 6-5 54.6%. +1.0 units
Totals = 62-61-1 50.4%. -4.5 units
Sides = 18-20-2 47.4%. -4.05 units

Some terrible capping. I deserved a better fate in both the Indiana and Niagara games as game/score and end of game scenarios played out perfectly to stall the totals...both went under by a possession. The rest were terrible bets including 5 games that never had a chance from the tip. I liked the card yesterday too and had been running well. Erased all that in one day.

One early one for today:

#654 UC San Diego/California over 143.5 lots of scoring options between these two squads. Let's hope this start time is late enough to avoid the 1st half laziness we've seen in some of the other early start games for this week.
 
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2X Totals = 6-5 54.6%. +1.0 units
Totals = 62-62-1 50.0%. -5.6 units
Sides = 18-20-2 47.4%. -4.05 units

#720 N. Colorado/Air Force over 137.5
#784 TCU/Old Dominion over 147.5
2X #306600 Jacksonville/Purdue over 147.5


#306593 New Hampshire +6 (-120)
 
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For 12-22-23:

This one crept up to my buy price. Against the market and many others.

#306634 Drexel/Bryant under 137
 
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2X Totals = 7-5 58.3%. +3.0 units
Totals = 65-66-1 49.6%. -7.0 units
Sides = 19-20-2 48.7%. -3.05 units

Updated through the start of today's games.

#306640 James Madison/Morgan St. over 160
#306638 Vermont/Miami (OH) over 137.5
 
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2X Totals = 7-5 58.3%. +3.0 units
Totals = 68-68-1 50.0%. -6.1 units
Sides = 19-21-2 47.5%. -4.36 units

#624 Duquesne/Santa Clara over 153
I know it's simplified and so much of today's game relies on the 3 point shot. But this wager will literally come down to 3 point attempts and 3 point %. I think we'll see a 10% increase in both teams season averages on attempts, if they shoot the same % we'll get over. The number is correct and playing the shooting setup.
 

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author....BOL with all your Sat. action....
you and your family have a great Christmas weekend....indy
 
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That was a bit crazy. Been a while since I saw a game like that. 51 fouls called in 40 minute and they weren't all at the end, there was consistent constant fouling the entire game and no one could get a rhythm because the game was constantly interrupted. Averaged a foul called every 45 seconds. Neither team shot FT's well but when it was needed, the last shooter knocked them both down to get to 154.
 
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2X Totals = 7-5 58.3%. +3.0 units
Totals = 69-68-1 50.4%. -5.1 units
Sides = 19-21-2 47.5%. -4.36 units
 
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Squeeker in the first game, lol. I don't do this often but like both sides of the next game:

#646 Hawaii +6.5
#646 TCU/Hawaii over 147.5
 
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2X Totals = 7-5 58.3%. +3.0 units
Totals = 69-70-1 49.6%. -7.3 units
Sides = 19-22-2 46.3%. -5.46 units
 

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