Author NBA Season 2024-25

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We'll be back at it again, hopefully with bette results. Feel like I did a good job of capping LY but my CLV gains simply didn't translate to wagering W's. Possibly some short term variance? We'll talk the positives from last season and try to do better this year.

For 10-22:

Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#504 Minnesota T'Wolves/LA Lakers OVER 221.5

Some interesting betting patterns on this one to open the season. The opener (224.5) was a mistake and got bet down, rightfully so. It crashed to 219 and has been steadily climbing back up. Normally, I would be leery of betting an OVER in this situation as the common thinking would be that sharps bet the opener down and the public, who love over bets, is driving it back up. You don't want to side with the public on a move like that. However, watching markets and learning betting patterns and timing can give you different insights. Here, I see a group that wanted to play a particular number and drove the market to get it. You can do this more easily on short cards, early in the season when the market is immature. I am worse than the 219 and 219.5 that they wanted to plays but we still gain value from the opener and, I feel, are on the the slow-moving sharp side betting a number that will close higher. Lebron and AD will never be healthier during the season than they are right now and this is the sort of situation that Lebron has always thrived in. I think he'll push an all-out effort here, especially on the offensive end, for the home crowd and in his debut with his son. The T'Wolves are still a very good defensive team but the change from KAT to Julius Randle should improve their offense and up their pace. These two teams met twice LY, after Anthony Edwards began his ascension to superstardom, the OVER in those games hit both times playing to an average of 236.5 ppg. Edwards is a young enigmatic player who will be dually motivated here. I don't think he liked his backseat status during the Olympics and he beefed with Magic Johnson, who should be in attendance for this one, over the summer. This might be a crush game for Edwards to prove a point with a huge TV audience in tow.
 

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author......BOL with your play tonight buddy.....
have a great season.......indy
 
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Here we go again, more great CLV....poor results. Some solid opening night home dogs available, so more sides than usual.

For 10-23:

#512 Philadelphia 76'ers +4
#514 Cleveland/Toronto Under 225.5
#520 Utah Moneyline (+125) (Circa)
#522 LA Clippers +5.5

NBA 2024-25 Record:

Totals Over = 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units ~ CLV +2.5
 
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This line is ridiculous.

#530 2X Oklahoma City/Denver Under 227.5

NBA 2024-25 Record:

NBA Dogs (Pk to +3)
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units ~ CLV +1.0
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units ~ CLV +2.5
Totals Under = 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units ~CLV +0.5

Cumulative = 1-4 = 20.0% = -3.3 units ~ CLV +4.0
 
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That's better.

NBA 2024-25 Record:

NBA Dogs (Pk to +3)
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units ~ CLV +1.0
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units ~ CLV +2.5
Totals Under = 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units ~CLV +0.5
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0

Cumulative = 2-4 = 33.3% = -1.3 units ~ CLV +3.0
 
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Overnights for 10-28:

#514 2X Washington/Atlanta OVER 231.5
#522 Cleveland/NY Knicks UNDER 233.5
#528 Utah/Dallas UNDER 234.5
#530 LA Lakers/Phoenix OVER 226.5
 
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Solid movement our way on all 4 overnight totals.

Rare back to back games vs the same opponent. We had SA on the first round and got the winner, coming back with the opposite side here.

#523 Houston -2 (-120)
 
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NBA 2024-25 Record:

NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units ~ CLV +1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units ~ CLV +1.0
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 0 - 3 = 0.0% = -3.3 units ~ CLV +4.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~CLV +3.5
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0

Cumulative = 8-8 = 50.0% = +1.3 units ~ CLV +13.5
CLV per wager = +0.84 ppg
 
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My numbers told me to play the UNDER in the Dallas/Minnesota game but I stayed away because my intuition says this may be a higher scoring spot. Total has trended down which confirms my desire to stay away, I do see the potential for some points though and found a prop I think is wagerable.

Kyrie Irving OVER 20.5 points scored
I would expect Kyrie to reach 21 points in this matchup about 70% of the time which gives us good value. Even though Kyrie has started slowly, possibly due to the integration of Klay Thompson, he is trending upward scoring 15, 22, and 23 points so far TY. Better is his recent relevant history vs the Timberwolves in which he has scored 30+ in 4 of the last 5 meetings he's played in. I made the break-even number here 22.89 points and think our wager offers value.
 
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Minor adjustment to the record, money line wagers won't be effected by the CLV so they won't be included in the tally to do so. Same with prop wagers. I am only concerned with CLV vs the spread.

NBA 2024-25 Record:

NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units ~ CLV +1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units ~ CLV +2.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 0 - 3 = 0.0% = -3.3 units ~ CLV +4.5
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 1 - 0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~CLV +3.5
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 1 -0 = 100% = +1.0 units

Cumulative = 10-8 = 55.6% = +3.3 units ~ CLV +15
CLV per wager = +0.94 ppg
 
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For 10-30:

#550 2X Detroit/Philadelphia OVER 216
#558 San Antonio/Oklahoma City OVER 220.5
#559 New Orleans +1.5
 
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Should have waited to wager on the Pelicans, recency bias has the public betting the Warriors up heavily. Found one prop I like for tonight.

LeBron James OVER 22.5 points scored
Paying a little of a premium to make this wager. I made the break even number 24.2 though and would expect Lebron to reach 23 points about 65% of the time. Lebron has performed within a tight window recently vs his former team, averaging 23.5 ppg in his last 4 meetings with a low of 21 and high of 27. Lebron is a supreme competitor and returning to Cleveland, with his son now on the team, I'd expect maximum effort and for him to want to showcase his skills. Normally that might mean his all-around game but here, I think it might mean scoring specifically. I think we'll see a bump in his effort and focus on the offensive side and if his minutes stay consistent (34 mpg so far in 2024) then he'll have a more than reasonable shot to get this number. Lebron is off a poor offensive performance where he scored just 11 points on 3-14 shooting. Since the beginning of last year, Lebron has 13 instances where he's scored between 10-19 points ("off" nights for him), in the following game Lebron has bounced back to average 29.3 ppg and exceeded the 22.5 ppg needed here on 11 of 13 occasions. With a total of 226.5 and the situation, I'm willing to give this one a shot.
 
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Brooklyn finished strong. Bulls style is going to wear on them in the 4th quarter when they have a shortened bench due to injuries.

NBA 2024-25 Record:

NBA Faves (-1 to -3) = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units ~ CLV +0,0
NBA Dogs (Pk to +3) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units ~ CLV -1.0
NBA Dogs (+3.5 to +7) = 2-1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units ~ CLV +2.5
NBA Dogs (+7.5 to +9.5)
NBA Dogs (+10 or >)
NBA Moneylne Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
NBA Moneyline Faves
Totals Over = 0 - 4 = 0.0% = -4.4 units ~ CLV +5.0
Totals Under = 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +5.5
2X Totals Over = 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units ~CLV +7.0
2X Totals Under = 1-0 = 100% = +2 units ~CLV -1.0
Prop bets = 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
Live wagers = 1 - 0 = 100% = +1.0 units

Cumulative = 12-11 = 52.2% = +0.9 units ~ CLV +20
CLV per wager = +1.05 ppg
 

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