Any interesting bowl systems?

[rivercitybirdie]

Remember some good threads in past years...

i used to be in annual bowl pool (pick vs spread)

I did well as I know most informed bettors do in bowl season

Things I remember I played:

Teams that played out of their mind during regular season regress fast with a month off

for young teams it's almost a whole new season I.e. good

Name teams and/or underachieving teams that expected to have great season and didn't are fades..especially mid-upper big name programs like M-F

more or less bet on southeastern USA teamscfl any size

MACwasfade.... Might have changed

 

[GoSooners]

Although I wouldn't really call it a system, the bowl running dogs have been the best tried and true way to find winners in these bowls. The running dogs were especially strong last year going 13-2 (86.7%) http://www.saturdayedge.com/21687/bowl-running-dogs-go-15-3-su-16-2-ats/ There's no way your going to get that every year. In fact last year was pretty much an aberration since it was barely over a 50% winning system a couple years prior to 2014. But it's also had some very good years for us in the last 10+ years that we've been doing it.. Last year I felt a good bowl season was coming for the running dogs based on the sheer number of teams with the better rushing games and/or defense getting points with near tossup spreads. A better running game AND defense is usually a strong play for the dogs. We also use this during the season, and it's works very well. If we get a team who is the dog, and they have the better running game, defense and are playing at home, we call that the trifecta. But we don't get many of those games. I'm still putting my numbers together on this season's bowls, along with my website partner Pezgordo, who is a numbers expert with these running dogs.. But after a quick glance I doubt we'll have 15 running dogs like we had last year, even with the added bowls. You still can't bet them blindly. You have to pick your spots with these teams because of all of the outside factors that go into these bowls like suspensions, injuries, coaching changes, motivation etc.

 

[sdf]

play under the total in December (usually lower tier) bowl games that featured a losing Championship game team. even better if they are a favorite.

 

[sendacash]

Although I wouldn't really call it a system, the bowl running dogs have been the best tried and true way to find winners in these bowls. The running dogs were especially strong last year going 13-2 (86.7%) http://www.saturdayedge.com/21687/bowl-running-dogs-go-15-3-su-16-2-ats/ There's no way your going to get that every year. In fact last year was pretty much an aberration since it was barely over a 50% winning system a couple years prior to 2014. But it's also had some very good years for us in the last 10+ years that we've been doing it.. Last year I felt a good bowl season was coming for the running dogs based on the sheer number of teams with the better rushing games and/or defense getting points with near tossup spreads. A better running game AND defense is usually a strong play for the dogs. We also use this during the season, and it's works very well. If we get a team who is the dog, and they have the better running game, defense and are playing at home, we call that the trifecta. But we don't get many of those games. I'm still putting my numbers together on this season's bowls, along with my website partner Pezgordo, who is a numbers expert with these running dogs.. But after a quick glance I doubt we'll have 15 running dogs like we had last year, even with the added bowls. You still can't bet them blindly. You have to pick your spots with these teams because of all of the outside factors that go into these bowls like suspensions, injuries, coaching changes, motivation etc.

GS, are you trying to talk me off playing Cal with this running dog theory? Talk about a contrast in styles, you have the obvious running dog aspect of Air Force's triple option. But, you also have the quick strike scoring ability via Cal's passing offense. What if Cal were to go up a couple scores and force AF to take to the air? When considering a 'running dog' do you factor in the quality of the favorites rushing defense? and what about the quality of the opponents rush defense that the running dog has played thus far?

 

[russ1945]

GS, are you trying to talk me off playing Cal with this running dog theory? Talk about a contrast in styles, you have the obvious running dog aspect of Air Force's triple option. But, you also have the quick strike scoring ability via Cal's passing offense. What if Cal were to go up a couple scores and force AF to take to the air? When considering a 'running dog' do you factor in the quality of the favorites rushing defense? and what about the quality of the opponents rush defense that the running dog has played thus far?

