Anyone Give the Bengals a punchers chance SU?

[TheComputerGroup]

Yeah although GB backers really sweat that one. Browns cashed FH tickets there, so if I was betting Cinci this game (and as of now, I am not) I would consider FH +3 if you can get it, perhaps rather than the game line.

I just looked back to week 14, most books closed Gbay at -2.5, that's nuts! Went thru the key numbers of 3 & 4 & Gbay still covered.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I think Cinci has a chance of winning. But the line has come down to 3 or 3.5 and I feel I missed the window in which the value warrants a play. If the line creeps back up to 4.5 (and the ML with it) I will give it a harder look.

Anything is possible, but I think Lions win SU.

 

[SABRWinners]

Down to Lions -3 at several big books......this game reminds me of Gbay -6 vs Browns, dropped to -3, & Gbay won by 7

Green Bay needed an absolute miracle to cover in that game.

If that's your example, then you should be betting the Bengals.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Green Bay needed an absolute miracle to cover in that game.

If that's your example, then you should be betting the Bengals.

Lol, I have Lions ML in several parlays.

Gbay was in fg range & a fg made & they still cover -2.5, no miracle......I loved how they won by 7, way too many "experts" were calling for a Browns win & or cover in several forums.

I'm not gonna talk anyone off of the Bengals ledge, good luck whatever side you choose.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Green Bay needed an absolute miracle to cover in that game.

If that's your example, then you should be betting the Bengals.

Pats last week covering over Pitt was a miracle of the decade, if you want to talk miracles.

End of the day, a cover is a cover.

 

[ROCCO V]

Lions may not cover but no they're not losing in this spot. No. Absolutley not

 

[exploited17]

Lions may not cover but no they're not losing in this spot. No. Absolutley not

Not sure why you would say that. Lions are bad on the road...and in the cold. And they aren't that good. Bengals can give any decent team a run at home. Detroit is not the Pats..or top tier team.

 

[statman03]

Bad against non-conference anywhere......1/8 if line between 3 and 6.5.........Bengals off 2 losses at home are 6/0 SU and ATS

 

[Biz]

I took Cincinnati at +5.

The "team needs to win" angle is a gambler's fallacy. Over the last 10 years in games 15 and 16, teams with a winning record playing a team with a losing record are as follows:

40-49%: 19-31 (38%). Road Fav 3-5 (37.5%)
30-40%: 18-29 (38.3%), Road Fav 5-10 (33.3%)
0-29%: 34-33 (50.7%), RF 17-16 (51.5%)

Bengals 5-9 (35.7%). They have looked like crap for 2 weeks, lame duck coach, injuries, etc.. They should get Burfict and Kirkpatrick back, both listed as probable. Detroit has injury issues on the OL, dome team playing outdoors, a defense that isn't very good. Stafford is good but superstar HOF in a better situation is really stretching it. He is a prone to mistakes. Their defense is average at best.

Both teams have similar rushing numbers - awful. Detroit the better passing attack, and also a worse passing defense.

The key will be the health of the Detroit OL and the pressure the Bengals front can put on Stafford. Starting center Travis Swanson is out, RG TJ Lang is doubtful, RT Rick Wagner questionable. So looks like 2 starters are out, and a 3rd possibly out and if not will be less than 100%. Cincinnati 7th in the league with 38 sacks.

If Cincinnati shows up, and after 2 wretched performances I think they will at home, they have a solid shot at winning the game outright.

Its early but 36% bets/57% money on the Bengals so the betting markets as of now point to the Bengals also.

Its the final home game of the year, after 2 embarrassing performances. Can Detroit win by a TD?? Sure they can, but I would expect a much better performance from the Bengals on Sunday.

 

[ROCCO V]

I took Cincinnati at +5.

The "team needs to win" angle is a gambler's fallacy. Over the last 10 years in games 15 and 16, teams with a winning record playing a team with a losing record are as follows:

40-49%: 19-31 (38%). Road Fav 3-5 (37.5%)
30-40%: 18-29 (38.3%), Road Fav 5-10 (33.3%)
0-29%: 34-33 (50.7%), RF 17-16 (51.5%)

Bengals 5-9 (35.7%). They have looked like crap for 2 weeks, lame duck coach, injuries, etc.. They should get Burfict and Kirkpatrick back, both listed as probable. Detroit has injury issues on the OL, dome team playing outdoors, a defense that isn't very good. Stafford is good but superstar HOF in a better situation is really stretching it. He is a prone to mistakes. Their defense is average at best.

