the first part....
trying to break down where each horse will want to be to digest the first few furlongs....
Speed: 6 Fresian Fire and 9 Join in the Dance
Close up on the speed: 7 Papa Clem 8 Mine that Bird 10 Regal Ransom 13 I Want Revenge 14 Atomic Rain 16 Pioneer of the Nile
Just off the speed: 2 Musket Man 12 General Quarters 19 Desert Party 20 Flying Private
Comfortable: 1 West Side Bernie 3 Mr Hot Stuff 5 Hold Me Back 11 Chocolate Candy 15 Dunkirk
Well Off: 4 Advice 17 Summer Bird 18 Nowhere to Hide
trying to break down where each horse will want to be to digest the first few furlongs....
Speed: 6 Fresian Fire and 9 Join in the Dance
Close up on the speed: 7 Papa Clem 8 Mine that Bird 10 Regal Ransom 13 I Want Revenge 14 Atomic Rain 16 Pioneer of the Nile
Just off the speed: 2 Musket Man 12 General Quarters 19 Desert Party 20 Flying Private
Comfortable: 1 West Side Bernie 3 Mr Hot Stuff 5 Hold Me Back 11 Chocolate Candy 15 Dunkirk
Well Off: 4 Advice 17 Summer Bird 18 Nowhere to Hide
20th- #9 Join in the Dance 50-1.......Totally figure this guy to be a rabbit, try to setup some kind of suicidal pace early from the Pletcher barn to possibly benefit his other two entrants with a main thought process on it being Dunkirk, in the process he may take down a few others up front, perhaps Fresian Fire. Chris Decarlo has only rode this fella once and it was his career worst performance over a sloppy going. Tried to steal away with the bluegrass at a mile and an eigth and was collared late and collapsed to the likes of Musket Man and Hold Me Back. This guy has only won once in eight starts, a second place finish over this track but vs a lackluster field of 6 in his debut. This guy should be the one to set the pace and fold his tent like the rabbit Pletcher will want him to be, theres just no way he can make the distance.
19th- #18 Nowhere To Hide 50-1......Only thing to like here a little is the Nick Zito factor but lets be realistic, maybe he will pass a few that collapse but there is no scenario that I can see where he can do anything here. This will be his 9th different pilot over his last 9 races. It took him 5 attempts to break from the maiden ranks and would not be here without the defection of Win Willy. He has been handled easily by the likes of Musket Man and was beaten 3 lengths by Fresian Fire, has hit the super over last three races but really hasnt shown the ability to compete vs any elite competition. Notice once a few more lbs were packed on he lost by more lengths than ever before and now he extends an extra 1/8th of a mile and packs on 4 more lbs, just doesnt look like a good sign. If for some reason Shaun does decide to leave the gate with him, he will have nowhere to hide, A toss.
18th- #8 Mine That Bird 50-1......Ummmm good luck if you bet this one. Ran credible Id say up in canada under mandella last year but really never put up any good figures and was doing it vs very small fields. His one test was in the breeders cup juvenile and he ran dead last. Has since switched to Bennie Woolley who is winning at a 3% clip here. He hasnt faced anything remotely in the same stratosphere as the competition he will see on saturday and could quite possibly be an early pace casualty, but with them opting for calvin borel I really dont know, he may change tactics but it shouldnt matter, he has yet to crack beyond an 81 on the form an has not won off the synthetic strips, would be astonished to see this one even in the top 10.
17th- #14 Atomic Rain 50-1..... Ran 4th to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial beaten 4 lengths, the good things end there. Trainer Kelly Breen saddles two in this field and this will not be the one he has high hopes for. Hasnt even worked over the churchill downs surface from what I can see and is another that will want to be somewhere in the early mix. Has yet to win this year and would have been beaten soundly in the Wood had I Want Revenge not stumbled early, that 95 figure looks a tad scued to me off that, he had nothing in the tank vs one monster, how will he handle 5 or 6 of them. Was destroyed in the sam davis down at tampa beathen 16 lengths to general quarters and musket man. Just dont forsee him getting a call turning for home.
16th- #20 Flying Private 50-1.... There will be no repeat winner from the 20 hole this year. Love the addition of Robby Albarado whos hitting at a 21% clip at churchill and has a 2nd place finish under his belt here last year along with being the only bred horse from a winner of the derby in Fusaichi Pegasus. After that its really difficult from this spot. He will add 8 lbs off his last start and will be saddled on the far outside, now hes not a major speed horse but would generally like to be close to the pace and this post will hurt that abilty going into the first turn. He ran 5th to Pap Clem in the Arkansas Derby beaten 6 lengths but lets be honest was he a threat at any point. Im afraid his best effort came on the polytrack in the Lanes End. Have a hard time creating a case for D W Lukas in this spot who is 0-41 this year in graded stakes and has beaten nothing in this field.