And Cal has all this extra time to prepare to defend the option etc. That has to be taken into consideration.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Gosooners, thx.. Makes a lot of sense...

My thoughts as to your theory,


Basically big time lag to bowl game... Running game = simple. Passing = timing and complex...so much distraction (good distraction I think) with all but biggest bowls that they verge on college equivalent of exhibition game... So keep it simple wins??

 

[GoSooners]

GS, are you trying to talk me off playing Cal with this running dog theory? Talk about a contrast in styles, you have the obvious running dog aspect of Air Force's triple option. But, you also have the quick strike scoring ability via Cal's passing offense. What if Cal were to go up a couple scores and force AF to take to the air? When considering a 'running dog' do you factor in the quality of the favorites rushing defense? and what about the quality of the opponents rush defense that the running dog has played thus far?

If it was this easy we would all be rich. But you really can't treat NASCAR offenses like Cal or Texas Tech etc. the same as other more conventional teams since their short passes are basically their run plays. Like Russ said, the extra time to prepare for the option is somewhat of an advantage in these bowl games. Just remember there are no hard and fast rules to capping these option teams. Navy beat SDST in their bowl game last year. And nobody knows how to play the option better than Rocky Long and SDST. And Ga Tech knocked off a good Miss St team last year. The thing you have to be careful of is when they make these option teams too big of a dog in these games. With this 7 point line your kind of playing with fire.

 

[FairWarning]

The nice thing about the service academies is you know they will be ready to play in these smaller bowls. Hard telling what the mindset of power conference teams are, taking a step down in class.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I can't see how Florida St shows up with any enthusiasm to play Houston......Houston will love to best Flat ST.......then again, does Flat St want to be on ESPN for losing to Houston?

 

[sendacash]

Although I wouldn't really call it a system, the bowl running dogs have been the best tried and true way to find winners in these bowls. The running dogs were especially strong last year going 13-2 (86.7%) http://www.saturdayedge.com/21687/bowl-running-dogs-go-15-3-su-16-2-ats/ There's no way your going to get that every year. In fact last year was pretty much an aberration since it was barely over a 50% winning system a couple years prior to 2014. But it's also had some very good years for us in the last 10+ years that we've been doing it.. Last year I felt a good bowl season was coming for the running dogs based on the sheer number of teams with the better rushing games and/or defense getting points with near tossup spreads. A better running game AND defense is usually a strong play for the dogs. We also use this during the season, and it's works very well. If we get a team who is the dog, and they have the better running game, defense and are playing at home, we call that the trifecta. But we don't get many of those games. I'm still putting my numbers together on this season's bowls, along with my website partner Pezgordo, who is a numbers expert with these running dogs.. But after a quick glance I doubt we'll have 15 running dogs like we had last year, even with the added bowls. You still can't bet them blindly. You have to pick your spots with these teams because of all of the outside factors that go into these bowls like suspensions, injuries, coaching changes, motivation etc.

I made the line Cal -11.5 for what its worth. Seems like they have already factored in a discount?

 

[nickbean]

Who had the first half UNDER system? I tHink it was a chase. I believe it did fairly well

 

[groundhog11]

Who had the first half UNDER system? I tHink it was a chase. I believe it did fairly well

Black mamba played a 1st half chase..

 

[3pointdog]

Who had the first half UNDER system? I tHink it was a chase. I believe it did fairly well

extreamly well if I remember too...

 

[rolltide]

Who had the first half UNDER system? I tHink it was a chase. I believe it did fairly well

last year lost something like 22u incl 16u in final 4-5 days of bowls.... very easy to find the thread

if you want to fire it up, good luck....very simple:

just risk 1.1u to win 1u on first half under and, if that wins, keep your 1u. If it loses (1h goes over the total) then place 2.31u to win 2.10u on second half under. if 2H goes under you won 1u on the game, if it goes over you lost 3.41 on the game.

if you have a discount bookie (-105 or -107 odds) then adjust accordingly

 

[rolltide]

I can't see how Florida St shows up with any enthusiasm to play Houston......Houston will love to best Flat ST.......then again, does Flat St want to be on ESPN for losing to Houston?

yeah, tough coaching job for jimbo. played in semifinal last year and now playing at noon on new year's eve vs, ahemm, houston.

