Anything guys ? I'm just starting to look. One that looks like it will drop ( to me) is LAC +3.5 over Knicks. I'm not trying to pick a winner, I'm trying to predict a 2-point plus middle by betting early. I need to research this before a bet, but it looks like on the public will take, to me. I'm also looking at Lakers +3.
Well I took the 2 LA teams. I was right yesterday with Denver moving 2.5 points, closer to 3 with the + money, didn't middle, I only axe for the chance.
I put moderate amounts on predicted moves. LAL +3 +100, and LAC +3.5 -115 ( I could have got better, but not funded at right book). Lakers don't have to move much for a middle, one point and I'm OK. I think LAC drops on strength of recent huge win, and Knicks aren't highly regarded. Even Orlando -2 -110, and Knicks -1.5 -110, will provide a little better than a break even bet, but not by much. I want the big movers.
Not nearly as strong as Denver play yesterday. I like to take a position, and play for middle. If I'm wrong and line doesn't move, I can still win the side, and profit. I'm better at predicting NFL and MLB moves. I suggest not following these, obsevation is better, unless you agree with me. I may be stronger on other side by gametime, just want a middle opportunity.
No help from the big boys, they are busy tonight.
My purpose is to promote discussion of overnight picks, amoungst top guys like Frog, Zapster, and others. Therefore we might all get in before lines move.
I'll try this a few more times, and see if we can develop this idea. Maybe it flies, maybe it doesn't.
Does anyone support this, and wish to contribute ideas ?
I put moderate amounts on predicted moves. LAL +3 +100, and LAC +3.5 -115 ( I could have got better, but not funded at right book). Lakers don't have to move much for a middle, one point and I'm OK. I think LAC drops on strength of recent huge win, and Knicks aren't highly regarded. Even Orlando -2 -110, and Knicks -1.5 -110, will provide a little better than a break even bet, but not by much. I want the big movers.
Not nearly as strong as Denver play yesterday. I like to take a position, and play for middle. If I'm wrong and line doesn't move, I can still win the side, and profit. I'm better at predicting NFL and MLB moves. I suggest not following these, obsevation is better, unless you agree with me. I may be stronger on other side by gametime, just want a middle opportunity.
No help from the big boys, they are busy tonight.
My purpose is to promote discussion of overnight picks, amoungst top guys like Frog, Zapster, and others. Therefore we might all get in before lines move.
I'll try this a few more times, and see if we can develop this idea. Maybe it flies, maybe it doesn't.
Does anyone support this, and wish to contribute ideas ?
DougJ,
What you are doing is valuable. As my knowledge of Basketball is zero, I am limited in helping you. A couple of points that may be worth something are.
1) http://www.betbrain.com/ This site is fairly up to date. Often the number of books laying different spreads and prices can indicate the general feeling of where the number is going.
2) http://www.betfair.com/ The US Sports markets on here can be weak but some of the sharpest people around use them. We are 5 hours ahead of you so if anything is suspect over-night, someone will have either taken a price for decent money or have it on offer by about 10 am(GMT)
If I think of anything else I will let you know, Thanks.
What you are doing is valuable. As my knowledge of Basketball is zero, I am limited in helping you. A couple of points that may be worth something are.
1) http://www.betbrain.com/ This site is fairly up to date. Often the number of books laying different spreads and prices can indicate the general feeling of where the number is going.
2) http://www.betfair.com/ The US Sports markets on here can be weak but some of the sharpest people around use them. We are 5 hours ahead of you so if anything is suspect over-night, someone will have either taken a price for decent money or have it on offer by about 10 am(GMT)
If I think of anything else I will let you know, Thanks.
Winbet: I know of both of these sites. Betfair doesn't take US clients ( to my knowledge). Betbrain offers stuff that may move preventing a scalp, and uses non-USA friendly books.
Most here are from USA. Thanks for effort to reply, but most USA guys can't use these books, at least some of them. We mostly bet in CR, and Carribean, Canada,with maybe some England books, but many not available.
