Too many points.
Arkansas can run the ball, and their rush defense is very good. They struggled against Texas Tech stopping the run, but Tennessee doesn't have the passing attack TT does to keep them off balance. Their other 3 games they did a very good job stopping it. The pass defense has struggled, but Tennessee doesn't have the passing game to exploit it.
Arkansas averages 5 yards a pop running it, Tennessee gives up 145 a game on 4.1 a carry. Arkansas should have beaten A&M last week and was a dog in this same price range.
Arkansas keeps this close, and may very well win outright.