Anyone else like Michigan +6.5 Wisconsin? Seems like a good spot

[Delta00]

I never watched the Michigan/Notre Dame game becuase I was at teh USC/tOSU game and the final score looks like Notre Dame gave a weak Michigan team a beat down. Now a top 10 Wisconsin rolls into an ailing Michigan as less than a TD favorite? huh?

Then I looked at the box score and drive chart for the UM game and I begna to see a different story. From what I gather, UM had 2 turnovers in the redzone after long sustained drives, 2 turnovers in their own redzone setting up 10-20 yard ND touchdown drives, and 1 fumble that was returned for a TD by ND. Obviously fumbling is part of the game and happens in a spread, but that is a whole 35 point swing off turnovers. The box score also seems to show that th Michigan offense is actually making progress. Threet seemed to have a pretty good game, as well as Sam McGuffie, leading Michigan to rack up 388 yards of offense.

I watched what I thought was a pathetic Wisconsin offense against an only average Fresno St defense last week only put up 13 points. I think I'd take Michigan's D over Fresno's but maybe that's just me. Similarly to the fresno/wisky game, both um/wisky are running teams that should provide for a real grind out low scoring game.

Add to that Wisconsin comes back from a full 4 quarters halfway across the country and Michigan is coming off a bye week where I'm sur Rich Rod had a lesson or two about turnovers.

I definately think this will be a large play for BigBookie this week and I think I'm going to take the Wolverines in a surprise home-dog upset over the Badgers.

 

[lewis]

I never watched the Michigan/Notre Dame game becuase I was at teh USC/tOSU game and the final score looks like Notre Dame gave a weak Michigan team a beat down. Now a top 10 Wisconsin rolls into an ailing Michigan as less than a TD favorite? huh?

Then I looked at the box score and drive chart for the UM game and I begna to see a different story. From what I gather, UM had 2 turnovers in the redzone after long sustained drives, 2 turnovers in their own redzone setting up 10-20 yard ND touchdown drives, and 1 fumble that was returned for a TD by ND. Obviously fumbling is part of the game and happens in a spread, but that is a whole 35 point swing off turnovers. The box score also seems to show that th Michigan offense is actually making progress. Threet seemed to have a pretty good game, as well as Sam McGuffie, leading Michigan to rack up 388 yards of offense.

I watched what I thought was a pathetic Wisconsin offense against an only average Fresno St defense last week only put up 13 points. I think I'd take Michigan's D over Fresno's but maybe that's just me. Similarly to the fresno/wisky game, both um/wisky are running teams that should provide for a real grind out low scoring game.

Add to that Wisconsin comes back from a full 4 quarters halfway across the country and Michigan is coming off a bye week where I'm sur Rich Rod had a lesson or two about turnovers.

I definately think this will be a large play for BigBookie this week and I think I'm going to take the Wolverines in a surprise home-dog upset over the Badgers.

im still looking at that one as well........Mich D should keep them in the game......the question is their offense going to do anything???? if they dont turn the ball over it should be a close one

 

[FairWarning]

Wisconsin was off last week. It will be an upset if they don't win by 14+. Didn't see Michigan yet? They are barely above the Notre Dame 2007 offense, seriously. Their defense may not give up 200 total yards.

 

[Delta00]

im still looking at that one as well........Mich D should keep them in the game......the question is their offense going to do anything???? if they dont turn the ball over it should be a close one

388 yards really surprised me, and 2 of their turnovers were interceptions by Threet who completed 0 passes to Michigan players. Hard for me to imagine he plays much in this next game.

At first I thought the ND defense is just bad, but that 388 yards is more than what Michigan State put up on Notre Dame.

I think the spread option could give Wisconsin some troubles and it could really come together for Michigan, especially after the bye week.

 

[DaShark]

I am a big Michigan fan and have watched all their games this year . Your right about the N.D. game , if not for T.O.'s Michigan probably wins but then again it is N.D. The Michigan O is horrible and I don't see them coming close to the number this week . I think their D will be on the field for the majority of the game and Hill will wear them down and run all over them when they are tired in the second half .

