AP Top 25 - which top 15 team implodes in 2014?

[rolltide]

AP released their top 25

Rank	School	Points
1	Florida State (57)	1,496
2	Alabama (1)	1,361
3	Oregon (1)	1,334
4	Oklahoma (1)	1,324
5	Ohio State	1,207
6	Auburn	1,198
7	UCLA	1,106
8	Michigan State	1,080
9	South Carolina	1,015
10	Baylor	966
11	Stanford	885
12	Georgia	843
13	LSU	776
14	Wisconsin	637
15	USC	626
16	Clemson	536
17	Notre Dame	445
18	Mississippi	424
19	Arizona State	357
20	Kansas State	242
21	Texas A&M	238
22	Nebraska	226
23	North Carolina	194
24	Missouri	134
25	Washington	130

Others receiving votes: UCF 94, Florida 87, Texas 86, Duke 71, Iowa 68, Louisville 48, Marshall 41, Oklahoma State 37, Virginia Tech 26, TCU 23, Mississippi State 22, Michigan 19, Texas Tech 19, Miami (FL) 16, Cincinnati 15, Boise State 10, Oregon State 10, Northwestern 8, BYU 8, Penn State 5, Vanderbilt 2, Navy 2, Nevada 1, Louisiana-Lafayette 1, Utah State 1

__________________________________________________________________________


so time for the annual "which top 15 team implodes" thread to find those top 15 teams that won't see the top 25 rankings at the end of the season. Only one team with 5 losses (UM 2012) saw the top 25 so you're looking for a top 15 team from above that will lose at least 5 games, including bowls.

2012 I had WVU (started #11, finished 7-6) http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=913225
2013 I had FLA (started #10, finished 4-8) http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=962207

 

[russ1945]

Possible Imploders: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Arizona St, Texas A&M, Nebraska, N. Carolina, Mizzou, and Washington

Possible Break Thru Teams: UCF, Florida, Iowa, Louisville, Marshall, Virginia Tech, Miss State, NW, and BYU.

 

[CoachCB]

Ohio State. Not a total implosion....but 3-4 losses.

 

[pathologist]

Mich state

 

[tmader7]

Frankly, I'm still scratching my ass trying to figure out how A&M made it in. Since they have, they get all my vote(s) here. They have one gimme on the SEC slate, hosting Arkansas at Kyle Field. They won't win a single SEC road game without divine intervention, and he's playing for the Cleveland Browns now, lol, and their other three SEC slates at home are Ole Miss, Mizzou and LSWho. I'd give them a 75% chance of winning one of those, 25% of winning two and my two friends slim and none of winning all three. So at best, they go 4-4 in conference and go bowling, but more likely will go 1-7 or 2-6 and be pheasant or javelina hunting after the regular season.

~T~

 

[achandicap]

If Clemson were in the Top 15, I'd take them. Too young, and overrated as it was last year. But within the Top 15, I think your best bets are Stanford and Wisconsin. Wisconsin could lose the opener to LSU, then has to go on the road against Northwestern and Iowa. Maybe late in the year with the division title lost, they also lose to Nebraska and Minnesota. Stanford could lose the second game of the season to USC, then lose at Washington and Notre Dame. At that point, everyone kicks them when they're down.

 

[Mr.ThunderCat]

oklahoma, seems they always struggle when they are in the pre season top 5 and i never trust em. big 12 actually seems like a beat each other every week conference. TCU will be improved, Baylor is gonna be good, Oklahoma is still gonna be good, i just don't think top 10 good.

 

[REDEYE]

Auburn won't win all of those close ones this year...

 

[GoSooners]

oklahoma, seems they always struggle when they are in the pre season top 5 and i never trust em. big 12 actually seems like a beat each other every week conference. TCU will be improved, Baylor is gonna be good, Oklahoma is still gonna be good, i just don't think top 10 good.

I actually took OU under 10.5 wins for the season. It doesn't really have anything to do with being preseason top 5. I believe they were top 5 in 2008 and lived up to the hype. It has more to do with the Sooners margin for error to get to 11 wins being much smaller this season than it will be next year when they will have a fully loaded team and some key skill players that will have more experience by then. Plus Knight hasn't been able to play more than 3 games straight without getting hurt. He was hurt on two different occasions last season. The preseason predictions with OU have been kind of odd this year. Phil Steele and the media like OU to win the conference. But Vegas set their win total at 10.5 with (-110) juice either way. Which is giving us a slight hint that they aren't quite as confident about the Sooners as everybody else. When I see that kind of low vig with a double digit total, I almost always tend to lean under...If it does go under, we could see a big clusterfuck in the Big 12 this year because 2 losses definitely won't win the conference outright...

 

[groundhog11]

I actually took OU under 10.5 wins for the season. It doesn't really have anything to do with being preseason top 5. I believe they were top 5 in 2008 and lived up to the hype. It has more to do with the Sooners margin for error to get to 11 wins being much smaller this season than it will be next year when they will have a fully loaded team and some key skill players that will have more experience by then. Plus Knight hasn't been able to play more than 3 games straight without getting hurt. He was hurt on two different occasions last season. The preseason predictions with OU have been kind of odd this year. Phil Steele and the media like OU to win the conference. But Vegas set their win total at 10.5 with (-110) juice either way. Which is giving us a slight hint that they aren't quite as confident about the Sooners as everybody else. When I see that kind of low vig with a double digit total, I almost always tend to lean under...If it does go under, we could see a big clusterfuck in the Big 12 this year because 2 losses definitely won't win the conference outright...

who do you think will win it?

i see 2 tip tier teams....okla/baylor

middle of the road teams...teams that could all finish 3-8...

then kansas and i st...

