Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds & Field

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Field​

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After an exciting Honda Classic, the PGA Tour will move up the state of Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, March 2-5, at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge just outside of Orlando.

Following many taking the week off last week, the top players on the PGA Tour will be playing as it is another designated event.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Field​

The 120-player field is loaded like the first three designated events this year.

Forty-four of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up – the most in any event since last year’s Open Championship.

This includes world No. 1 Jon Rahm, who has won three times already this season, including two designated events (Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational).

Below are the odds for every player in the field as of Feb. 27.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds​

PlayerOdds to Win
Jon Rahm650
Rory McIlroy1000
Scottie Scheffler1000
Max Homa1600
Collin Morikawa1800
Patrick Cantlay2000
Tony Finau2000
Xander Schauffele2000
Justin Thomas2200
Will Zalatoris2200
Viktor Hovland3000
Sungjae Im3300
Tyrrell Hatton3300
Cameron Young3500
Jason Day4000
Jordan Spieth4000
Matt Fitzpatrick4000
Sam Burns4000
Tom Kim4500
Sahith Theegala5000
Chris Kirk5500
Hideki Matsuyama5500
Shane Lowry5500
Keegan Bradley6000
Rickie Fowler6000
Tommy Fleetwood6000
Keith Mitchell6600
Corey Conners8000
Gary Woodland8000
Seamus Power8000
Justin Rose9000
Si Woo Kim9000
Aaron Wise10000
Adam Scott10000
Billy Horschel10000
Russell Henley10000
Taylor Montgomery10000
Tom Hoge10000
Wyndham Clark10000
Adam Hadwin12500
Alex Noren12500
Brian Harman12500
Lucas Herbert12500
Luke List12500
Min Woo Lee12500
Nick Taylor12500
Sepp Straka12500
Taylor Moore12500
Adrian Meronk15000
Beau Hossler15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout15000
Eric Cole15000
J.J. Spaun15000
K.H. Lee15000
Ryan Fox15000
Sam Ryder15000
Taylor Pendrith15000
Thomas Detry17500
Adam Svensson20000
Ben Griffin20000
Byeong Hun An20000
Danny Willett20000
Francesco Molinari20000
Harris English20000
Joel Dahmen20000
Joseph Bramlett20000
Justin Suh20000
Kurt Kitayama20000
Lee Hodges20000
Patrick Rodgers20000
Scott Stallings20000
Andrew Putnam22500
Davis Riley22500
Emiliano Grillo22500
Zach Johnson22500
Aaron Rai25000
Alex Smalley25000
Ben Taylor25000
Brendon Todd25000
Cam Davis25000
Garrick Higgo25000
Hayden Buckley25000
Nick Hardy25000
Robby Shelton25000
S.H. Kim25000
Will Gordon25000
David Lipsky30000
Mackenzie Hughes30000
Ryan Palmer30000
Adam Schenk35000
Charley Hoffman35000
David Lingmerth35000
Davis Thompson35000
Kevin Kisner35000
Ludvig Aberg35000
Matthew NeSmith35000
Padraig Harrington35000
Patton Kizzire35000
Trey Mullinax35000
Webb Simpson35000
Aaron Baddeley40000
Greyson Sigg40000
Lucas Glover40000
Martin Laird40000
Peter Malnati40000
Pierceson Coody40000
Stewart Cink40000
Callum Tarren50000
Chez Reavie50000
Justin Lower50000
Kevin Streelman50000
Luke Donald50000
Ryan Brehm50000
Thriston Lawrence50000
Troy Merritt50000
Cole Hammer60000
Tyson Alexander60000
Kyle Westmoreland100000
Greg Koch200000
Kamaiu Johnson250000
 

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Jordan Speith at around 40 to 1 is worth a little bet.
 

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Here is some background info on the Tournament and Course

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Field​


Field: 120 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, March 2
Defending Champ: Scottie Scheffler



The Arnold Palmer Invitational is now offering up $20M in the kitty, which means all the top PGA TOUR players will be in attendance at Bay Hill. Most of the elite have made consistent to sporadic cameos in this event over the years, with some notable expectations.


