2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 52-59-1 46.9%. -12.8 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 5-0 100% +5.0 units
Betting at the peak got me the under in the Mavs game, lots of people won on their over bets but very few with under wagers.....solid market timing for me.
Overnights for 12-26-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#506 Minnesota/Oklahoma City over 225.5
These two have met frequently over the last couple of seasons and the TWolves have been absolutely dominant. Minnesota has gone 9-1 SU the last 10 meetings with an average MOV of 16.9 ppg. In those same 10 meetings, OKC has been held to an average of just 105.5 ppg. They have played under the total in 6 of the last 7 meetings. So for this game, let's make OKC a 4 point fave and list the total at 225.5. That combination makes no sense regardless of any potential injury concerns.
Totals = 52-59-1 46.9%. -12.8 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 5-0 100% +5.0 units
Betting at the peak got me the under in the Mavs game, lots of people won on their over bets but very few with under wagers.....solid market timing for me.
Overnights for 12-26-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#506 Minnesota/Oklahoma City over 225.5
These two have met frequently over the last couple of seasons and the TWolves have been absolutely dominant. Minnesota has gone 9-1 SU the last 10 meetings with an average MOV of 16.9 ppg. In those same 10 meetings, OKC has been held to an average of just 105.5 ppg. They have played under the total in 6 of the last 7 meetings. So for this game, let's make OKC a 4 point fave and list the total at 225.5. That combination makes no sense regardless of any potential injury concerns.
Dave, we are looking to bet those games OVER the total. I'm calling them ridiculous overs because basically they are contrarian plays that play to the nature of the way the 2023-24 season has been going. These are games where the original total makes little sense and traditional technical handicapping methods actually like the other side. Technical handicapping of under totals has been producing terrible results so I've found a method to sniff out some overs and try to find some winners. Sorry for any confusion.
Thanks to phokingood for giving you the right answer and chiming in when I couldn't.
FYI for you guys too, despite my poor record I've been picking up a ton of Closing Line Value this year so it's best to bet these early as they generally move my way. I hope I can start finding some winners for everyone.
#517 Charlotte/LA Clippers over 226
Kawhi is out. It impacts the Clippers offensively but damages them on the defensive end also. He is the only one who plays with any tenacity on the Clippers side and with the loose and undisciplined Hornets as an opponent the remaining Clippers should see this as a glorified scrimmage.
Kawhi is out. It impacts the Clippers offensively but damages them on the defensive end also. He is the only one who plays with any tenacity on the Clippers side and with the loose and undisciplined Hornets as an opponent the remaining Clippers should see this as a glorified scrimmage.
2X Totals = 2-2 50.0%. -0.4 units
Totals = 52-61-1 46.0%. -15.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 6-0 100% +6.0 units
CLV staring on 12-26-23
Games = 3
Closing line value overs = +7.5 (1-1)
Closing line value under = +1 (0-1)
Probably won't get much today as I'm a little later to the game that usual, but I'm going to start tracking my closing line value. Yesterday picked up +8.5 points of CLV. Minnesota game really moved our way closing 5 points higher and betting the under at peak produced a loser but gained a few points of CLV. I keep waiting for the CLV to impact my winning % but it doesn't seem to be doing so because betting under has been so precarious regardless of any value created.
2X #528 Phoenix/Houston over 226
2X #520 Philadelphia/Orlando over 228.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#530 Cleveland/Dallas over 230.5
Cleveland one of the slowest paced teams in the league and they've struggled to score when quality G Mitchell is not on the floor. Mitchell is a GTD for this game, has been OUT recently, and is not expected to play here. G Irving (23 ppg) is OUT for the Mavs. With Irving out these two teams will have lineups that coincide with 6 relevant recent meetings. In those 6 meetings, the average total has been listed at just 215. Despite that ridiculously low number, 4 of the 6 games have played under the total, with only one of them exceeding this total and playing to an average combined score of 208.3 in regulation. With all that noted, and the real possibility that PG Doncic (33.5 ppg & an MVP candidate) could sit here the bookmakers still opened this total at 231.5. This line hints at an explosion spot for the Cavs offense.
Obviously, I like the small board today. I did get the Philly game earlier at 225.5 but did not have time to post so we'll go vs the number widely available right now.
Totals = 52-61-1 46.0%. -15.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 6-0 100% +6.0 units
CLV staring on 12-26-23
Games = 3
Closing line value overs = +7.5 (1-1)
Closing line value under = +1 (0-1)
Probably won't get much today as I'm a little later to the game that usual, but I'm going to start tracking my closing line value. Yesterday picked up +8.5 points of CLV. Minnesota game really moved our way closing 5 points higher and betting the under at peak produced a loser but gained a few points of CLV. I keep waiting for the CLV to impact my winning % but it doesn't seem to be doing so because betting under has been so precarious regardless of any value created.
