Australian Open

[kouga]

Fernando Verdasco

Stepanek leads the h2h 3-0 and here we have a re-match of the Brisbane final where the Czech pest got under the skin of Verdasco. The Spaniard is in career-best form right now, and the ease with which he blew away former finallist Arnaud Clement yesterday was scary. In two matches to date, the ultra-talented lefty has won 6-0 sets, 36-8 in games, has won 82% of first serve points, 61% of second serves, and produced a startling 52 winners compared to only 30 unforced errors. His serving is on fire, his precision and power from the back of the court is admirable, and he is showing some on-court confidence that we've never seen from a guy who for so long was tainted as a nervous wreck who did not believe in his own ability. Stepanek had troubles after the first two sets against Berrer, and was fortunate the German choked when servign out the fourth set which avoided a marathon taking place. Stepanek, for all his qualities, has never been able to perform to his best at GS level and boasts an incredibly poor 2-10 record in 3rd round matches. His stamina is also questionable over the long journey, winning just 8 of the 23 matches that have gone the full distance whereas Verdasco is a more impressive 7-5 including scalps of Djokovic, Mathieu and Andreev. Verdasco is a well-rounded player with fantastic groundstrokes and incredible court-speed, something he didn't do in Brisbane that he'll want to do tomorrow is to direct lots of traffic at the suspect forehand side of Stepanek and also not let his caniving tactics get the better of him mentally. If he plays to his current standard, he'll enjoy the target provided at net and this will be Radek's only way of winning because - to put it simply - his game from the back of the court compared to Fernando's is like comparing Jankovic and Bartoli for fitness

 

[kouga]

James Blake

James Blake does so well against Igor Andreev for a reason - the whipping style of the Russian whereby he produces a ton of topspin particuarly off the forehand wing falls right into the sweet-hitting zone of Blake. He can therefore unleash which is what he likes to do, and has done so on all five occasions they've met, winning all but one set, twice in Grand Slams and four times on this very hard court surface. Andreev was forced to stay up until almost 11pm local time yesterday to see off Gulbis in a gruelling error-fuelled match, the Russian committed 70 (to the Latvian's 80) mistakes, and neither player was as convincing on serve as the reputations suggest they should have been. Including his doubles loss, Andreev has spent a whopping 486 minutes on court, compared to a mere 245 for the American showman. Tomorrow's forecast is not overly hot, but it will still be humid and one wonders how Andreev will pull up from the two 5-set marathons especially given that was his first 5-set win since the start of 2006. Blake has produced 72 winners to just 47 unforced errors, which is a good sign that he is in the zone mentally as well as physically, and the h2h advantage is going to play well against Andreev. His backhand is too suspect, and he simply lacks the variety required to take Blakey out of his comfort zone, like his recent conquerors Schuettler, Fish, Federer, Tsonga, Simon, Lopez, Djokovic, Kiefer and Wawrinka are more than capable of doing. He has points to defend, is looking fit and healthy, and should have too much left in the tank for what is sure to be a fatigued Igor Andreev

 

[kouga]

Victoria Azarenka

The meeting between this pair in Zurich late last year summed up the direction in their tennis careers. Azarenka whalloped the former world number one and Grand Slam champ, breaking on five occasions and making Mauresmo look sub-standard. Nothing much has changed in the short time since - Azarenka pounded quality teen Kvitova in R1 breaking on six occasions, then was spared court time in the heat when Garbin retired after a mere 25 minutes. Mauresmo, after knocking out the average Govortsova, came back from a set down and an early break deficit in the decider to eclipse Briton Elena Baltacha. She admitted after the match that there is "a lot of room (for improvement)", and if I've not heard an understatement before I have now. Her game is, to put it bluntly, not good enough - the serve is wobbly at best, the forehand is either a winner or a complete and utter shank, the backhand slice is predictable, the topspin backhand is only good, and the volleys aren't good enough to come in on a too regular basis. She's getting sluggish, her confidence is shattered and she'll never get back to the level that she once was - although I do think she was always overrated and was lucky that the "new generation" type of player didn't come through at the time she was at her peak. Azarenka's big serve, brutal groundstrokes and overall superior athleticism is again going to run the Frenchlady ragged - she'll pepper that forehand and don't expect her to be the one making the error first on too many occasions. Amelie may try the net tactic, but the Belarussian will relish that target and the pure weight of shot will force her back to the baseline quicker than she came in. Vic will be hungry for a shot at the vulnerable Serena, and you can forget about her much talked about "Grand Slam nerves", because this won't be a showcase game and she only seems to get those jitters much deeper into the tournaments

 

[kouga]