Patrick Cantlay and Tom Kim are getting their first crack at the course. Jon Rahm (T17), Xander Schauffele (T24), Justin Thomas (T49), Jordan Spieth (T4), and Cameron Young (T13) have only seen this course once apiece over the the past eight seasons. Collin Morikawa (T9), Tony Finau (MC) and Brian Harman (MC) each made their last Bay Hill start a week before the pandemic commenced in 2020.


Representing international tours, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk, Min Woo Lee and for the first time on US soil, World No. 83 Thriston Lawrence will all be at Bay Hill. Plus, we’ll get a look at top ranked amateur, the Swede, Ludvig Aberg.


2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Key Stats​


  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Proximity 200+ Yards
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Par 3s Gained 200-225 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com


2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Course​


  • Course: Bay Hill
  • Yardage: 7,466
  • Par: 72
  • Greens: Bermuda

Par 3s


  • Average length (216.5 yards), the shortest is 199 with the other three all checking in at 215 yards or longer
  • These were four of the six toughest holes last season in terms of birdie rate (all under 11%), with Hole 2 being the toughest in that category (7.8%)

Par 4s


  • Average length (421.8 yards), while the average length is what you’d expect, there are three holes measuring 400 or fewer yards and three that top 460.
  • Par 4s at the end of each nine take back strokes (Hole 18 was the toughest a season ago and Hole 8 was second — both notching a bogey-or-worse rate north of 25%).

Par 5s


  • Average length (557.5 yards), the shortest is 511 with the other three all checking in at 555 yards or longer
  • The four easiest holes on the course, all carrying a birdie rate over 30% a season ago (Hole 16 had a crazy 5% eagle rate, nearly matching the 6.4% bogey rate).

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Past Winners​


  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler -5
  • 2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11
  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4
  • 2019: Francesco Molinari -12
  • 2018: Rory McIlroy -18
  • 2017: Marc Leishman -11
  • 2016: Jason Day -17
  • 2015: Matt Every -19
  • 2014: Matt Every -13
  • 2013: Tiger Woods -13

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5, one stroke clear of Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel and Viktor Hovland)


  • Highlight: He was just a stroke under par through two days, but a 68 on moving day proved to be plenty (a combined 20 strokes better than the three that tied for second on the final leaderboard in that round).
  • Note: The top-10 finishers all gained with the putter, with four of them picking up at least six strokes on the field.

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11, one stroke clear of Lee Westwood)


  • Highlight: He was the only player to go under par in all four days, his best round coming on Thursday with a 67 that put him one off the pace).
  • Note: DeChambeau may have won, but he was one of just three golfers that finished top-9 on the final leaderboard that gained distance off the tee on the field.

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4, one stroke clear of Marc Leishman)


  • Highlight: A pair of rounds in the 60s to start the event allowed Hatton to cruise to the finish line (over par in both weekend rounds).
  • Note: Matt Every went full Keegan (65 in Round 1 with an 83 in Round 2). Of note, 11 of the top-12 finishers gained on proximity in that 100-125 yard bucket (nine of them lost in either the 175-200 or 200+ range)

2019: Francesco Molinari (-12, two strokes clear of Matt Fitzpatrick)


  • Highlight: Molinari was two strokes better than anyone in the field on Sunday with a 64 (seven strokes better than Fitzpatrick).
  • Note: Six of the top-7 for the week in SG:OTT cashed top-10 paychecks when all was said and done.

2018: Rory McIlroy (-18, three strokes clear of Bryson DeChambeau)


  • Highlight: Like Molinari, it was a Sunday 64 that got the job done (he was -13 over the weekend after a less impressive -5 start through two rounds).
  • Note: McIlroy road a red-hot putter (+10 strokes on the field), and four of the top-5 putters for the week finished T7 or better on the final leaderboard.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Notes​


This is your yearly reminder to consult the weather report before submitting lineups or making any wagers. A clear wave stack due to wind may emerge and you’ll want to take advantage of that. If the gusts are up, that will dramatically change the type of player you may want to target this week. The wind is up at this course as a default and it may not be too big of a deal.


