ATL, SF and Other Sunday Plays

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Not a good week last week. My record (which I will update soon) is now down to just a hair above .500. Still profitable for the season, but barely. Wining starts today, I hope.


SF + 2 - 2 units
ATL+9 - 2 units
PHI TT UNDER 24 - 2 units (-115)

Oak + 7 - 1 unit

NYG -2 1 unit
 

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PHI TT is up to 24.5 -- I am going to pound it and add 2 more units on UNDER at 24.5 (-115).
 

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Buck it, I'll chime in I'm so damn hung over from a X-Mas party last night. I'm seeing Atl -9 at -130 at FiveHo's. You can get Carolina at -7 for -125, -6+ for -145. What are you thinking betting against the third best D in the NFL, the third best team ATS in the NFL? Atlanta is in a tailspin right now, great luck with that play. Not to mention the game is at BoA and the weather is perfect.

~T~
 

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If betting was as easy as always taking good teams vs bad teams everyone would win. I like Carolina -- bet them hard on Thanksgiving when all the sharps were all over Dallas. It wasn't hard to find a 9 point line (or 8.5 etc)quite recently
-- in fact the late reverse line movement makes me feel better about the play. http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=47134&sport=NFL

There is value in betting on teams when their value is at their lowest vs teams when their value is at their highest. This is the NFL. I wouldn't be stunned if this was a close game (hell, Carolina almost lost last week, allbeit on the road, but to a shittier team than ATL). Lot of pressure on the Panthers to go undefeated now. They are due for a clunker. This is the NFL. No game is easy. Laying more than a TD vs a division opponent makes it especially so.

EDIT: Sorry for odd formatting. I have cursor problems on therx for some reason.
 

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I call it the "No Fun League" for a damn good reason Chonce, but I live in Charlotte now and this isn't the game to pick for a letdown. Christ, the Panthers beat them like a stepchild last time and the Falcons just lost at Tampa Bay. And yes, I read everything on Covers every night. I have no clue where you're getting RLM here, line moved from 7+ to 9 and more folks on Carolina.

~T~
 

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Tmader, the line has since moved back to 7.5 -- that is RLM, is it not? Public bets big on CaR and yet the books lowering the line? The reverse line movement is late, but it is still RLM. In any event I take it you don't like the ATL play. Fair enough ...
 

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EDIT: Sorry for odd formatting. I have cursor problems on therx for some reason.

Click on the aA above the box, far left, before typing; fixes it for some reason.
 

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Tmader, the line has since moved back to 7.5 -- that is RLM, is it not? Public bets big on CaR and yet the books lowering the line? The reverse line movement is late, but it is still RLM. In any event I take it you don't like the ATL play. Fair enough ...

It's still 9 at FiveHo's, not sure where you're getting 7+. I'll check my BOL account and see where they're at. I read the Charlotte Observer every day and obviously the Panthers are on the cover each of those. They're well aware that every team they play from here on out wants to be the one to knock them off. But Atlanta here in Charlotte ain't gonna be the one. GL my friend. I'll be back with that BOL line.

~T~
 

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I live in NC as well and I've been a Panthers fan since 95. This is a rivalry game. Sure Atlanta has dropped several games in a row now; however the games have been against decent teams and they've been close. Tampa Bay has made massive improvements in the last 6 weeks and it took a ridiculous 3rd and 19 scramble by Winston to pull it off. If Ryan protected the ball better they would have won a majority of the games they lost. Turnovers have killed them. I got the line at 8 and jumped on the Falcons. Never saw it on my book higher and has since fluctuated between 7.5 and 8. The Falcons are still theoretically in the playoff hunt and the Panthers have clinched. I think the Panthers win outright, but the Falcons are going to keep it closer than 8. Anyone who says the Panthers have an easy road the rest of the way, obviously doesn't follow the NFC South. Atlanta twice and the Bucs. Those aren't cakewalks and I expect the Panthers to drop one of those games. Just my two cents.
 

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^^^^^^^^^

Line closed at 8 at BOL. I'd expect Atlanta to give them fits at Atlanta, but not here in Charlotte. Bucs are dangerous, no argument here.

~T~
 

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28-Zipper at the half. Get some more Panthers 2nd half, this is gonna get real ugly.

~T~
 

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Panthers D is good but Falcons O Line is horrible, Jesus. Oh well, I guess that's why they call it gambling and not winning.
 

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Yeah, this Carolina team looks like the 85 Bears/07 Pats.. Fucking stupid to bet the Falcons in retrospect. still, thanks to a miraculous PHI TT UNDER 24 (4 units) hitting -- they had 20 points just minutes into the third QTR and only scored 6 2nd half point) and I end up 2-2 and with a profit of two units minus juice. Now, I have Oak pending.

No bets on NE/Texans or Dallas/ GB. Maybe I will make a 2nd half play with GB, I don't know.
 

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I went 3-2 today for 2.6 units. I suspect the Pats will come out strong.

PATS FH -2.5 (-120) 2 uniits
 

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Nice -- 4-2 +4.6 units today. I would lean on UNDER 23.5 if I had to bet, but I am just going to keep my 4.6 units until the NYG game.
 

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