Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions 12/22/2012

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Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 59% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 41% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 58% of simulations and they go on to win 77% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 325 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. Matthew Stafford is averaging 308 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (29% chance) then he helps his team win 51%.
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