Cibulkova 2-0

Cibulkova has been in faultless form to date, losing just 2 games in total and just 22 points off all serves. She seems to be brimming confidence since her Hopman Cup heroics, and after beating Safina she knows she can match it with the world's best. She has very few weaknesses - a tremendous backhand, a decent forehand, incredible court movement, can play the drop shot and produces some good serving percentages. Admittedly, that serve doesn't have much sting on it and players like Safina (as she proved at times during that match) can brutalise it on the return, however a player such as Razzano is not the type to cash in. She adopts a fairly passive style from the back of the court, and has been quite fortunate so far because Gadjosova's nerves and the wind got the better of her in R1 (led 4-3 with a break in the decider) and then she accounted for disinterested Swiss Patty Schnyder who's "effort" suggested she's thinking more of retirement than winning Grand Slam matches. Razzano, interestnigly enough, is Cibulkova's doubles partner so they will know each other games, but the pair bowed out yesterday to the big guns Medina Garrigues and Ruano Pascual. Her serve offers very little variety or power, and as Gadjosova showed in R1 (5 of 19 break points taken) it is definitely an area that you can get Virgine on the back foot. The Slovak young gun's last nine losses on tour, dating back July last year, have been all to players in the top 20 and all of whom are a few classes above Razzano. Cibulkova is all class and she should repeat the drubbing she gave the veteran back on the Gold Coast in 2007, when she was nothing but a rising teenager. 2-0

 

[kouga]

Monfils 3-0

I concur that "between the ears" Monfils has a little bit to learn, and for all his talent and ability he needs to toughen up in a lot of the more dynamic areas of the game. But Almagro is just too frustratign - he's not been in top physical condition in some time and his inconsistency belies his ranking. His two "non-matches" almost resulted in a 5-set win over Massu who can barely buy a win on tour these days, as well as a straight sets dubbing over dirtballing youngster Fognini who can count Grand Slam wins on one hand. Monfils took care of experienced albeit claycourter Vassallo Arguello, then knocked out the cagey campaigner Koubek who smashed Mikhail Youzhny the previous round and did very well here back in 2002. Both men have a big first serve and huge forehands, but Monfils plays with more consistency and his superior backhand could come into play. He is also one of the better athletes on tour, and his variety is sure to pose some problems for the Spaniard just as it did in Beijing last year when he went down in 3. Monfils has grown in confidence since that time with victories over Nadal, Nalbandian (2), Roddick and Gonzalez, and looms as a real threat to the heavyweights on the top half of the draw. Flambuoyance, flair, natural skill, swift movement, magical tricks - the man has it all, he only needs to turn up on to the court mentally to absolutely hammer the living daylights over one of the most over-rated players in ATP Top 20 history

 

[kouga]

Mario Ancic

Gilles Simon was at his best after the first set against Guccione, a set even though he lost in which he made just one unforced error. He put the big ranga's serve under immense pressure, and as rafanadal pointed out he produced more aces and was more effective in terms of success rate behind the first and second deliveries. The Frenchman was defeated by Ancic on this surface about this time last year, and faces a big danger game given the Croat's return to form. He looked solid against the consistent Odesnik, then outlasted compatriot and big-serving giant Ivo Karlovic with an impressive baseline display to accompany the serve. SuperMario has produced, so far, 20 aces, won 78% and 63% behind the first and second serves respectively, and has almost doubled his ufnorced error count with winners. That is a brilliant trait of his when he's in form and not injured - not only does he have the booming serve and an incredible net game, but he's so consistent and agile off the ground that his opponents are forced to come up with ways to beat him - he doesn't beat himself very often. Having said that, Simon is an even better defender with an awesome down-the-line backhand, but his serving although great against Guccione is known to go off-tap. His percentage can often linger in the high 40s or low 50s, and if Ancic is able to get that many looks at a second serves that will be worrying for the sixth seed. Ancic plays very well here and has won 5 of his last 7 3rd round matches at major level, an area Simon is yet to prove himself at having lost ALL (4) third round attempts. This is a venture into the unknown for an albeit firing Simon, and if you notice some of his losses in 2008 you'll see that a majority of them possess great consistency from the baseline including Roddick, Djokovic, Bolelli, Murray, Schwank, Kiefer, Rochus, Stepanek, Ramirez Hidalgo and Nadal. On a day which should see a lot of the favourites through, this match looks like a very probable upset. Ancic in 5

 

[kouga]

Kateryna Bondarenko

Whilst the Bondarenko sister affair probably won't eventuate, I'll bank on Kateryna flying the flag for the family after the duo's surprise exit from the women's doubles. Kata has served brilliantly in her opening two matches, winning 72% of first serves and holding her nerve at the latter end of tight sets against Dominguez Lino and in particular last year's QFist Radwanksa in R1. She is a shotmaker who can be inconsistent, but on her day can produce some very good results as 2008 wins over Pennetta, Stosur, Paszek, Petrova and Ivanovic would underline. Jie Zheng struggles on this quicker surface, and has looked well below par in wins over Pin and Czink, committing an uncharacteristic 69 unforced errors and being broken on a massive 10 occasions. Her serve is a major downfall, and although she's landed the first ball in on 68% of the time, its yielded just a 59% success rate and the very weak second serve is sitting at just 48%. The Ukranian leads the h2h 2-1, and should enjoy the passiveness provided by the Chinese player as she attempts to dictate the baseline rallies. If she's off, she could very well hand the match to the more consistent Zheng with a host of unforced errors, but based on their last matches it's going to be tough for the pint-sized Jie to cope with serve and penetration of Bondarenko. Surface pedigree may well be the difference in the end

 

[crazyivan]

Kouga, do u bet all these? and at what odds?