 

[quantumleap]

Although I wouldn't really call it a system, the bowl running dogs have been the best tried and true way to find winners in these bowls. The running dogs were especially strong last year going 13-2 (86.7%) http://www.saturdayedge.com/21687/bowl-running-dogs-go-15-3-su-16-2-ats/ There's no way your going to get that every year. In fact last year was pretty much an aberration since it was barely over a 50% winning system a couple years prior to 2014. But it's also had some very good years for us in the last 10+ years that we've been doing it.. Last year I felt a good bowl season was coming for the running dogs based on the sheer number of teams with the better rushing games and/or defense getting points with near tossup spreads. A better running game AND defense is usually a strong play for the dogs. We also use this during the season, and it's works very well. If we get a team who is the dog, and they have the better running game, defense and are playing at home, we call that the trifecta. But we don't get many of those games. I'm still putting my numbers together on this season's bowls, along with my website partner Pezgordo, who is a numbers expert with these running dogs.. But after a quick glance I doubt we'll have 15 running dogs like we had last year, even with the added bowls. You still can't bet them blindly. You have to pick your spots with these teams because of all of the outside factors that go into these bowls like suspensions, injuries, coaching changes, motivation etc.

Thanks much for posting this.

 

[quantumleap]

The nice thing about the service academies is you know they will be ready to play in these smaller bowls. Hard telling what the mindset of power conference teams are, taking a step down in class.

I remember a few years back, a service academy was playing in Hawaii (I think it was Navy). They had all received their military assignments the day before so they were just playing to not get hurt. Hawaii covered the spread easily.

 

[billbeater]

Good stuff Gents. There is an Older bowl tip thread I will try to post in a minute

 

[gskiman]

Although I wouldn't really call it a system, the bowl running dogs have been the best tried and true way to find winners in these bowls. The running dogs were especially strong last year going 13-2 (86.7%) http://www.saturdayedge.com/21687/bowl-running-dogs-go-15-3-su-16-2-ats/ There's no way your going to get that every year. In fact last year was pretty much an aberration since it was barely over a 50% winning system a couple years prior to 2014. But it's also had some very good years for us in the last 10+ years that we've been doing it.. Last year I felt a good bowl season was coming for the running dogs based on the sheer number of teams with the better rushing games and/or defense getting points with near tossup spreads. A better running game AND defense is usually a strong play for the dogs. We also use this during the season, and it's works very well. If we get a team who is the dog, and they have the better running game, defense and are playing at home, we call that the trifecta. But we don't get many of those games. I'm still putting my numbers together on this season's bowls, along with my website partner Pezgordo, who is a numbers expert with these running dogs.. But after a quick glance I doubt we'll have 15 running dogs like we had last year, even with the added bowls. You still can't bet them blindly. You have to pick your spots with these teams because of all of the outside factors that go into these bowls like suspensions, injuries, coaching changes, motivation etc.

Looking at the GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile, Alabama 12/23 as an example:
Rushing Offense:
Georgia Southern, the #1 ranked rushing team, 355yds/game, and 6.5 yds/a
Bowling Green, the #35 ranked rushing team, 185 yds/game, and 4.7 yds/a
Defense against the rush:
Georgia Southern, 25th ranked allows 133 yds/game rushing at 3.9 yds/a
Bowling Green, 61st ranked allows 162 yds/game at 4yds/a
Overall Defense:
Georgia Southern, 21st ranked allows 337 total yds/game
Bowling Green, 98th ranked allows 409 total yds/game
Summary:
Bowling Green is a 7.5 favorite.
Based on the data Georgia Southern would be a Live Dog, yes?

 

[MIKEtheREF]

Bet underdogs who wanna be there. Fade teams who are favored and likely disappointed they have to play some garbage team.