Arena week 3

[ppeter]

Ok, here we go, lines just came out. Jump NOW as these plays will probably see heavy steam (they are just too obvious)....

Columbus +3 -140 (buy 1.5 pt.) 2.5 units.
Columbus is the much better team and may have the best D in the AFL. Philly is by far the worst of the expansion clubs.

Carol -2 -120 (buy .5 pt.) 5 units (Play of the Month)
The oddsmakers still have not caught up to the fact that Arizona is the 2003 Oakland Raiders and Carolina is the 2003, well, Carolina Panthers. I was the first to notice that and post about Arizona resembling the 2003 Raiders last week and CHRIS DAVID OF VEGAS INSIDER.COM "APPARENTLY" STOLE MY LINE AND USED IT IN HIS 2/17 STORY. Didn't think I noticed that, huh Chris?

NY -6 3 units.
NY really should have won last week and Dallas really should have lost. Both covered or failed to cover due to missed or blocked xp's. Hopefully the law of averages catches up for this game.

LV -7 -120 (buy .5 pt.) 4 units.
The former Grand Rapid offensive stars are coming back to town (they play for Vegas now) to blow out a listless, no-id G.R. club. Too bad this line is so high, otherwise I would have had 2 5 unit plays for this week.

More to come.

[This message was edited by ppeter on February 18, 2004 at 03:31 PM.]

 

[ppeter]

Also, remember what I posted about last week...missed xp's are going to be a HUGE factor in covering the spread this year. Don't be shy about buying hooks. I won't. I already was saved on at least one game (Philly last week) by buying the hook.

 

[ppeter]

Sweet Jeezus...LV just steamed to -11.

I would not lay that number.

 

[starwish]

12 @ Stations now....

 

[Rosey]

The line moves in this league are simply amazing...It just soaks the value right out of every game.

Anyway, the Carolina/Arizona game looks very interesting to me. The Cobras suffered an entire year of futility in 03, and now have their home fans going nuts by getting out of the gate 2-0. Zona definitely looks to be off right now, but this team is loaded with talent and proven veterans. Sherdick Bonner has had a rough time of it so far, but its only a matter of time before he starts to click with his WR's. The Cobras offense has been fun to watch thus far, and their defense has proven to be resilient. The simple fact that Arizona hasn't lost 3 games in a row SU has me a bit worried about backing the home team, but I do expect there to be plenty of action in this one. AZ HC White has already put the groundwork in to turn this around. He just cut a AFL vet from their line, and pronounced everyone as rookies regardless of how long they've been in the league. OS Cooper then called a players only meeting, and the same type of meeting occurred a year ago after their rough start. The team then went on to tear the league up and play in the Arena Bowl.

Now, I do believe the snakes will take a little bit more time to gel, but they've won every time they've lost 2 in a row in the franchises existence. That's something I don't feel like going against. Carolina showed a bunch of moxy a week ago in the 4th against Columbus and got the SU win but no cover. I foresee both squads exchanging blows throughout, and for the snakes to push this Cobras squad to the limit. I think points will be a plenty on Friday night, and either team wins this one in a shoot-out. So, Over Over Over!!!!

Opinions welcome and wanted....

 

[ppeter]

Nice write up, thanks

 

[boltgirl]

you sold me! its so hard to get a handle on the 1st month of any sport but arena is really hard due to all the changes. but i love it.RG

 

[ppeter]

LOL,thanks. The more fans we get following arenaball, the more books will book the games, the lines will come out earlier, more props and halftime lines, etc. etc.

As a side note, I was told by Millenium today in no uncertain terms they "were concerned about my arena action." They banned me from betting on arena games over the internet, among other things. Turns out they didn't like the fact all the line movements went my way, even though I am playing very, very small. Go figure.

 

[ppeter]

LOL,thanks. The more fans we get following arenaball, the more books will book the games, the lines will come out earlier, more props and halftime lines, etc. etc.

As a side note, I was told by Millenium today in no uncertain terms they "were concerned about my arena action." They banned me from betting on arena games over the internet, among other things. Turns out they didn't like the fact all the line movements went my way, even though I am playing very, very small. Go figure.

 

[Railbird]

Ppeter,


I agree with all your plays, but I disagree about buying hooks in arena football, I would never do that. I think the staem is goinmg the wrong way in Jose-La game.

 

[boltgirl]

ive been a fan of arena football a long time but this is the 1st year im betting on it. isnt 12 points alot to give on the road? is vegas really that much better than anyone not named the soul or voodoo?RG

 

[Railbird]

Obviously you would prefer to lay 7, but I think you are still ok laying 12. I think this line should be 20

 

[Railbird]

I miised out on the 7 and am laying 12 in case your interested. maybe play 1st half too so your laying 6.5 instead of 4 which will not be a factor. Steam means nothing to me, I go on it and/ or against it. Its just another number.

 

[ppeter]

I wouldn't lay 12. I would pass. If it gets to 14, I will buy back 1/2 the play.

 

[boltgirl]

ok gimme some help here then. i have sj/la under 109,colo/chi under 94 and ny-9 so grab the 12 and gr or go over 97?

 

[qs185]

Wow. I need to start being around for the opening lines, the moves are too much.

They must be moving the line the way 5 dimes does on 1-AA action, 2 pts after a $250 bet.

Is there a set time when the lines come out, seemed like it was Wednesday at 3pm this week?


ppeter, I just sent a note asking general pete to pass my e-mail along to you, would like to discuss some things.


Thanks,
Bart

[This message was edited by qs185 on February 21, 2004 at 08:35 AM.]

 

[olddog]

ppeter - you sure did a nice job of getting in early and beating the sharps. You have alot of of value on some of those bets. I'd be strongly tempted to bet some off on the other side of a few of those games trying for a middle.

I'll bet Millenium won't post as early next week. Much more betting attention on AFL this year. I know of only two books that have $-lines posted - 5Dimes and Oly. Pinnacle doesn't have $-lines up yet. Unfortunately, as gambling interest increases, the lines will get better and better and tougher to beat.

 

[ppeter]

Hi guys

Yes, Bartman, I got your email, thanks

I am licking my wounds from Saturday. The Carolina game was esp. disappointing as they were in control at halftime but went turnover crazy in the 2nd half, only scoring one TD.

I agree that I should have tried to middle the Philly game, too much stream.

I will post my added picks later this sunday, once Bodog comes up with lines.

 

[ppeter]

Adding:

LA ov 112 3 units
As everyone knows, this should be a shootout with LA defense ailing. I don't like a side.

Colo +8 4 units
Colo ov 94 2 units

TB ov 93.5 2 units
I like the overs this morning.

NO ov 93.5 2 units
Geo -5 1 unit

Dall ov 101.5 1.5 units

GR +14 (buy the hook) 2 units
attempting a small middle since I got LV -7 for 4 units. The big line movers are not doing well so far this year.

 

[olddog]

ppeter - since you like to buy hooks, you should ck out pinnacle as they allow you to buy 1/2 pt for only 6 to 8 cents.

For example: GR +13 -104; +13.5 -110; +14 -118 or +14.5 -126

Good luck, esp on that huge middle opportunity.