Auburn - Arkansas

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Now this is a really fascinating SEC matchup. You have the SEC's pre-season favorite, Auburn, continuing to fly under the radar (way outside the top 25) despite an impressive manhandling of Tennessee last Saturday night on the Plains.

Though losing early to USC and Georgia Tech, Auburn has been reborn on offense thanks to new OC Hugh Nall discovering something opponents already knew-that the AU formations were giving away their plays. That's fixed since three games ago.

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams reminded everyone of why he was a pre-season Heisman candidate by destroying the Vols for 185 yards. He's running behind the SEC's second -best offensive line too, though many don't seem to realize it. Blocking FB Brandon Johnson is one of the nation's best. QB Jason Campbell has recently found a grove as well, hitting an improving receiving corps for 2 TD's against UT and executing the game plan almost perfectly.

Defensively, the Tigers rank with the nation's very best, and they are almost dominating against the run, holding Tennessee, for example, to just 6 yards rushing.

Now for the Pigs. Matt Jones clearly ranks with Carnell Williams and Fred Gibson as one of the top playmakers in the SEC. As a QB it is not appropriate to compare him to David Greene at UGA and Casey Clausen(UT) or Eli Manning (Ole Miss). While Jones can throw well when he has to, his contribution is to lead Arkansas to victories, usually with his size, strength and speed on the option, but really, any way he can. He is a tremendous athlete 6-6, 4.45 40 yard dash) and the spiritual leader of the Hog football team. RB Cedric Cobbs has returned to greatness after a two-year hiatus, running through every opponent so far this season. This is a guy who was touted as a Bo Jackson clone as a frosh, with 4.35 speed at 225 pounds. Great player. FB Mark Pierce may be even better than Auburn's Brandon Johnson and that's saying something.

Arkansas very likely has the best OL in college football, led by a dominating right side of G Mark Bokermann, T Shawn Andrews and 320-pound TE Jason Peters. "Awesome" is not overstating this group. WR George Wilson is emerging into a star as well, as Texas found out in September (38-28 Razorback win in Austin).

Defensively, Arkansas can FLY. The secondary and LBs are as fast as any back 7 in the nation, including those of Southern Cal, Miami and Florida State. Batman Carroll and Lawrence Richardson are the best CB combo in the country.
The reason Arkansas gives up some passing yards is that they play a lot of man coverage, counting on their excellent athletes in the backfield to do a job on opposing receivers, which they usually do.

If Arkansas has a weakness, it's in the front four, and against the run where the Pigs are giving up 4.5 yards a rush. This plays into an Auburn strength, of course, and could be how Auburn wins this game if they do.

You can bet Auburn will be ready for Arkansas. As for Arkansas, they seldom lose at home (only abount 5 times in Nutt's 5-year career so far). But they also are seldom playing under the pressure of a big home game in which they are favored. Nutt is unbeatable as an underdog, but very weak historically as a favorite. This could be a neutralizing factor emotionally in this game, but the fact that the winner is the front runner-along with LSU- in the SEC West should assure complete attention from all concerned.

Is Auburn really the best team in the West as thought in the pre-season? Or is, undefeated and senior-dominated Arkansas as good as they appear to be? Tommy Tuberville has lost 5 of 6 in his coaching career to the Hogs, including three straight as a favorite, but he's never had this much talent to work with in any of those games. Nor has Arkansas been quite this talented.

In the three previous losses, Auburn turned the ball over insanely, and last year Tuberville designed his defense to stop Jones, which allowed RB Fred Tally to run wild against the Tigers in Auburn (420 yards rushing for the Hogs). Obviously he won't make that mistake again. But then that puts the game back in Jones' hands, doesn't it?

Underrated QB Jason Campbell will be a HUGE improvement over Daniel Cobb for Auburn, and his steady play should help the Tigers take the Fayetteville "heat."

So if Jones plays to his potential, the Pigs can crack the AU defense. And it's likely Cadillac, Ronnie Brown (hamstring?) and WMD Brandon Jacobs (265 RB with 4.45 speed) can have it their way some of the time against an average Pig DL. The bottom line is, can Houston Nutt handle the pressure of being a favorite in a big game while feeling the pressure of a top-10 ranking? We shall see.

Today, right now, an ever so slight lean to the points. But the farm stays in my pocket for now.
 

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Excellent write up. You're on top of this one.
The tickets everyone was clamoring for early on in Fayetteville was the Florida game, which is next weekend. Now it seems the Auburn game is the big home game to see.
I think Arkansas had their bad game against Alabama, and won't have that type game again this week. I'll be on Arkansas.
 

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Great write, cant disagree on any points.

I would love to see more of Brandon Jacobs run. When he comes in the game, they know he is going to run and still gets 9 yards. Only way to stop him is to catch him at the ankles on his first steps. He is also great on special teams.

I see this game as being a run fest. Arkansas will run on Auburn, but I think Auburn will get the most yards. If AU can keep the turnovers and avoid the big plays from Jones, I think they can win.

Tubs and company are great as underdogs, see Bama and Penn State from last year, but doesn't fair well against Arky. But in the previous losses he was coming of bye weeks and was a favorite, thus coming out flat and uninspired.

This will be different, as he knows this game is the ticket to the SECCG.

I'll probably just watch this one.
 

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Yep, this is the biggest game of the season for Arkansas. The question is, do they realize it? The LSU - Ark game could be irrelevant by season's end.
Mentally Auburn certainly has both hands on the steering wheel for this one. If they let the horses run, especially the WMD, Brandon Jacobs they can run over the Hawg D.
Arkansas is likely still caught up in the emotional wins over Texas and Alabama, yet it's this game that is the season-maker for the Hogs, should they win.
 

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...haven't decided on this one yet,,..
but in ly's matchup 5 of AU's def. front 7 were out or playing severely banged up & it really showed.
 

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All expectations point to an attendance record being broken in Fayetteville this weekend. The whole state is pumped about the Razorbacks being undefeated. Plus they're coming off a bye week, which has helped stir the frenzy and get a couple of players healed up.
 

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