15th- #4 Advice 30-1..... Another Pletcher horse that I just dont respect. He was a late derby addition thanks to some defections and has spent bulk of time on the poly. His lone dirt effort came at snland going his longest at 11/8 and he ran a very flat race producing a 77 which will not even put him on the screen in this race. Ill also point out that was the only race where he carried beyond 118lbs at 122, now 126. His last race in the coolmore lexington he did close willingly to win but it was against a weak field where he passed a lot of tired horses, still not convinced with the breeding that he can get this distance vs a quality field. The only time he met square competition was in the breeders futurity and he went off the pubic choice and could not be found beaten 12 lengths.
14th- #3 Mr Hot Stuff 30-1...... Colonel John turned out to be an alright horse at times but for the most part that route used by Eoin Harty worked strictly to the polytrack surfaces when he showed up on derby day it was not very pleasant. Looks like the same route here but with a far inferior horse. Every effort and work has been in california and he now picks up a new East coast jockey. Ill point out it took him 5 trys to break his maiden and he barely won that day. I clearly remember his last race in the Santa Anita Derby and Pioneer of the Nile ran erratic and though the official margin is 2 lengths he was never a remote threat at any point, passing others that were just finished, kind of expect the same thing here but most horses wont back up to him in this field. Ill let this horse try and beat me, im convinced he wont be around with his first start on the dirt track.
Personally, I am looking at FRIESAN FIRE.
Weather forecasters are calling for rain...lots of rain. Result in sloppy or muddy track.
Friday at Churchill, there were not to may horses coming from wayu of the pace to finish in the money. Track looked "dead".
Got to work with horses that are likely to race on the pace or just off, midpack... and don't mind dirt in their face.
FRIESAN FIRE is one of those horses.
You know it would not surprise me at all if Dunkirk is a scratch tomorrow if the track comes up too muddy. IMO the horse is too lightly raced to take on such a challange. Too expensive of an animal also. But that is IMO.
gl
gl
Weather forecasters are calling for rain...lots of rain. Result in sloppy or muddy track.
Friday at Churchill, there were not to may horses coming from wayu of the pace to finish in the money. Track looked "dead".
Got to work with horses that are likely to race on the pace or just off, midpack... and don't mind dirt in their face.
FRIESAN FIRE is one of those horses.
You know it would not surprise me at all if Dunkirk is a scratch tomorrow if the track comes up too muddy. IMO the horse is too lightly raced to take on such a challange. Too expensive of an animal also. But that is IMO.
gl
gl
the guy who cuts my hair used to own horses around here so i go into today and ask who he likes and he gives me the MBG (money back guarentee) and he also says Friesan Fire if its in the slop...of course after a few laughs etc etc...we both know its a 20 horse field and a ton of shit can happen but the facts are this horse loves the mud and that early sharp money that drove him down to 4-1 is indeed sharp....
im hoping for rain tomorrow FWIW...
im hoping for rain tomorrow FWIW...
13th- General Quarters 20-1...... Has a nice little story to him w/his old trainer and low buying price accompanied by his nice bluegrass and Sam B Davis scores, as well as a win over churchill. My primary fear here is that Coa opts off to Musket Man and his last effort was on the poly, sitting pretty much just off the pace, made a quick move and held on, dont forsee him getting that smooth trip today against much better and dont see him getting the distance today, just appears a cut below.
12th- #10 Regal Ransom 30-1....... If I thought he could steal away or set the pace or be right on it without any suicidal goings on I would like a lot but join in the dance and fresian fire wont allow that. Did some good things overseas, beating his 1-5 stablemate Desert Party and has banked over a million, his bullet work shows he his going to be gunning early, only bad race was on the poly, all things that worry me w leaving off the ticket, its just he wont get away here and hes already shown he can be collared going shorter, so the extra distance is liable to hurt him, might have been better suited to the preakness.
11th-#5 Hold Me Back 15-1...... Will offer fair value for players that look only at his last two efforts in the bluegrass and Lanes End coming from off the pace. Desormeaux/Mott always deserve respect. Its just Im convinced this horse will not appreciate dirt, look back at his one try at Aqueduct going a 1 1/8, it was absysmal, beaten 14 lengths. Jerry Baily a big friend to Bill Mott said that Mott was very concerned w/how his horse was handling things. Kent wants to save ground the calvin borel way today but I just picture a wall of front runners dropping right in his way, Ill let him prove he can beat me, he also hasnt beaten anything of quality.
10th- #2 Musket Man 20-1..... Coa sticks over General Quarters and is 5 of 6 after winning the Illinois Derby and Tampa Bay derby, never off the board......but he has never been farther than 6 lengths off the pace and hasnt faced anything but general quarters and join in the dance, two others ive already tossed. Given the inside post position, hes gonna get a rough trip unless he pushes out for early positioning and if Coa does push hes not faster than the speed and not a faster closer than the closers, so im struggling seeing him with any advantage in this spot, hasnt been bad at all just doesnt dazzle me.
