Anybody catch a half-time middle on NJ/LAC ?

[Doug]

I started with under 180.5 for game. Bet amounts are all different. Largest bet is H2 over 87 -108, pounded it.

then bet un90 -110

then over 88.5 -107

I was looking for more, but ran out of time !

The way I figure it 176 wins em all. 173 or lower loses money. 174-180 are all good, over 181 loses money. I have sides too. NJ winning outright is very good, covering 9 is good, esp. if total lands 174-180.

It took me half of 3rd quarter to know who to root for !

 

[Doug]

need a slow Q4, too many points in Q#3. Rooting for Clips to run away, slow down game, no foul fest at end. DEFENSE ! 34 points in Q4 ?

 

[charleslanger]

good luck!!


i started w/ Over, no chance to look at halftime......

 

[Doug]

The best bet was over 87 -108, I hesitated or could have gotten -101. I need a few seconds to think. Consider the second half as a seperate event, it's tough to expose yourself to losing twice on same game, but it's another game the way I view it.

 

[charleslanger]

Yeah, I could never do what you just did-- i'll take the opposite side at halftime teased w/ 1 or 2 others, so that one payoff's enough to throw a profit, but hoping like you to middle.

What i'm thinking of trying standalone is: at halftime of any extreme low or high scoring contest, bet the opposite to occur 2nd half.. assuming the line posted shades closer to the first half score, rather than just the difference minus the original O/U...if the latter's the case, well then the opposite-- esp in Over situations....

 

[charleslanger]

OUCH!! my condolences.... I've been burned on so many unders, between close games fouling late like crazy, OT,,,, forget about it.....

 

[Doug]

Charles: Different ideas, I go against the grain a lot. This game was odd Pinny opened at over 87 -101, loved it, thought 4 seconds , refreshed then over 87 -108, Bet hard on that number. Pinny kept 87, but moved juice up to about -145, never moved number.

They wanted to trap the under guys with big + price, they didn't want no over action, in my view, other books hit 90, maybe better. Pinny is smart ! Other times they move the number, not the juice.

I had a ton on the H2, came out with small loss, because I hit the early line hard. That one moved !

There are different schools of thought, I think the old-style school of reverting to the norm is cliche. Lines are adjusted against you. I like big money dogs at half, overs in close games, but I select from that group.

I also like big-money line dogs for whole game, lines like +800, +1000, on teams like Charlotte, Atlanta, and Chicago,etc. They often lead at half-time, esp Charlotte.

I'll take'em +10 at the half and bet over. The Utah's and such narrow the gap usually, can't slow it down, and OT can result, virtually assuring over.

What I want to know is why a book can set a gameline, and a H1 line before tip-off, but not an H2 line, yet they set a quarter line at places like Hollywood and others.

Half 1 is fairly close to game line divided by 2. Why not offer H2 before tip-off ?

 

[charleslanger]

Doug:

Thanks for sharing your thoughts....

They wanted to trap the under guys with big + price, they didn't want no over action, in my view, other books hit 90, maybe better. Pinny is smart ! Other times they move the number, not the juice.

Maybe they wanted to avoid a triple middle: the game & both over & under second half.. LOL

I'll take'em +10 at the half and bet over. The Utah's and such narrow the gap usually, can't slow it down, and OT can result, virtually assuring over.

Would you parlay that second half side w/ the over, assuming it's allowed?


Half 1 is fairly close to game line divided by 2. Why not offer H2 before tip-off ?
I'd say because if the score is aberrantly low or high first half-- what do they do then? Move the number & get middled to death, don't move it & it's found money?

 

[Doug]

Charles: You make good points. I wouldn't look to parlay, mainly because I couldn't expect to get the best line on 2 seperate events, at the same book, and few books even grade them without screwing you, parlays are a bad bet, in general IMO, esp at half-time of an NBA game. Time is tight to bet.

SIA is one of the few books that doesn't screw a punter on parlay pay-offs, but a C out.

Your
arguements make sense ! I grade you as sharp, very good rebuttal !

I still have a few tricks up my sleeve, but you show good sense. My hat's off to you to challenge with a good arguement !

 

[Doug]

Really cool Charles: I have stuff that works, certainly basic strategiies, some are stale, need refreshment. Some are without fail, as in a scalp. Great post !

Doug

 

[charleslanger]

Much success to you, all the best!