Arena Week 9

[ppeter]

YTD

All plays: 50-36-01 22.25 units 58.14%

Det -5(wwts) 3 units
Det ov 99.5 1 unit
I have gotten killed backing Georgia big the last two weeks. It is apparent qb Murray has dreadfully regressed for unknown reasons. The entire Georgia offense is mistake prone now and their D was horrible to begin with. QB Kelly is on a roll for Detroit.

 

[been_there]

PPeter,

You are right, Murray has played horrible the last 2 weeks, from what I've read, if he struggles 1st half, look for backup QB 2nd half..
2 games ago, Ga went into Ind, and ran into a team that had just fired their coach ( Deberg ), and Ind brought their best game and has continued to play well since...just the breaks of the schedule
Last week their fullback Robert Thomas did not play ( flu ), so TB tortured Murray...TB aslo brought their best game,putting Stafford back in as a starter..I bet Ga under last week because they run a lot and control the ball, if I knew Thomas was out, probably would have made a smaller bet, but I didn't see the lineups in time ( lucky me )...So if they played this game 2 weeks ago, Det would have been a 1-2 point fav,so getting + 6 has some value...and I did play Ga + 6 hoping Murray shows up..Now that you are on Det -5, maybe the game will come 5 or 6 and we'll both be happy...But my bet will be smaller, as I would prefer we both liked the same side and then I would press, I'm certainly not looking to go against a proven winner in this sport..
I did play over with you,made game 103, and that matches,so will make that my bigger bet..

GL

 

[ppeter]

been there

you sound really, really sharp. good info, thanks. I look forward to your picks.

 

[ppeter]

adding one more unit on Det over @ 101

total 2 units on Det over 1 each @ 99.5 and 101 (wwts)

 

[ppeter]

Georgia just got the backdoor with 19 sec to go. These guys will be death of me, they screw me no matter what side I am on with them.

 

[cfbguy]

yeah tough loss if you had detroit. im leaning toward indiana and austin saturday. any thoughts? what do you think for totals?

 

[ppeter]

for sat.

Frankfurt -5.5 (NFLE) 2 units
Indy/Col ov 93.5 (CRIS) 1 unit
Aust/LA ov 109 2 units
LA -6.5 1 unit

 

[qs185]

ppeter,

Way to kick off the NFLE season!!! And 2-1 in arena was nice as well.

Thanks,
Bart

 

[ppeter]

Thanks Bart. FYI I am by no means an NFLE expert. I was picking games last year but began losing and abandoned it. I am trying again this year.

NFLE
Berlin -1 3 units
Most of Berlins coaching staff are former Scotland coaches who were fired en masse last year. Replacing them is one of the most experienced NFLE coaches in history and his staff. However, I think revenge should be sweet for the former Claymores coaches for several reasons. 1) revenge and inside knowledge of the other teams players 2) huge home edge as Belin is one of the noisiest stadiums in NFLE and 3) HUGE qb edge IMO with Rohan Davey over Nate Hybl. Nate Hybl, yucck...he will be the next Scott Frost...college star without NFL talent.

Rhein -7 2 units
I know it is a lot of chalk but it seems justified based on intense home field edge (Rhein and Colonge are 27 mi apart and historically hate each other going back to midieval times) and HUGE qb edge IMO. Rhein starts Chad Hutchinson who is battling for his NFL life and has significant starting experience with the Cowboys. Cologne starts RYAN VAN DYKE who 1) has never taken a snap in an nfl game and 2) SUCKED ASS EVEN AS A COLLEGE PLAYER. He threw as many ints and tds at Mich St and only started a season ans a half.

Arena
Chi/LV ov 103.5 3 units
Both teams have serious deficiencies on defense. In fact, neither team even plays defense and simply try to outshoot their opponents.

NY -5.5 2 units
NY is in terrific form with 3 spread covering wins in a row. They are clicking on both sides of the ball. Carol has regressed after a hot start and the fans are rapidly losing interest. Two teams heading in opposite directions.

Ariz/GR ov 92 2 units

 

[been_there]

PPeter,

Played the same 3 games as you, but not the exact way...2of the other 3 games have injured QB's and too many other variables..