Both teams have similar rushing numbers - awful. Detroit the better passing attack, and also a worse passing defense.

The key will be the health of the Detroit OL and the pressure the Bengals front can put on Stafford. Starting center Travis Swanson is out, RG TJ Lang is doubtful, RT Rick Wagner questionable. So looks like 2 starters are out, and a 3rd possibly out and if not will be less than 100%. Cincinnati 7th in the league with 38 sacks.

If Cincinnati shows up, and after 2 wretched performances I think they will at home, they have a solid shot at winning the game outright.

Its early but 36% bets/57% money on the Bengals so the betting markets as of now point to the Bengals also.

Its the final home game of the year, after 2 embarrassing performances. Can Detroit win by a TD?? Sure they can, but I would expect a much better performance from the Bengals on Sunday.

Good analysis.

As a Dallas fan, Rocco needs this domino to fall!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good analysis.

As a Dallas fan, Rocco needs this domino to fall!

Dallas should win SU vs a debacle of a Seattle team that's falling like a house if cards. But then need to go into Philly & win on New Years Eve.......if Philly doesn't need to play their starters, then yes, Dallas can win.

But Dallas also needs Atlanta to lose final 2 games which is very possible, & Lions to lose one if last two games.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I took Cincinnati at +5.

The "team needs to win" angle is a gambler's fallacy. Over the last 10 years in games 15 and 16, teams with a winning record playing a team with a losing record are as follows:

40-49%: 19-31 (38%). Road Fav 3-5 (37.5%)
30-40%: 18-29 (38.3%), Road Fav 5-10 (33.3%)
0-29%: 34-33 (50.7%), RF 17-16 (51.5%)

Bengals 5-9 (35.7%). They have looked like crap for 2 weeks, lame duck coach, injuries, etc.. They should get Burfict and Kirkpatrick back, both listed as probable. Detroit has injury issues on the OL, dome team playing outdoors, a defense that isn't very good. Stafford is good but superstar HOF in a better situation is really stretching it. He is a prone to mistakes. Their defense is average at best.

Both teams have similar rushing numbers - awful. Detroit the better passing attack, and also a worse passing defense.

The key will be the health of the Detroit OL and the pressure the Bengals front can put on Stafford. Starting center Travis Swanson is out, RG TJ Lang is doubtful, RT Rick Wagner questionable. So looks like 2 starters are out, and a 3rd possibly out and if not will be less than 100%. Cincinnati 7th in the league with 38 sacks.

If Cincinnati shows up, and after 2 wretched performances I think they will at home, they have a solid shot at winning the game outright.

Its early but 36% bets/57% money on the Bengals so the betting markets as of now point to the Bengals also.

Its the final home game of the year, after 2 embarrassing performances. Can Detroit win by a TD?? Sure they can, but I would expect a much better performance from the Bengals on Sunday.

You & NFL Trends are making me rethink my Lions ML play in 4 parlays......I think I'm gonna take Cinci +3.5 in several parlays as well to cover my back.

 

[chonce]

Anything is possible, but I think Lions win SU.

Yeah I mean I haven't made a play. I do think the line is over adjusting. 3? I know some well-known sharps have given investment advice at Cinci + 4.5 or 5 which may have moved the needle a bit.

It is tempting to take DET - 3 or less. But the whole game is shady enough for me to stay away, I think.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yeah I mean I haven't made a play. I do think the line is over adjusting. 3? I know some well-known sharps have given investment advice at Cinci + 4.5 or 5 which may have moved the needle a bit.

It is tempting to take DET - 3 or less. But the whole game is shady enough for me to stay away, I think.

Yeah, very shady......if Lions lose this game, they're done, no playoffs. A Dallas win would make the Philly game next week very interesting.

 

[UnderSiege]

Like United stated above, Browns ML is a better choice than a Cinci ML.

Marvin Lewis coached Cinci for 17 years, that's too many years for a ciach not able to win a playoff game......he should have veen fired 5 years ago IMO.

Will his players play for him in Cinci's last home game? I doubt it, but I wouldn't take Lions -5 either. I think Lions win SU tho.

This is so irresponsible you should be ashamed for saying this. Browns Moneyline, have you lost your mind? Youre a real piece of work you know that?

Coming in here spouting some bullshit about the Browns moneyline. You know some people actually come here for useful information, take your browns moneyline and SHOVE IT!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

This is so irresponsible you should be ashamed for saying this. Browns Moneyline, have you lost your mind? Youre a real piece of work you know that?