2X #528 Phoenix/Houston over 226
2X #520 Philadelphia/Orlando over 228.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#530 Cleveland/Dallas over 230.5
Cleveland one of the slowest paced teams in the league and they've struggled to score when quality G Mitchell is not on the floor. Mitchell is a GTD for this game, has been OUT recently, and is not expected to play here. G Irving (23 ppg) is OUT for the Mavs. With Irving out these two teams will have lineups that coincide with 6 relevant recent meetings. In those 6 meetings, the average total has been listed at just 215. Despite that ridiculously low number, 4 of the 6 games have played under the total, with only one of them exceeding this total and playing to an average combined score of 208.3 in regulation. With all that noted, and the real possibility that PG Doncic (33.5 ppg & an MVP candidate) could sit here the bookmakers still opened this total at 231.5. This line hints at an explosion spot for the Cavs offense.
Obviously, I like the small board today. I did get the Philly game earlier at 225.5 but did not have time to post so we'll go vs the number widely available right now.
You're right about CLV being neutralized on unders with so many games going over. I don't cap the NBA but I've been observing the incredible preponderance of overs, and how the openers get bet up. It reminds me a lot of the pandemic year in MLB. The rules were changed and the season was compressed. The result was nothing but overs. It was hard to explain why, but it just kept happening, maybe all the way through the season. I don't know, I quit watching or trying to cap things somewhere along the way.
I haven't watched much NBA until this past week when I've had some time. I barely recognize the game. Teams don't play defense anymore. When they try to play defense in the paint, they get called for fouls with the littlest bit of contact. I suppose that proliferates into not even trying to play defense. I guess that's what the NBA wants, massive scoring, threes and dunks. For me, it's not enjoyable at all. I'd prefer to watch college basketball. At least they allow some contact in the paint.
I grew up watching the Celtics Lakers rivalry with the contrasting styles of the defensively oriented Eastern teams against the run and gun Western teams lead by the showtime Lakers. I loved the contrast. Both styles could succeed. Then there was Michael Jordan and the Piston bad boy era. That level of defense was a bit extreme, but it was still an interesting contrast to the norm. Today’s game has become totally homogenized -- teams have to shoot the three and athletically attack the paint, with some variability on how much of each. There's no uniqueness to teams anymore. In today's game, the Pistons bad boy team would be 0-82 -- Lambier, Rodman, and Mahorn would be suspended for more games than they would play.
I haven't watched much NBA until this past week when I've had some time. I barely recognize the game. Teams don't play defense anymore. When they try to play defense in the paint, they get called for fouls with the littlest bit of contact. I suppose that proliferates into not even trying to play defense. I guess that's what the NBA wants, massive scoring, threes and dunks. For me, it's not enjoyable at all. I'd prefer to watch college basketball. At least they allow some contact in the paint.
I grew up watching the Celtics Lakers rivalry with the contrasting styles of the defensively oriented Eastern teams against the run and gun Western teams lead by the showtime Lakers. I loved the contrast. Both styles could succeed. Then there was Michael Jordan and the Piston bad boy era. That level of defense was a bit extreme, but it was still an interesting contrast to the norm. Today’s game has become totally homogenized -- teams have to shoot the three and athletically attack the paint, with some variability on how much of each. There's no uniqueness to teams anymore. In today's game, the Pistons bad boy team would be 0-82 -- Lambier, Rodman, and Mahorn would be suspended for more games than they would play.
Spiderman777, yeah, I probably waited to late to adjust but playing only overs on the overnights and then waiting to bet any under at peak closer to game time has worked a little. Even that has not worked very well for the under though. I've gotten some great numbers and gotten beat. When you do get a winner, like I did with an under 244 wager that had been bet up 13.5 points the other day, it comes by 2 points and I had to survive a couple of shots that could have beaten me. Historically I have been an under bettor in the NBA and over bettor in CBB...I've had to adjust in the NBA this year and I was too slow to move. Too many old prejudices to kick away and my numbers just kept putting me on under wagers.
I can't watch this new version either, it's tough. There is no resistance once a player gets deep into the lane and on offensive rebounds most defensive teams just conceded the putback to avoid kick-outs for 3's...it's unbelievable to watch.
I can't watch this new version either, it's tough. There is no resistance once a player gets deep into the lane and on offensive rebounds most defensive teams just conceded the putback to avoid kick-outs for 3's...it's unbelievable to watch.
2X Totals = 3-3 50.0%. -0.6 units
Totals = 52-61-1 46.0%. -15.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 6-1 85.7% +4.9 units
CLV staring on 12-26-23
Games = 6
Closing line value overs = +8 (2-3)
Closing line value under = +1 (0-1)
Well, the run for the ridiculous overs ended in appropriate fashion. Needed just a 105 point 2nd half after a great start & just couldn't get there.
