ANYONE who plays Colorado -3.5 or -4 is a FOOL!

[winkyduck]

why do i say that

simple. 24-48 hours ago you could have gotten Colorado -3

and now people who waited for some reason - now are rushing to the window to play the Buffs at -3.5 or -4 and are happy about it.

this is why the books win every year and why they are expanding not contracting.

isn't the ONE THING we have learned here is that playing the right team is FAR LESS IMPORTANT than playing the right number!

what this means is when you play the fave you lay as little as possible and when you play the dog. on a KEY number like 3 - it is vital to lay 3 and not 3.5 or 4 when there was nothing but a 3 almost all the time - until now. how many times have people moaned at this site about getting "hooked" - when 99.99% of the time they have NO ONE but themselves to blame for not getting that half point in their favor. i can't tell you how many times i have gone to play a game - the line has been off by 1/2 point from what it was - and i simply won't play it because the line that was out there before - is not the line that is out there now. i compare it to buying a house. if the house you want is worth, say, $400,000 today and you look at it and think about buying it - but decide to wait a week - only to see the price go up to $425,000 - would you still buy that same house? i sense most WOULD NOT! but if you play colorado -3.5 when it was -3 that is what you are doing.

i hope this doesn't come off the wrong way - but i hope anyone/everyone who took colorado -3.5 or -4 loses by a hook or a point - meaning colorado wins by 3. this will DRIVE HOME the point of getting the best number possible for the game - and it being MUCH MORE IMPORTANT than the right side.

right now - if you want to play the colorado/utep game - to me - the ONLY side to take is utep +3.5/4. i don't care if the play wins or loses - the ONLY logical way to play the game is utep at this price. at -3 the buffs might have been the play - but not now.

i look forward to some of the replies i KNOW will come. should be interesting to see them - for i know many will say i am way off base here. the ones that do will also be the ones laying -3.5 or -4 and also the ones who in the long term are losers at gambling (OK - NOT everyone - i know a few will chime in saying they are winners - and they might be - but not many).

 

[whity]

This situation is like the night game also...
You could of gotten Oklahoma St. @ -2 when the news of T. Smith getting suspended....now it is up to -4 in some places...well see what happens

I see UTEP winning this one by 10 or more anyway....:drink:

GL -- WHITY

 

[HPark1]

fools is a bit harsh! Lot of people wait to gametime to make their picks regardless of line moves for or against them.


Would not be greatly concerned with a half point or 2 in college football anyways. Final score in college football rarely lands near the line, compared to other sports.


BTW - Buffs by 10!!!


gl

 

[muffinman]

Winky,

Couldn't agree more................

LET"S GO MINERS

 

[Boxslayer]

Great post.

But judging by ACEs stats (in the NFL at least, i dont know if your post is geared towards college), the points only matter in far less games this year. Picking the right side has been far more important.

I understand the concept of key numbers, but careful with your wording. You sound like your encouraging people to jump at a line immediately without research etc. Sometimes the line is there but the research took too much time and the line changed a half point.

Good insight though for others.

 

[stx]

You couldn't be more on target here, playing like this will kill you in the long run.

 

[Anonymous1]

i would buy the house cause next month it will be worth $475,000...

 

[Sportluver]

the line could have went to -2.5 for colorado too you know... nobody knows which way the line will move anyway

just like the iowa st game :banger:

 

[natenewton]

man you must never lose...where is your recent record posted...you have it all figured out...you chime in all the time about others mistakes..maybe you should post a record of your recent selections instead of trying to be everyones mom.

 

[FairWarning]

In this case, if you liked UTEP, you wait it out because you have to think the whole world will see that Colorado-3 and pound it. That is the beauty of the service play thread. When the majority are on a play that you like, you better put your bet in then because it will go against you. Really feel sorry for the people who would take Colorado with a local. They are the people getting screwed.

 

[TheGeneral+]

It is silly to ever play a bad number with a free line service. Good post Winky.

http://lines.therx.com/livelines/lines.html?sport=nfl&refresh=45

 

[Deb12]

Hey Guys..

Hope you don't mind my two cents but....as a standard rule of thumb I ALWAYS get down on the favorites that I am betting on EARLY in the week and usually wait until later in the week to wager on any doggies on my card.

Generally speaking the public wagers on favorites and overs.....thus it only makes sense to get on the favs early in the week because the closer it gets to game time the higher the line will go and especially on game day itself.

Dogs are just the opposite, its better to wait to wager on doggies later in the week and as close to game time as possible BECAUSE YOU WANT the public to drive the price up.

In my humble opinion in the end it all boils down to A.) doing your homework early in the week B.) getting your game plan together with regard to what and who you are going to wager on C.) line shopping for the best number and D.) not being afraid to pull the trigger.

take care and good luck!

Deb

 

[Salsantorre]

bad post wishing others lose. newton hit it right. this guy comes in like mr. know it all to point other's mistakes and doesn't post his plays. so you know which direction every line is going to move and get the optimum on every play you make? WOW!! you ARE the MAN!!!!