Then there was 2020. Weekend wind made the course a scoring death trap for the field. Matthew Fitzpatrick (69 in Round 4) was the only player to crack 70 on the weekend. Tyrrell Hatton was the first player since Geoff Ogilvy at the 2006 U.S. Open to fire two rounds over par on a weekend and still win. Last year, Scottie Scheffler charged from the pack Saturday when the leaders started to get dealt treacherous conditions. Obviously, the forecast can change as the week goes on, but early indications show Friday may be an absolute bloodbath.


Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari both staged at least six-stroke Sunday comebacks in 2018 and 2019, so no one is ever dead at Bay Hill. This can provide an excellent live betting opportunity if you have the guts to believe in a massive comeback from someone not necessarily showing the form in the moment.


Water ripples in the eye line of almost every shot and sand is ubiquitous (84 bunkers), not to mention that the rough tends to be longer than the opening in Deer Hunter. That wedding sceen makes The Neverending Story feel like a pulp novella.


Similar to Riviera a few weeks back, Bay Hill actually plays longer than its 7,419 yards. With the prevalent water and series of doglegs, the holes have more distance to carry than they are actually measured on the scorecard. More so when you consider the average drive is over five yards shorter than the average PGA TOUR event (277 yards to 283 yards). While there are only nine officially listed water hazards, the wetness directly affects those nine holes in an impactful way. Fortunately, the greenside bunkers at Bay Hill are some of the easiest on the PGA TOUR annually, so bailing out to the non-water side of the greens is the preferred option on the longer approaches.


Players are forced to lay up off the tee to keep dry or set themselves up for a clean look at the green, the reason driving accuracy at Bay Hill (65%) is over four percentage points above the PGA TOUR average (61%). Do that, or risk paying the price — like on the par 5 sixth hole. You can take the water on to save some distance (RIP Bryson DeChambeau in this event) and try to get on the green in two, or you can end up carding an 18 like John Daly in 1998. Since 1983, No. 6 has produced 23 scores in the double-digits. That’s the most on PGA TOUR by a large margin.


If you’re someone who leans on stats and modeling to make decisions, beware of the international players whose primary tour is not the PGA TOUR. Small samples, strung across myriad years for some, will yield insufficient results — both good or bad. With the wind playing a factor, there has been an inordinate amount of international players who’ve succeeded over the years at Bay Hill. That may be less so in 2023 now that the API is an elevated event featuring all the best players, but the ability to navigate the wind and scramble from all over have proven to be valuable skills which are simply more practiced on DP World Tour courses.


Strokes Gained: Approach has been over two times as influential on the Top-5 finishers as SG: Off The Tee, and three times more impactful than SG: Around The Green. The gap between each of the SG stats shrinks if expanded to the top-20 finishers. Looking at winners only, SG: APP is 2.7 times more impactful than SG: OTT and 4.2 times against SG: ATG. Yes, SG: APP is always the most important stat to look at, however it’s more pronounced this week with so many approaches coming from beyond 200 yards. Historically, around 30% of approaches will come from that distance, one of the largest distributions of approach shots from 200+ yards of any course on the PGA TOUR.


Much of that has to do with the Par 3s, as they average over 215 yards in length. Patrick Rodgers, Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Sam Burns and Joesph Bramlett are the top players on holes from this length over the past 36 rounds.


The greens at Bay Hill have annually played extremely quick in comparison to most courses. The players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round on fast + LIGHTNING greens per round over their past 36 rounds are: Andrew Putnam, Taylor Montgomery, Beau Hossler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Jon Rahm and Harris English.


Isolating those fast and lightning greens to just Bermuda putting surfaces: Thomas Detry, Taylor Montgomery, Ben Taylor, Kevin Kisner, Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton and Sam Ryder lead all players.


Marc Leishman and Jason Day have won both at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines in the past seven years. Other Farmers champs Justin Rose, Luke List and Max Homa have multiple Top-10 results at Bay Hill as well. Tiger Woods historically dominates both courses. That’s everywhere but Riviera, though.


Rory McIlroy, Chris Kirk, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im and Tyrrell Hatton have the most Strokes Gained: Total in the past five years at Bay Hill.


Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Kirk, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Charley Hoffman and Tommy Fleetwood have posted Top-20 finishes in each of their past two starts at API. In only one appearance from the past three years, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa boast Top-10 finishes.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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some ideas....

Value Picks​

Jhonattan Vegas (+3400) - So far this season, Vegas has managed an incredible statistical feat and one of the widest disparities between strength and weakness we can ever recall. He ranks 1st on the entire Tour in strokes gained: off the tee but 206th in strokes gained: putting. That's seven golfers from dead last, folks.

He's solid all the way up to the green in fact, as he ranks 29th in strokes gained: approach and 19th in strokes gained: around the green. Of course, the sneaky tidbit is that Vegas has not played all that much this season. Three rounds at the AmEx followed by finishes of T25 at Torrey Pines, T23 at Scottsdale, and T56 at the Riv are enough to believe he's hitting it well but has been extremely unlucky with the flat stick. He's one to watch on his preferred bermuda this week.

Thomas Detry (+3400) - Detry has been consistent so far this season, and his finish are frequently reflective of his relative talent in a given field. The big-hitting Belgian placed inside the top 15 in four of five fall events, highlighted by a runner-up at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Notably that event and the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he was T9, are bermuda courses. He had less success on the West Coast even though he did not figure into the prime events on the schedule.

Detry has the pedigree of a top-five amateur from his days at the University of Illinois, but that has not translated to wins on the DP World Tour or PGA Tour yet. He is the beneficiary of a weak field this week but is still offered at a moderate price. While not our typical headliner, Detry is worthy of a spot on our card against this lot.

Long Shots​

Hayden Buckley (+5500) - Buckley has an elite skill in this field, ranking fifth on the entire Tour in strokes gained: off the tee. He's also popped a few times already this season, first with a T5 at the ZOZO Championship and then with a runner-up at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Both represent a solid adjustment to new surroundings -- the ZOZO the lone event in Asia this swing season, and the Sony Open the first full event of the season a world away from the rest of mainland events.

He missed the cut at Riviera but was T29 at the WM Phoenix Open the week before, an inspiring finish against the world's best. We'll take the MC at the Genesis as a blessing in disguise, an opportunity for Buckley to head east without much wear and tear. Another solid finish could make him a winner for a Top 10 Finish (+550).

Mark Hubbard (+12000) - Top-15 finishes in two of the last three years catch the eye, and Hubbard really only stands a chance when the field strength takes a dip. His fifth-place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship was his best of the season by a mile, though he managed respectable top-30s in the Fortinet Championship, the Shriners Children's Open, and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

On the season, he's 57th in strokes gained: approach, which is nothing special but also significant given how many of the top 50 are not in this field. There's also room to improve to his baseline, as he ranked 20th in approach last season. A hot week with the irons could be enough to put him in the mix. He looks like a decent value for a Top 20 Finish (+360).

Akshay Bhatia (+21000) - Bhatia's played just twice on the PGA Tour this season, finishing T17 in Bermuda and 45th at the RSM Classic. He started the new year with consecutive top 10s on the Korn Ferry Tour but missed his next two starts. Most striking on the 21-year-old's resume is his win on the KFT 13 months ago, just a week shy of turning 20 years old. As we ratchet up the variance, some stabs way down the board come into play. Bhatia is someone who can actually elevate his game and make a splash at PGA National.
 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Weather Report​


Per The Weather Channel:


Thursday, March 2


The Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off Thursday with a high of 88 degrees and a low of 64 degrees in what should be a perfect sunny day in Bay Hill, Fla. The winds are expected to remain under 10 mph, with a precipitation chance of just 8%


Friday, March 3


Friday calls for more of the same for the Arnold Palmer Invitational weather report. The high will remain in the upper 80s, with a low of 69 degrees. The winds will stay moderate, with some cloud cover making its way to Bay Hill in the afternoon.


Saturday, March 4


Saturday calls for some slightly different conditions. The high will be 89 degrees, with a low remaining in the 60s, but some wind is expected to become a factor. Per the report, wind gusts could reach into the mid-20s, and the precipitation chance rises to 24%.
 

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Jon Rahm at it again.
Leader at -7
 

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