Overnights for 12-28-23:
2X #544 Miami/Golden St. over 225.5
Totals = 52-61-1 46.0%. -15.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 6-1 85.7% +4.9 units
CLV staring on 12-26-23
Games = 6
Closing line value overs = +8 (2-3)
Closing line value under = +1 (0-1)
Well, the run for the ridiculous overs ended in appropriate fashion. Needed just a 105 point 2nd half after a great start & just couldn't get there.
Overnights for 12-28-23:
2X #544 Miami/Golden St. over 225.5
Already have some solid CLV from my overnight. Lines moving a lot today and creating more opportunities than I had on the overnights.
#536 Utah/New Orleans under 240
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#540 Memphis/Denver over 223.5
Rare matchup of two teams during the 2023-24 NBA season that both lean heavily to the under. Memphis is 12-17 O/U, and has continued that trend since the reinstitution of Ja Morant, and Denver is 11-21 O/U. These two teams have seen the under hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings and in 5 straight. This game has been bet down 3 points from the opener on the news that Morant is unlikely to play. Notable here is that PF Gordon will miss for the Nuggets. Earlier in the year when he missed time and the Nuggets played more lineups with Porter, Jr, Denver had their only stretch of games where the over was viable. Ridiculous to think that with the strong under history between these two and with each team missing a highly productive offensive player that this game could go over the total. That's just the type of thinking this wager has gone against and we've picked up 3 full points of line value.
#536 Utah/New Orleans under 240
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#540 Memphis/Denver over 223.5
Rare matchup of two teams during the 2023-24 NBA season that both lean heavily to the under. Memphis is 12-17 O/U, and has continued that trend since the reinstitution of Ja Morant, and Denver is 11-21 O/U. These two teams have seen the under hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings and in 5 straight. This game has been bet down 3 points from the opener on the news that Morant is unlikely to play. Notable here is that PF Gordon will miss for the Nuggets. Earlier in the year when he missed time and the Nuggets played more lineups with Porter, Jr, Denver had their only stretch of games where the over was viable. Ridiculous to think that with the strong under history between these two and with each team missing a highly productive offensive player that this game could go over the total. That's just the type of thinking this wager has gone against and we've picked up 3 full points of line value.
2X Totals = 3-4 42.9%. -2.8 units
Totals = 53-61-1 46.5%. -14.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 9
Closing line value overs = +17.5 (3-4)
Closing line value under = +3.5 (1-1)
Picked up an amazing 6.5 points of CLV on our 2X play last night.....and it lost. That's how this season has been going. That was a fantastic bet from all perspectives that just didn't produce results. I can't do it much better than that.
For 12-29-23:
#550 New York/Orlando over 226.5
#554 Milwaukee/Cleveland under 239.5
#558 Philadelphia/Houston over 223.5
#566 Memphis/LA Clippers over 225.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
2X #556 Toronto/Boston over 224.5
These two teams have 7 relevant meetings over the last 2 seasons, those games are 5-1-1 for the under, with the lone over coming by a 1/2 point. Those 7 games have seen remarkably consistent posted totals of 225, 222.5, 223, 223.5, 225.5, 228, and 211.5, with the average being 222.5, but playing to an average score of just 212.6. So, with that in mind, and the ridiculous over nature of the NBA this season, this posted total comes out at 224.5 and sees little movement? The Celtics had to put a lot of effort into their OT win last night vs the lowly Pistons and as a result their entire starting lineup is either listed as GTD or OUT for this matchup. Surprisingly, one of the sets of numbers I run for these games made this total 229.5. So, one of my numbers likes over, I like the situational setup off the Celtics OT win, and this fits the contrarian parameters of our ridiculous OVER plays.
Totals = 53-61-1 46.5%. -14.0 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 9
Closing line value overs = +17.5 (3-4)
Closing line value under = +3.5 (1-1)
Picked up an amazing 6.5 points of CLV on our 2X play last night.....and it lost. That's how this season has been going. That was a fantastic bet from all perspectives that just didn't produce results. I can't do it much better than that.
For 12-29-23:
#550 New York/Orlando over 226.5
#554 Milwaukee/Cleveland under 239.5
#558 Philadelphia/Houston over 223.5
#566 Memphis/LA Clippers over 225.5
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
2X #556 Toronto/Boston over 224.5
These two teams have 7 relevant meetings over the last 2 seasons, those games are 5-1-1 for the under, with the lone over coming by a 1/2 point. Those 7 games have seen remarkably consistent posted totals of 225, 222.5, 223, 223.5, 225.5, 228, and 211.5, with the average being 222.5, but playing to an average score of just 212.6. So, with that in mind, and the ridiculous over nature of the NBA this season, this posted total comes out at 224.5 and sees little movement? The Celtics had to put a lot of effort into their OT win last night vs the lowly Pistons and as a result their entire starting lineup is either listed as GTD or OUT for this matchup. Surprisingly, one of the sets of numbers I run for these games made this total 229.5. So, one of my numbers likes over, I like the situational setup off the Celtics OT win, and this fits the contrarian parameters of our ridiculous OVER plays.
