Arena Week 5

[ppeter]

All plays: 23-20-01 -3.60 units 53.49%


Ok, hopefully this is the week we finally get to EAT. Early plays:

ARIZONA RATTLERS -10 3 units
OK, I was wrong about Arizona. They are playing much like last season where they started off slow and came on as the year progressed. The Destroyers have some serious, serious problems on both sides of the ball.

INDIANA FIREBIRDS +10 -120 2 units
I will once again ride McPherson who is probably taking the points as well offshore but taking the other team on the moneyline

GEORGIA FORCE +4½ 3 units
This is a weird line. After a one game bad start Georgia has shown they can compete with anybody when they knocked off LA on the ROAD last week. Vegas has serious deficiencies on D.

SAN JOSE SABERCATS/NEW YORK DRAGONS over 105½ 3 units This has shootout written all over it. Total is 10 points too low.

AUSTIN WRANGLERS -2½ 2 units
I have officially thrown in the towel on Carolina as they have shown a real propensity to turn the ball over in the second half of games. Austin is Tampa Bay West.

More to come.

 

[olddog]

Ppeter, nice comeback last week, over 50% on your picks now and soon in the positive unitwise, i'm sure.

I also like Georgia very much. LV is way overrated after beating LA and whipping one bad and one mediocre team. They whipped N.O. because N.O. had 4 TOs. LA was decimated in the 2ndary. And GR stinks.

Last year lines were much smaller overall, weren't they. We have 3 double digit fav this week.

The books are nervous this year as Pinny and 5Dimes still have not posted numbers. I only find numbers at Oly, BetLaspalmas, Millenium and Carib

 

[Rosey]

What a wacky start to this season....

I agree with your comments on Arizona. I warned evereyone about Zona not losing 3 in a row in franchise history when they paid Carolina a visit, and now they've rallied to take their next 2. Columbus really faltered in the second half last week after going into the locker room on the ultimate high after a returned tuddy after a missed FG. Bonner and Co look to be starting to gel.

I rode Indy big last week vs. Chicago, but the loss of WR Horacek has me a bit worried about their abilities to cover this lofty number in Orlando. Hopefully you're right, and McPherson tries his damndest to cover the number with a ticket on the Firebirds plus the points in his back pocket...LOL.

Georgia has been an enigma all season long, and I'm yet to win a game they've played this year. They like playing on the road better, but maybe their due in their own arena. Not sure where you see big poroblems in Vegas' defense as their numbers look pretty solid to me. They alos have great special teams. Best bet might be "Over"....

The Dragons are w/out the services of Garcia this weekend due to an ankle sprain he siffered in Zona. Just an FYI....

Austin lost a toughy last weekend vs. Elway's bunch, while Carolina has digressed in their 2 home games after bolting out to a 2-0 start. They did play much better on the road to date, but QB Kaleo's gotta be licking his chops to tear apart that Carolina secondary.

One game you didn't mention is the TB/NO match-up. The VooDoo lost their first game of the season last week, but turnover's played a major role vs. a very determined Vegas squad. This is a huge divisional game for both of these clubs, and TB definitely looks susceptible after their less than impressive home win vs. the Soul whom the VooDoo beat on the road in week 1. I think a money line play on NO presents huge value if the line keeps going in TB's direction.

Let's put the woman and children to bed, and Slam this weeks Arena league action in a big time way!!!!!

 

[ppeter]

Thanks for the insightful picks, Rosey

Adding:

Dallas -19 2 units
G.R. is a go-against until they finally cover a game. Dallas has put their qb problems behind them and appear back to last years form when they were a top 5 team.

Chi/Phil over 92 (cris) 3 units
Chi has pass D problems, nothing wrong with their potent offense, though

 

[ppeter]

thanks for confirming the Georgia pick, OD.

I think that although they have been winning, the books are nervous because the handle is getting bigger. Chalk it up to the increasing popularity of the game and the fact a lot of players have cash in their pocket from the past successful nfl season.

 

[daringly]

Rosey - you said Garcia isn't playing this weekend against SJ? I double checked the injury reports and newsfeeds. As far as I can tell, Garcia is 100% expected to play. Where did hear he wasn't playing?

 

[olddog]

Re Garcia: here's a two-day old story about Garcia-updates appreciated.

"Replacing one of the Arena Football League's best quarterbacks is not a simple task, but Chris Boden may get that chance this week.
Trying to rally his team back from a deep deficit Sunday against the Arizona Rattlers, New York Dragons quarterback Aaron Garcia suffered a severely sprained ankle. He was not able to return to the game, and was replaced by Boden, who went 2-for-8 and was intercepted on the Dragons' final drive.

But don't let Boden's performance in Arizona give you the perception that if he has to make the start this week, the Dragons will be doomed against undefeated San Jose.

Backup quarterbacks are always supposed to be ready to take over at any moment, which Boden was.