 

[GoSooners]

who do you think will win it?

i see 2 tip tier teams....okla/baylor

middle of the road teams...teams that could all finish 3-8...

then kansas and i st...

There is a chance that OU and Baylor both have two losses. There's always a surprise team in the Big 12 every year. This season it could be Texas, TCU or KSU. Asking David Ash to stay healthy is a huge if. But if by chance he does, I've always liked teams with a good defense and running game. Plus they are loaded with returning starters along with TCU. With TCU it's all about their new offensive scheme and QB play. KSU is always a mystery team. But historically Bill Snyder teams have done well when they've had an experienced senior QB.

 

[CoachCB]

Frankly, I'm still scratching my ass trying to figure out how A&M made it in. Since they have, they get all my vote(s) here. They have one gimme on the SEC slate, hosting Arkansas at Kyle Field. They won't win a single SEC road game without divine intervention, and he's playing for the Cleveland Browns now, lol, and their other three SEC slates at home are Ole Miss, Mizzou and LSWho. I'd give them a 75% chance of winning one of those, 25% of winning two and my two friends slim and none of winning all three. So at best, they go 4-4 in conference and go bowling, but more likely will go 1-7 or 2-6 and be pheasant or javelina hunting after the regular season.

~T~

Gotta agree w/ you here. They went 4-4 last year WITH Johnny! I'm sure the D will be improved...but no way the offense is as good, and will likely have a significant fall off (10-20% yards/points reduction?)...

 

[BOBBYW]

I actually took OU under 10.5 wins for the season. It doesn't really have anything to do with being preseason top 5. I believe they were top 5 in 2008 and lived up to the hype. It has more to do with the Sooners margin for error to get to 11 wins being much smaller this season than it will be next year when they will have a fully loaded team and some key skill players that will have more experience by then. Plus Knight hasn't been able to play more than 3 games straight without getting hurt. He was hurt on two different occasions last season. The preseason predictions with OU have been kind of odd this year. Phil Steele and the media like OU to win the conference. But Vegas set their win total at 10.5 with (-110) juice either way. Which is giving us a slight hint that they aren't quite as confident about the Sooners as everybody else. When I see that kind of low vig with a double digit total, I almost always tend to lean under...If it does go under, we could see a big clusterfuck in the Big 12 this year because 2 losses definitely won't win the conference outright...

Totally Agree...

 

[rolltide]

I don't have a team i really love to drop out like last two years but my choice is Stanford followed by USC

I think a lot hinges on the winner in week 2 b/w USC/STAN and I'll predict the loser to end with 4+ losses and outside the top 25.

Stanford's road schedule is loaded with games they'll either be single digit favs or underdogs including ND, ORE, ASU, UW, and UCLA. They'll be favored in all 6 home games and really only one, USC, will be less than DD favs

Power Ratings love this team....none i've seen have them less than 13th with a high of 3rd (?!?!?!) where I don't have them in top 3 in the PAC10. Of course week 2 could have me wishing I chose USC in this slot as SC will have a 20-scholarship deficit vs Stanford but that won't matter in week two and I think, player for player, SC is far more talented and now has a DC that held Stanford to 2 of their 5 lowest yard totals in the past 2 seasons.

Offensively they have a great left tackle but will need to revamp the offensive line and Hogan's 20/10 performance in second year as a starter was not impressive. They need Barry Sanders Jr to pick up where Gaffney left off and he'll be a first-time starter. WR are excellent but big question marks on offensive line and QB for me.

Defensively they have a great secondary returning 67 career starts and the DLine is very good. LB is a question mark but overall this is a good unit.

My issue is largely with the offense line. When you lose 4 starters from perhaps the best offensive line in school history it reminds me a lot of the situation Alabama was facing last year trying to backfill Warmack, Fluker, and Barrett Jones. Even with CyKo and Steen returning (now both in NFL) Bama's line was the worst in the Saban era and they have 4-5 star guys waiting in the wings. Stanford heralded their 2012 draft class as best in history and I believe all 5 expected OL starters are from that class but expectations and experience are very different.

Toss in the murderer's row of road games again both expected division winners (ORE, UCLA) and 3 more top 25 teams (ND, ASU, UW) plus that 2nd week matchup vs SC and I can see 4-5 regular season losses.

So I'll take Stanford to implode from the top 15 in 2014 as I'm buying in to Sarkisian and the Trojans to finish 9-3/10-2 and beat stanford in a few weeks. (of course if stan wins that game I see a clear path to the thin, but extremely talented, trojans to implode)

 

[rolltide]

of course with miller going down the obvious answer now is Ohio State. not sure if there's a single player on a team that was more vital to that team's hopes that BM except maybe Hundley

 

[CoachCB]

Ohio State. Not a total implosion....but 3-4 losses.

For the record....this was in BEFORE the Miller injury!!

 

[akphidelt]

I think Auburn implodes. I really like BYU and Wisconsin to be big timers this year. Thought Wisconsin would win the Big Ten before B Miller going down. I also think they beat LSU and Melvin Gordon wins the Heismann!

 

[GoSooners]

I think Auburn implodes. I really like BYU and Wisconsin to be big timers this year. Thought Wisconsin would win the Big Ten before B Miller going down. I also think they beat LSU and Melvin Gordon wins the Heismann!

I also like Wisconsin to beat LSU. I'm not sure about Auburn imploding, but they won't be sneaking around under the radar this year.

 

[akphidelt]

I also like Wisconsin to beat LSU. I'm not sure about Auburn imploding, but they won't be sneaking around under the radar this year.

I just don't trust their defense. And now teams have a year to look at their offense, don't think it's going to be easy for them. I honestly think they lose 4-5 games.

 

[Albatross]

Auburn implodes
UGA explodes......sleeper for NC.....not being homer with this.