2X Totals = 3-4 42.9%. -2.8 units
Totals = 55-63-1 46.6%. -14.2 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
2X Ridiculous OVERS = 1-0 100% +2.0 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 14
Closing line value overs = +24 (5-6)
Closing line value under = +1 (2-1)
Man, I just can't seem to get a run. Easily could have been 5-0 yesterday but lose both close games to go 3-2. Had another over with 5.5 points of CLV, results......loser. Those bets seem to be mostly losing which is just plain odd.
Overnights for 12-30-23:
#568 Miami/Utah over 226.5
#568 Utah +1.5
Totals = 55-63-1 46.6%. -14.2 units
Sides = 9-9 50.0% -0.9 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
2X Ridiculous OVERS = 1-0 100% +2.0 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 14
Closing line value overs = +24 (5-6)
Closing line value under = +1 (2-1)
Man, I just can't seem to get a run. Easily could have been 5-0 yesterday but lose both close games to go 3-2. Had another over with 5.5 points of CLV, results......loser. Those bets seem to be mostly losing which is just plain odd.
Overnights for 12-30-23:
#568 Miami/Utah over 226.5
#568 Utah +1.5
2X Totals = 3-4 42.9%. -2.8 units
Totals = 55-65-1 45.8%. -16.4 units
Sides = 10-9 52.6% +0.1 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
2X Ridiculous OVERS = 1-0 100% +2.0 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 16
Closing line value overs = +31 (5-8)
Closing line value under = +1 (2-1)
Had another over move 4.5 points in our favor and then lose. This is 4th consecutive big moves towards the over that has lost vs the opener that I had and for the season this sort of bet is a big overall loser. That's not the way it's supposed to go. As you can see from my CLV tracking, I've gained 31 points on 13 over wagers or an average of about 2.4 points of value per wager (this is substantial in the NBA) and yet my win rate is 38%. I know this is small sample size but it's a carryover from the entire season with a much larger sample and similar results.
Overnight for 12-31-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#588 Orlando/Phoenix over 229.5
These two teams do not meet regularly so there isn't a lot of relevant history to note. Of note is that the last time these two teams met, the total was lined at 228.5 and landed 229. Here we get a nearly identical number. Orlando went through a phase where they were playing up-tempo but over their last 10 games, they've slowed that down a bit and now rank near the middle of the pack for NBA pace (103.4). Despite the perception of Phoenix as an up-tempo team, they have played at a much more moderate pace and actually rank as the 5th slowest pace home team. With that said, these type of figures are used to create pace numbers and thusly totals. This number is 229.5 for absolutely no reason. Both of my sets of numbers put out a more realistic number (225, 226.5) but this year's over bias has this loading at 229.5. Ridiculously, I think this line will get bet up, so we get in early.
Totals = 55-65-1 45.8%. -16.4 units
Sides = 10-9 52.6% +0.1 units
Ridiculous OVER = 7-1 87.5% +5.9 units
2X Ridiculous OVERS = 1-0 100% +2.0 units
CLV starting on 12-26-23
Games = 16
Closing line value overs = +31 (5-8)
Closing line value under = +1 (2-1)
Had another over move 4.5 points in our favor and then lose. This is 4th consecutive big moves towards the over that has lost vs the opener that I had and for the season this sort of bet is a big overall loser. That's not the way it's supposed to go. As you can see from my CLV tracking, I've gained 31 points on 13 over wagers or an average of about 2.4 points of value per wager (this is substantial in the NBA) and yet my win rate is 38%. I know this is small sample size but it's a carryover from the entire season with a much larger sample and similar results.
Overnight for 12-31-23:
Ridiculous OVER of the day:
#588 Orlando/Phoenix over 229.5
These two teams do not meet regularly so there isn't a lot of relevant history to note. Of note is that the last time these two teams met, the total was lined at 228.5 and landed 229. Here we get a nearly identical number. Orlando went through a phase where they were playing up-tempo but over their last 10 games, they've slowed that down a bit and now rank near the middle of the pack for NBA pace (103.4). Despite the perception of Phoenix as an up-tempo team, they have played at a much more moderate pace and actually rank as the 5th slowest pace home team. With that said, these type of figures are used to create pace numbers and thusly totals. This number is 229.5 for absolutely no reason. Both of my sets of numbers put out a more realistic number (225, 226.5) but this year's over bias has this loading at 229.5. Ridiculously, I think this line will get bet up, so we get in early.