Thanks,
Doug
Most here are from USA. Thanks for effort to reply, but most USA guys can't use these books, at least some of them. We mostly bet in CR, and Carribean, Canada,with maybe some England books, but many not available.
Thanks,
Doug
Winbet: I've got one for you, since you seem European. Want to bet Golf. This guy is awesome.
www.tourtips.com
I know little of Golf, but can't use many of these books,
www.tourtips.com
I know little of Golf, but can't use many of these books,
Thanks for the tip Doug. I have a mate who works for Betfair and he posted me this answer.<DIR>they are barred...we have to close them down if they sneak past....having said that all they have to do is route thru non US ISP or ring us on mobile. actually think there is a business there.........puttin on for yanks...just need to satisfy them that there deposits are safe
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WB: Not for me. I know of Americans ( I avoid this term, as Canadians, Mexicans, etc., are no less American than USA citizens) that do this. I don't understand why some Brit books are OK, but others aren't. Whatever !
I don't want to challenge any boundaries. If they won't accept me as USA, I'll pass.
Did you check out Stanley at tourtips ?
I don't want to challenge any boundaries. If they won't accept me as USA, I'll pass.
Did you check out Stanley at tourtips ?
Like the idea of middles, however, I believe the focus for middles should be more on totals then sides. The reason for this is that totals are prone to move much more then sides and it's not uncommmon to get a 4 or 5 point middle as oppose to a 1½ or 2 point middle on sides.
Right now, I trust that the Celtics total will rise from 200½ but I have no basis for this suggestion, just experience so don't take it to the bank.
I will, however, pay closer attention to totals to see if I can get a strong feel for which way the line will move, that's providing that there are more people interested in this thread.
Sherwood
Right now, I trust that the Celtics total will rise from 200½ but I have no basis for this suggestion, just experience so don't take it to the bank.
I will, however, pay closer attention to totals to see if I can get a strong feel for which way the line will move, that's providing that there are more people interested in this thread.
Sherwood
DougJ,
If you are looking to middle, I would focus on games that are closer to an opening line of 7. Seven is the most common winning margin, with 5 being 2nd most. 2 and 3 point winning margins happen quite a bit less often, so playing middles around these numbers is far less profitable.
If you are looking to middle, I would focus on games that are closer to an opening line of 7. Seven is the most common winning margin, with 5 being 2nd most. 2 and 3 point winning margins happen quite a bit less often, so playing middles around these numbers is far less profitable.
The MD Kid said:
MD: Point taken. I'm taking the ones I feel comfortable will move for now. So far so good. Lakers moved nicely. I've got +3 +100, and bought back Orl -.5 -110 for more.
I'm holding onto LAC +3.5 -115. I can get -1.5 -110, but not taking it. Maybe hedge at halftime if possible. I think LAC is right side.
Sherwood: I agree totals are more prone to movement, but don't feel as comfortable with them, in predicting movement.
Perhaps when Zapster gets back from Vegas, he will get into this. He seems to be good with totals, maybe Tate also. I want to make this a group project.
I didn't see this but will pitch in from time to time. A few days back I pointed out in a new thread to take a team -6 a day ahead of time, the game moved to 8 I believe and won easily, I'm not the best but fairly accurate when I see one. I'm just not here every day to participate.
Early this afternoon I started a thread in fact to grab Milwaukee on Saturday at -6, not sure if it's moved yet but I think it will. If not I like the play at -6 anyway. Good idea, keep it up if you want, takes a while to get something new going but others will pitch in if you do. Don't limit yourself to just sides or just totals, let people contribute whatever they feel most comfortable on. Good luck.
Early this afternoon I started a thread in fact to grab Milwaukee on Saturday at -6, not sure if it's moved yet but I think it will. If not I like the play at -6 anyway. Good idea, keep it up if you want, takes a while to get something new going but others will pitch in if you do. Don't limit yourself to just sides or just totals, let people contribute whatever they feel most comfortable on. Good luck.