 

[FairWarning]

I'm not sure yardage stats will tell you much from the ND-Mich game. ND was playing the whole first half on a very short field. They started playing a soft defense with a big lead and made Michigan travel a long field. Also ND-Mich is a pretty big rivalry and TO's usually determine the outcome.

 

[FairWarning]

Da Shark - it should be a good under too.

 

[WVUCarter]

Agree on the under but Michigan is too "iffy" to be playing right now.

 

[hebrewnational]

Mcguffie Is Smart And A Great Runner. Go White Man Go

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Here's the problem I think with taking Mich. I thought their defense would be strong this year but they can't stop the run and give up big plays. I also thought Dick-Rod would have them looking like top 30 material but they still look lost. Mich. played a mediocre Utah team and got beat at home. They got a break and beat Miami-Ohio to get things back on track. Then played a horrible ND team and got owned. They are better than ND IMO but this Badger team is a legit top 10 team. Mich has not faced a defense like this yet and I expect the turnovers to continue.

 

[JohnnyMac]

Michigan is terrible. Bet accordingly.

 

[OKSOONER]

Yes I must agree bet accordingly take the POINTS!

 

[MattMillen+]

I thought their defense would be strong this year but they can't stop the run

Michigan is tied for 3rd in rush defense giving up 1.8 yards per rush.

 

[CrapGame]

im still looking at that one as well........Mich D should keep them in the game......the question is their offense going to do anything???? if they dont turn the ball over it should be a close one

I agree.
If Mich offense can't do anything by the 4th quarter the Mich Defense will be tired. Wis. could pull 14 pts in the 4th quarter.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Michigan is tied for 3rd in rush defense giving up 1.8 yards per rush.

Don't read too much into the numbers, Utah and ND both averaged over 4 yards per carry I believe. Again, wait until they play a team with a nfl size offensive line and three good running backs. ND has an awful O-line and were playing a true freshman at running back. The only thing thing I can say about Mich. is they may improve week to week and their QB made some good throws against ND. I can't help but think Wiscy should be giving up around 10.

 

[oatmealpancakes]

Big, big Michigan fan here. If I had to play this I would lay the -6.5 with Wisconsin. The under looks like a real good play as well.

I really, really like what I saw from Threet at ND; here is a redshirt frosh, starting his first road game on a big stage and he was very good (for a R-FR, 1st game on road) and great if you consider how he looked in the first two games. He couldn't hit an open man the first two games.

The defense has been a let down for Michigan fans, but they aren't bad - they just aren't great - and certainly not good enough to stay on the field as long as they have (due to a poor offense), new S&C or not.

One area of concern for Michigan is the opponents ability to run at them and gain consistent win (+yards) against a SR/upperclass and talented Dline. The linebackers are not very good - but they need to move JT to MLB and Ezeh to SLB to help out there.

I'd play the under and Wisconsin -6.5 a little less.

You're talking about a team that replaced 80% of it's O-line, new R-frosh QB, true frosh TB, freshman & new WR (except Matthews) and a brand new system.

Tough way to go right now.

Wisconsin's defense should be much better than anything they've seen and that's very concerning.

If Michigan wins this Rich Rod goes up a couple of notches in my book.

 

[Buckeyemac]

Steele

Phil Steele has Michigan +7 as his underdog play of the week; I hate to fade him.
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac

 

[vijaysinger]

If you could use Fresno as a measuring stick then I think Michigan, who should have a defense and crowd advantage over Fresno, should keep it close. Turnovers will probably determine who will cover spread.

 

[FrodoBaggins]

Nothing in the world can make you think Michigan is the play here.

 

[MajorGCG]

Im on Wiscy here too. I think Michigan's rush D stat is a little misrepresented and Wiscy can really run. They impressed me with their win at Fresno and Michigan's O is putrid. I'm laying the points.