 

[FairWarning]

Deb gets it.

Sal, you must be new to the board because Winky posts a fair share of Big West plays with everyone. He is one of the sharpest on this board and I have learned a great deal from him. :nono5:

 

[Hitman26]

Winky:



Ok here is my problem with your statement. Lets say that someone is a solid capper and they think Colorado should be a 10 point favorite. Now is it foolish for them to not play Colorado because the line is now 4? According to their model there is still value with the Colorado play (granted there was much more with -3) but it is still value none the less and a positvie expectation from their point of view. Up untill last night the lean was on Utep and it looked to go to -2.5 or below. Not everyone has mutiple outs and they don't make plays until gamedays especially if they are dealing with locals.



Take the Saints game last week. The line opened N/O a pick and was quickly bet up to 3. Now are people fools if they took N/O -3? Should N/O backers have said "I cant bet this -3 because it opened at a pick so there is no value"? The line closed at 6.




What do you think about that
Hitman

 

[Salsantorre]

fair: that doesn't discount the fact that he comes off as a holier than thou guru. and I am not so new as to not be aware of this. i have sen many off these type posts from him

 

[natenewton]

good thing no one took colo. at 3- or 4...what fools they deserve to lose...i hope you choked on your +4 ticket for wishing others to lose jackass!

 

[jeffksu]

i couldn't agree with you more nate newton....who in hell does this wise ass no winning winky think he is ...wishing people to lose...FFFFFFF him and his wise ass remarks i hope he got 4.5 and got that shoved up his ass...as well....one time this college football season...i bet a 6 point two team teaser with colorado and kansas....and he started the same shiatt...even after it won he said it was foolish bet....well it paid 1,000 big ones and call it foolish or whatever...i'll bet it spends every bit as good as his chump change ass has got...what if the line had went to 2.5 which it probably should have with all the action on utep...but just wanted to wait till today...so what 3.5 paid just the same as 3.0....winky i hope they give you something for being smart and holding out for that 3.5 or 4....wishing people to lose....sorry f**kkkkker...jeffksu:WTF:

 

[WMU33]

To sum it up this guys a fool. You don't go jumping to the other side just cuz a line moves up a half point. With that logic your saying Colorado was only going to win by three and now that they have to cover the half point its a bad bet. Like most people here with a brain that replied a line only comes into play maybe 25% of the time. He talks about people losing in the long run betting like that...I guess with his formula all we have to do is wait until any line moves a half a point and we'll cash in...of course that would be against what he wants since he wishes people to lose....what an idiot...im out.

 

[winkyduck]

first off - i didn't play this game for i could make cases both for and against both teams. on talent alone - colorado was much better but motivation and intangibles were on utep - so i passed on the game


what i am trying to hammer home is that this line was released about 3 weeks ago - and sat at 3 for almost the entire time until about 24 hours before the game.

for those who liked colorado -3 you had THREE WEEKS to do so at -3 and to wait until 24 hours before the game to play it - and then play -3.5 or -4 is DUMB. did the pick win - YES! but as we all (should) know - just because you won a bet doesn't make it a good or smart play.

i'll give a perfect example

the day aftet t-giving 2003 - when the nhl still played, i was in vegas. the kings and ducks played that day. i liked the kings and went to play them at a sportsbook in town. i saw the kings were "pick +100" so i went to play them at that price. the book only had "kings +.5/-140" - THE WORST LINE in all of hockey betting. i asked if they had a non-puck line price and they said "no". i went to 1 more book - and got the same line. i was all set to skip betting the game when i found a book at the last second that had the kings "pick +100" so i played that line.

the final score of the game was a 2-2 tie. my "kings pick" play was a push - while if i had played them "+.5/-140" i would have won. but in this case - i would have made a TERRIBLE bet at a TERRIBLE price - and that wasn't something i wanted to do.

the fact i would have won the puckline play does NOT take away from the fact it would have been a TERRIBLE bet to make - which is why i didn't make it - and despite the fact the play i made on the M/L was a push while the puckline would have been a winner - the M/L play i made was the better bet and the ONLY way to play the game - for playing the puckline in the long run would be something that would cost me so much money in the long run i would be broke before too long.

getting back to the colorado/utep game - those who bet the game at -3.5/-4 won - go congrats. but the fact remains that over the LONG RUN playing games at -3.5/-4 when you could have played it at -3 for 3 weeks is a TERRIBLE play - and in the long run - will end up costing most players more money than they can fathom.

i know what responses i will get to this will say i am an idiot and i don't know what i am talking about and so on (stuff i hear all the time while reffing hoops) but realize i am only trying to help here - although it might not seem like it.

and for the record - i didn't wish for people who had colorado -3 to lose - for they made a SMART bet - for they got a smart price. the people who bet this game at -3.5/-4 are the ones who made the dumb bet - and even though it cashed - NEVER mistake a winning bet for a smart bet - the 2 are vastly different. the people who won with colorado -3.5/-4 made a DUMB bet - and won - and in the long run - NOT GOOD!