Author MLB 2024 (2nd Half)

[authorbytrade]

Just accidentally posted this in the NBA forum, it's time stamped there but figured I'd move it here.

Since, I've been at it preparing for the upcoming football seasons I thought maybe I'd post some baseball wagers as well. Haven't posted in some time so be leery of the return. Imagined today might be a fun day to start as I've got a pretty large card.

I flat bet baseball, with small variations, and rarely do totals or list pitchers. I wager a slight amount more on favorites than I bet than the dogs, but I will eliminate that concern here for ease of tracking.

I bet the Rangers and Phillies on overnight lines and list the lines I got there, they have both moved slightly my way but I would still wager on both at the current numbers. In the future I will list the overnight wagers as I make them for continuity and to avoid any confusion.

#954 Pittsburgh Pirates +115
#956 Washington Nationals +100
#958 Cincinnati Reds +121
#966 New York Yankees -170
#967 Baltimore Orioles -105
#970 Texas Rangers +110
#979 Philadelphia Phillies +103

 

[authorbytrade]

Absolutely brutal. Days like that are going to happen, unfortunate it happens on the first day. Posting here has been a death knoll for my wagers. I have stop limits per sport, potential to reach this one quickly now.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-0 - 0.00% = 0.0 units
Underdogs (-105 or +140) = 0-6 - 0.00% = -6.05 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 0-0 = 0.00% = 0.0 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.7 units

Total = 0-7 - 0.00% = -7.75 units

Overnight line moves: 2-0 + .30 CLV CLV continues to mean zero for my wagers, regardless of sport.

Variance:
1 run wins = 0
1 run losses = 1
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 0-1

8-3-24 overnights:

#908 Cincinnati Reds -127

 

[authorbytrade]

Decided I was a day early on the plays and decided to play the same card today, minus the Yankees who got overpriced. Missed posting the early start Nationals but should get the rest of them in here.

#906 Pittsburgh Pirates -114
#918 Texas Rangers -110
#921 Baltimore Orioles -110
#929 Philadelphia Phillies +107

 

[authorbytrade]

#912 San Diego Padres -192 Found a good line at Circa.

 

[authorbytrade]

Playing the same card as yesterday turns from 0-7 to 6-1 with only a total Phillies collapse to prevent the sweep. I forgot to post the Nationals game before it went, so 5-1 on here.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-0 - 0.00% = 0.0 units
Underdogs (-105 to +140) = 0-7 - 0.00% = -7.05 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 4-0 = 100.00% = +4.0 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 1-1 = 50.00% = -0.7 units

Total = 5-8 - 38.5% = -3.75 units

Overnight line moves: 3-0 + .38 CLV CLV continues to mean zero for my wagers, regardless of sport.

Variance:
1 run wins = 1
1 run losses = 2
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 0-2

For 8-4-24:

#952 Cincinnati Reds -110
#966 Detroit Tigers +116

 

[authorbytrade]

#959 St. Louis Cardinals +130

 

[authorbytrade]

Royals with 9th inning, 2 out, 3-run pinch-hit HR to win a game in which they never advanced a runner past 2nd base prior. What can you do? 0-9 betting dogs over the weekend.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-0 - 0.00% = 0.0 units
Underdogs (-105 to +140) = 0-9 - 0.00% = -9.05 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 4-1 = 80.00% = +2.9 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 1-1 = 50.00% = -0.7 units

Total = 5-11 - 31.3% = -6.85 units

Overnight line moves: 3-0 + .38 CLV CLV continues to mean zero for my wagers, regardless of sport.

Variance:
1 run wins = 1
1 run losses = 3
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 0-3

 

[authorbytrade]

8-5-24 overnights:

These numbers should all move my way:

#902 St. Louis Cardinals +101
#910 Texas Rangers +105
#916 Cleveland Guardians +110

 

[authorbytrade]

Dogs just not getting it done the last week or so.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-0 - 0.00% = 0.0 units
Underdogs (-105 to +140) = 1-11 - 8.33% = -9.95 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 4-1 = 80.00% = +2.9 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 1-1 = 50.00% = -0.7 units

Total = 6-13 - 31.6% = -7.75 units

Overnight line moves: 6-0 + .74 CLV CLV continues to mean zero for my wagers, regardless of sport.

Variance:
1 run wins = 2
1 run losses = 4
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 1-3

#952 Pittsburgh Pirates +141

 

[authorbytrade]

#958 Atlanta Braves -130

 

[authorbytrade]

#967 Houston Astros -120
#976 Cleveland Guardians -112
#978 St. Louis Cardinals -149
#980 Chicago Cubs -105

 

[authorbytrade]

Back off a bit and dogs have a great day. Baseball is a grind.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-1 - 0.00% = -1.0 units
Underdogs (-105 to +140) = 2-11 - 15.4% = -8.95 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 6-2 = 75.00% = +3.6 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 1-1 = 50.00% = -0.7 units

Total = 9-15 - 37.5% = -7.05 units

Overnight line moves: 6-0 + .74 CLV CLV continues to mean zero for my wagers, regardless of sport.

Variance:
1 run wins = 3
1 run losses = 4
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 2-3

8-7-24 overnights:

#908 Atlanta Braves -155
#914 Texas Rangers +105
#926 Cleveland Guardians +100

 

[authorbytrade]

At least it's easy to keep track of the record accurately, not much of a worry about plusses and minuses.

Large dogs (+140 and up) 0-1 - 0.00% = -1.0 units
Underdogs (-105 to +140) = 2-13 - 13.3% = -10.95 units
Favorites (-106 to -149) = 6-2 = 75.00% = +3.6 units
Large Faves (-150 and up) = 1-2 = 33.3% = -2.25 units

Total = 9-18 - 33.3% = -9.60 units

Overnight line moves: 8-1 + .91 CLV

The market didn't really like my plays from yesterday but does not matter right now, losing no matter what the market thinks.

Variance:
1 run wins = 3
1 run losses = 4
Oddities (no hitters, 1 hitters, walk offs of more than 1 run, overcome 5 or > run diff, etc) = 2-3

8-8-24 overnights:

#952 Atlanta Braves -138
#958 Washington Nationals RL +1.5 -155