Asking for some strategy analysis

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Hello all, going to ask for a bit of advice here
So let's say hypothetically, you could be getting better than "true odds" on your NHL dog action
Scoresandodds.com doesn't list the dog line on their front home page. So say for instance on tonight's Jets/Stars game, the line shown is Stars-130. Let's say you could take the Jets at +130, even though this isn't the true line. That line is a click away.
Let's say whenever you want, you can take every dog as an inverse of the fave, instead of taking the juice into account. Because the booker of your action hasn't figured out that the juice is hidden on this website
Let's also say that you can take any total at -110. Yes, any.
If this was available to you, would you stay with dogs, or totals?
What I've been doing lately is looking at Dunkel, and taking the dogs that pass the eye test. Also been playing totals with afternoon line movement, with a Dunkel projection of at least a 1 goal winner.
So let's see an imaginary game opens with a 5.5u20 line. Line hits 5.5u40, and Dunkel shows a 4.5 projected contest. That's what I pop. I get this under at -110
Hypothetically, I can also parlay totals for a 2.5-1 payout on a two teamer, with ties being a loss. Obviously for this reason, I would stick to 5.5 games. I haven't tried this yet


Curious as to what any other out there would focus on, if this was available to them. I've been doing well with dogs lately, but any other thoughts are appreciated
 

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So let's see an imaginary game opens with a 5.5u20 line. Line hits 5.5u40, and Dunkel shows a 4.5 projected contest. That's what I pop. I get this under at -110

It’s always worth playing a overlay like this. No brainer over the long run.
 

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Vic is right Hurt. Any edge you can get is sure to pay off over the long haul. Just stick with it for as long as it lasts even if you have a bad run. It's gold.
 

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So say for instance on tonight's Jets/Stars game, the line shown is Stars-130. Let's say you could take the Jets at +130, even though this isn't the true line. That line is a click away.
Let's say whenever you want, you can take every dog as an inverse of the fave, instead of taking the juice into account.

you basically can't lose.. If you play both sides, you'll break even when the favs win and pick up the scraps when the dogs win
 

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Oh I forgot to clarify, I can't play both sides. And I have no desire to open an online acct to do so
Would you guys focus on dogs or totals?
 

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With the dogs, you're getting back about 10% right off the bat, if you're getting them at the inverse of the Fav line.

Your break even #'s will improve with the dogs..
+110 (47.6%) now becomes +120 (45.45%)
+157 (38.9%) now becomes +175 (36.36%)

It's not a big edge as far as BE% goes..
If you can get a Total at -110 (52.38%) that really costs -140 (58.33%), then you're saving more here.. But it depends on the line

You'd probably find it easier with totals since, as you say, you can follow the juice and probably end up hitting much better than 52.38% (for -110)... On top of that.. totals, I think, are more predictable than sides, though for me personally, sides are much more satisfying!

And if you have time, why not do a trial run? Follow the plays on paper for a bit and see which plant bears the best fruit..
 

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As for the parlays, you'd get 2.64:1 on two (-110) plays.. of course if you're parlaying two games at, what should be -140, and getting them for -110
then you're in the drivers seat (1.94:1)
 

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Thanks for the numbers breakdown glob, that's exactly what I wanted. You are right, sides are much more satisfying. For the totals, I have usually done o5's rather than u5.5's, since it's a bit boring to watch a game and root against scoring....

I'm really only a small time bettor($30-$40 units), and do this for some pocket money basically, so I'm not really taking it that serious. But obviously I know that I have a big advantage. That's why I posted here, and I want to thank everyone again for the replies

Curious as to why the site lists the odds like this. They do it that way for baseball as well. With football and basketball, both lines are shown simultaneously
 

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Agree with everything said. A huge overlay like that is really sweet and too good to pass up. The next question is:... who's the bookie? haha I'd like to give him some action!
 

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Not to hijack the thread.....I just won a $215 fp in a contest and pretty much just play hockey. Any thoughts in how to turn that into cash?
 

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Not to hijack the thread.....I just won a $215 fp in a contest and pretty much just play hockey. Any thoughts in how to turn that into cash?

Bet both sides of same game, approximately $100 on each side, just lose the juice.
 

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