I hate laying heavy juice. Whats ur opinion on 'em? U bet 'em too?
Thanks

Ivan

 

[kouga]

Kouga, do u bet all these? and at what odds?

I hate laying heavy juice. Whats ur opinion on 'em? U bet 'em too?
Thanks

Ivan

These are the thedestroyer9 plays:
Gael Monfils 3-0 +163
Mario Ancic 3-2 +800
Fernando Verdasco 3-1 +300
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3-0 -125
James Blake 3-1 +300
Kateryna Bondarenko +138
Victoria Azarenka 2-0 +125

 

[kouga]

Kouga, do u bet all these? and at what odds?

I hate laying heavy juice. Whats ur opinion on 'em? U bet 'em too?
Thanks

Ivan

My plays

Jelena Dokic -111 (top play)

Parlay -115
Fernando Verdasco
Elena Dementieva

Parlay +110
Victoria Azarenka
Gael Monfils
Jelena Jankovic

Parlay -125
Juan Martin Del Potro
Andy Murray
Dominika Cibulkova

 

[kouga]

Parlay -120
James Blake
Jelena Jankovic

Parlay -120
Dominika Cibulkova
Gilles Simon

 

[kouga]

Ivan,this is my full card and the only games I`m betting

Jelena Dokic -111 (top play)

Parlay -115
Fernando Verdasco
Elena Dementieva

Parlay +110
Victoria Azarenka
Gael Monfils
Jelena Jankovic

Parlay -125
Juan Martin Del Potro
Andy Murray
Dominika Cibulkova

Parlay -120
James Blake
Jelena Jankovic

Parlay -120
Dominika Cibulkova
Gilles Simon

 

[Brotherwo]

good reads thanks for posting

 

[kouga]

good reads thanks for posting

:toast:

 

[kouga]

<table class="betinfo"><tbody><tr><td>Monfils v Almagro-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Monfils, Gael</td> <td>1.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stepanek v Verdasco-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Verdasco, Fernando</td> <td>1.62</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Blake v Andreev-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Blake, James</td> <td>1.44</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ancic v Simon-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Simon, Giles</td> <td>1.53</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Del Potro v Cilic-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Del Potro, Juan Martin</td> <td>1.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Berdych v Federer-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Federer, Roger</td> <td>1.13</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Azarenka v Mauresmo-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Azarenka, Victoria</td> <td>1.33</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Razzano v Cibulkova-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Cibulkova, Dominika</td> <td>1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stosur v Dementieva-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Dementieva, Elena</td> <td>1.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Jankovic v Bartoli-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Jankovic, Jelena</td> <td>1.22</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dokic v Kleybanova-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Dokic, Jelena</td> <td>1.73</td></tr></tbody></table>
Total stake:$110 Estimated return: $2990.9

 

[GoBlue34]

Not to repeat but thanks for the write-ups! I will tail you on some of these, slow night in sports.

Here's to my first EVER tennis bets!

 

[kouga]

Not to repeat but thanks for the write-ups! I will tail you on some of these, slow night in sports.

Here's to my first EVER tennis bets!

I hope you won't be disappointed....:toast:

 

[GoBlue34]

Took James Blake and whoever Fernando Verdasco is based on your advice. Both straight set victories!

Look forward to your future write-ups!

 

[kouga]

took james blake and whoever fernando verdasco is based on your advice. Both straight set victories!

Look forward to your future write-ups!

 

[kouga]

<table class="betinfo"><tbody><tr><td>Monfils v Almagro-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Monfils, Gael</td> <td>1.25Winner</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stepanek v Verdasco-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Verdasco, Fernando</td> <td>1.62Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Blake v Andreev-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Blake, James</td> <td>1.44 Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ancic v Simon-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Simon, Giles</td> <td>1.53 Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Del Potro v Cilic-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Del Potro, Juan Martin</td> <td>1.40Winner</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Berdych v Federer-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Federer, Roger</td> <td>1.13 Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Azarenka v Mauresmo-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Azarenka, Victoria</td> <td>1.33 Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Razzano v Cibulkova-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Cibulkova, Dominika</td> <td>1.20 Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stosur v Dementieva-Australian Open 3rd Rnd
Match Prices</td> <td>Dementieva, Elena</td> <td>1.14Winner
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Jankovic v Bartoli-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Jankovic, Jelena</td> <td>1.22Loser</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dokic v Kleybanova-Australian Open 4th Round
Match Prices</td> <td>Dokic, Jelena</td> <td>1.73 Winner
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Total stake:$110 Estimated return: $2990.9