Any quarterback coming off the bench has to get into the rhythm of the game, and going from the cold bench to the heat of the battle, you need a few drives to get warmed up. Getting thrown into a one-minute drill, Boden wasn't given that luxury.

Dragons fans may be concerned because the Dragons have been poor without Garcia under center. In 2002, when Garcia was in camp with the San Francisco 49ers, replacements such as Matt Nagy, Danny Kannell and Danny Ragsdale were sub-par at the least. Last season, when Garcia missed two games with a head injury, Brent Petrus and Walter Church got the job done, but really did not prove themselves.

But Boden is none of the above quarterbacks, experience-wise. Though he is an unknown commodity, he spent time holding a clipboard with the New Jersey Gladiators and got some playing time with the Indiana Firebirds before getting sent down to af2."

 

[ppeter]

Sh.t. No Garcia would screw my big over play. Heres hoping he is in.

Adding:

Colo +4 (buy .5 pt) 2 units.

 

[daringly]

I liked NYu105, and NY+8'.

I expect SJ to get 1-2 stops on interceptions, and 1 more stop on time. NY will lose by 6 or 7, as SJ doesn't bother to score on its last possession. No offense can eat up time like SJ when they are up.

 

[olddog]

It appears Garcia will play-latest story from Dragon's website: "On the offensive side of the ball this week, all eyes will be on Dragons QB Aaron Garcia. The former All-Arena star hurt his ankle towards the end of last week’s loss to the Arizona Rattlers. However, there’s no doubt that he’ll be in the lineup this week against the SaberCats.

“His ankle is a little sore, but he’s a tough guy,” Shell pointed out. “He’s played with injures before and right now there’s no question that he’ll play.”

Added Garcia: “The ankle is getting better each day. The trainers are working on it everyday to get it back into shape. For me, I need to put some confidence in it and it’ll be fine for Sunday.” "

I've seen good players with relatively minor injuries have great games.

 

[ppeter]

OK, I am doing well so far this week (2-0 +5 units) so I am going to press. Adding:

LV/Geo ov 99 1 unit
Phi +4 2 units
NO +3.5 3 units
Also, upgrade Indy +9 to 3 units (2 units previously at +10)

[This message was edited by ppeter on March 06, 2004 at 06:07 AM.]

 

[boltgirl]

uuughh....i went with the firebirds+9 and i got hammered. again. thats all for roxy folks. see ya in the fall when college football begins. it will take that long to recover from the huge financial losses ive taken since following others in here.lol. gl to ya all.~rg

 

[SaintJoe57]

Roxy, this aint the NFL girl! It's a totally different animal. I think right now other than a few select games leaning to chalk is the way to go here in the AFL at present. Just take last weeks games that I played, if I had played all my selections as Monster teasers (3-team 10 pointers) any combination would have won. Lets just say I have ripped books using teasers in the AFL in the past. Some like them, some hate them, some take you for a total square if you even consider them. Me I love them here in the AFL, but I have learned that making money in the NFL off them can be hard. I can't count the times that I've went 2 for 3 in the NFL using the 3 teamers. Playing teasers can be a good thing in the right hands & used with common sense.

 

[qs185]

ppeter,

Eating like kings this week!!! Can't believe someone isn't hanging around because they chose the wrong play to back. Back all your plays and you will be ahead at the end of the season!!!

I counted the Indiana loss as a 3 unit play, but only an exta 20 cents in juice (since the third unit at +9 was at -110). This is why the 5-1 on 3 unit plays produced 11.50 instead of 11.70 units.


Week 5

All plays: 08-03-00 14.20 units 72.73%
Side plays: 06-02-00 9.30 units 75.00%
Total plays: 02-01-00 4.90 units 66.67%

5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
4 / 4.5 unit plays: 00-00-00 0.00 units 00.00%
3 / 3.5 unit plays: 05-01-00 11.50 units 83.33%
2 / 2.5 unit plays: 03-01-00 3.80 units 75.00%
1 / 1.5 unit plays: 00-01-00 -1.10 units 00.00%



YTD

All plays: 31-23-01 10.60 units 57.41%
Side plays: 19-16-01 -0.60 units 54.29%
Total plays: 12-07-00 11.20 units 63.16%

5 unit plays: 00-01-00 -6.00 units 00.00%
4 / 4.5 unit plays: 02-02-00 -0.80 units 50.00%
3 / 3.5 unit plays: 12-07-00 12.70 units 63.16%
2 / 2.5 unit plays: 15-10-01 6.50 units 60.00%
1 / 1.5 unit plays: 02-03-00 -1.80 units 40.00%


Looking forward to more great weeks!!!

Thanks,
Bart

 

[ppeter]

Thanks Bartman. We came close to a perfect week (the losers were all by 3 points or less). Glad you were onboard for all the winners

 

[TheGeneral+]

Good job ppeter

 

[hansenbros.]

good work.

gl