Coming in here spouting some bullshit about the Browns moneyline. You know some people actually come here for useful information, take your browns moneyline and SHOVE IT!

Lmao....hahaha!!!!!! I bring out the best in people.....tell me how you really feel!

 

[DB21]

What’s up 151 Feva ? I completely agree and will likely be playing Cin and probably sprinkle a lil on the ML as well

good luck

 

[Biz]

This is so irresponsible you should be ashamed for saying this. Browns Moneyline, have you lost your mind? Youre a real piece of work you know that?

Coming in here spouting some bullshit about the Browns moneyline. You know some people actually come here for useful information, take your browns moneyline and SHOVE IT!

Actually Cleveland has a decent shot at winning that game. I played Cleveland at +7 and think its a solid spot for them.

What's the motivation for Chicago in this spot? They are in a divisional sandwich spot, playing Detroit last week and at Minnesota next week. Teams in this sandwich spot as a home fav off a loss are 20-50 over the last 10 years (since 2007).

The Bears are 4-10, hopelessly out of the playoffs, with a rookie QB that has been very inconsistent. They have a terrible offense but the defense isn't bad at all. Cleveland actually has a pretty decent defense, allowing 96.1 rush yards per game at 3.3/att. They actually have the top ranked rush defense going by yards per attempt. Chicago has a better defense, but its not better by a lot.

My question is how does an offense as inept as Chicago's cover a spread like this?? Sure, Kizer can do his Kizer thing. If you like Chicago laying this number, then you better expect help from the Browns' offense.

The weather calls for 24 degrees and snow with winds around 10mph. That doesn't sound like throwing weather to me. So if its tough to throw, and the game depends on the running game, wouldn't you rather take the best run defense in football (according to yards per attempt)??

I had the Bears as a Top Play at Cincinnati as a solid dog, and they trounced a lifeless Bengals team that day. They are fine as a dog, but do you really want this team laying close to a TD????

IMO Chicago is an awful play this week, in a bad spot. Divisional sandwich game, against a team desperate to get a win. You tell me who the more motivated team will be. Without question its the Browns.

Give me 6.5 or 7 all day in this spot, and don't be surprised if the Browns get the outright win.

 

[UnderSiege]

Actually Cleveland has a decent shot at winning that game. I played Cleveland at +7 and think its a solid spot for them.

What's the motivation for Chicago in this spot? They are in a divisional sandwich spot, playing Detroit last week and at Minnesota next week. Teams in this sandwich spot as a home fav off a loss are 20-50 over the last 10 years (since 2007).

The Bears are 4-10, hopelessly out of the playoffs, with a rookie QB that has been very inconsistent. They have a terrible offense but the defense isn't bad at all. Cleveland actually has a pretty decent defense, allowing 96.1 rush yards per game at 3.3/att. They actually have the top ranked rush defense going by yards per attempt. Chicago has a better defense, but its not better by a lot.

My question is how does an offense as inept as Chicago's cover a spread like this?? Sure, Kizer can do his Kizer thing. If you like Chicago laying this number, then you better expect help from the Browns' offense.

The weather calls for 24 degrees and snow with winds around 10mph. That doesn't sound like throwing weather to me. So if its tough to throw, and the game depends on the running game, wouldn't you rather take the best run defense in football (according to yards per attempt)??

I had the Bears as a Top Play at Cincinnati as a solid dog, and they trounced a lifeless Bengals team that day. They are fine as a dog, but do you really want this team laying close to a TD????

IMO Chicago is an awful play this week, in a bad spot. Divisional sandwich game, against a team desperate to get a win. You tell me who the more motivated team will be. Without question its the Browns.

Give me 6.5 or 7 all day in this spot, and don't be surprised if the Browns get the outright win.

I'll be back later today dumbass... I love pointing out when people say dumb shit. Let's see how that Browns moneyline works out for you. You wrote 5 paragraphs about how one of the worst teams in NFL history has a shot today on the road and in the snow LOL dumbass - like I said, I'll be back

 

[Biz]

I'll be back later today dumbass... I love pointing out when people say dumb shit. Let's see how that Browns moneyline works out for you. You wrote 5 paragraphs about how one of the worst teams in NFL history has a shot today on the road and in the snow LOL dumbass - like I said, I'll be back

I'll take my NFL record over yours clown.