I played Ariz-GrR over with you.I bet it early in the week,so caught a great #, 90.5...I would have played this for more, but at time wasn't sure of the status of Steve Smith for GrR,he's a key for them,and even though looks to start, he has a bad knee, if he didn't,I would have made a big bet here...

Played the Chi-LV game,didn't get involved in total, did play LV though, think they might have the wrong favorite here.Chi is 5-2, but if you look at their schedule, have played only 1 team with winning record..

I bet Carolina, and since it looks like I'm the only person who likes this side and I'm against everybody else, I guess I'm going to have to reduce my bet...Here' why I did though..
Carolina coach John Gregory coached in NY for I think 7 seasons,started this year as off coordinator for Carolina,thus the improved scoring.He took over as head coach 2 games ago after they fired their coach and has gone 1-1 since.Win over TB was without Soloman, but last week against a very good VooDoo team were in game until near end of the 3rd Q.For some reason,down 7 in a 1 possesion game,Carolina kicked a FG and VooDoo got the ball back and never looked back.Nagy also schooled under Garcia when in NY, just hoping he doesn't come out with butterflies in his stomach.Game has been time changed for Nat TV.Carolina is supposed to bring their best team,problem is like you said,they may be going wrong direction and best team may not be good enough...

GL

 

[qs185]

Arena week 9 another winning week!



Week 9 another winning week in arena football!


All plays: 04-03-01 1.40 units 57.14%
Side plays: 02-01-00 -0.30 units 66.67%
Total plays: 02-02-01 1.70 units 50.00%

5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
4 / 4.5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
3 / 3.5 unit plays: 01-01-00 -0.30 units 50.00%
2 / 2.5 unit plays: 02-01-01 1.80 units 66.67%
1 / 1.5 unit plays: 01-01-00 -0.10 units 50.00%


YTD

All plays: 54-39-02 23.65 units 58.06%
Side plays: 34-27-01 3.85 units 55.74%
Total plays: 20-12-01 19.80 units 62.50%

5 unit plays: 00-02-00 -11.50 units 00.00%
4 / 4.5 unit plays: 06-05-00 2.00 units 54.55%
3 / 3.5 unit plays: 21-11-00 26.30 units 65.63%
2 / 2.5 unit plays: 23-16-02 8.35 units 58.97%
1 / 1.5 unit plays: 04-05-00 -1.50 units 44.44%



NFLE Week 1 is a winner.


YTD

All plays: 02-01-00 2.80 units 66.67%
Side plays: 02-01-00 2.80 units 66.67%
Total plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%

5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
4 / 4.5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
3 / 3.5 unit plays: 01-00-00 3.00 units 100.00%
2 / 2.5 unit plays: 01-01-00 -0.20 units 50.00%
1 / 1.5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%


Thanks and good luck,
Bart

 

[ppeter]

thanks Bart

 

[been_there]

Thanks Bart,

And thanks PPeter, you saved me 80% of a bet..It probably should have been more, but I kind of got stuck on this Carolina team thinking they are/were better than they are...
I did sell off about 40% of my bet before game started, hoping to generate a middle vs playing into the same #...I got what I wanted, 17-17 at half, and got off some more...A bet saved is just like a winner...Scary thing is, this coach for Carolina,with 1st and goal and 32 seconds left in 1st h, from the 5, ran 3 horrible plays and kicked another field goal with about 15 seconds left to tie the game....it did give me some room to side/middle, but if he continues to coach this way, the team is dead...
I have a Q for this forum if anybody knows...
I did have LasVegas + 3, they lost by 2, I thought they had the wrong fav,and since the only time Chi was ahead was after the last play of game...Q is, when Chi started the play with 1 second left,and threw a TD pass off the net, do they/did they have a chance to kick the extra point,or was the game over...for me, it was perfect, had LV + 3 for game,and when ahead by 7 at half, sold some, so I middled....But I think I probably should know the rules before I bet, I've been winning,but think I've been a little lucky also...
Don't get me wrong, I'd rather be lucky and win vs being the smartest and lose....
I just try to find live dogs with value, surely is why you never see a fav from me...

 

[ppeter]

Keep posting your info!