oh hey super fade obsessive broken guy...
winner today on sinner @+650 posted in your Open thread that pretty much got ignored... like most of your posts.
cashed $1370.00
No/No... Vegas is spot on the NFL average per game is 11.. KC flagged 96 times and SF 101 this year estimate maybe 6-7 each. Good reasoning Under is money in the bank. I'd say more in 4th quarter than the 1st 3 combined usually??
I don't know about Q4 but pretty sure championship games saw just one Q1 penalty (Balt) in the first quarter.
Nerves may be a little different as it's the SB, a false start maybe (Taylor a DEFINITE possibility for that.)
I love the penalty prop because as I've said, you have action on every play. I missed out on the split-at-worst-case I was banking on last week thanks to a couple of non-calls in the early game (especially the missed pass interference call on KC right before Balt kicked the FG.) I had 11', it landed on 11. My SF play never had a chance, both teams came in at approx. 50% of their avg penalties per game.
Andy's guys are usually well-disciplined so I don't like using Overs for this prop with the Chiefs.
They had just 3 vs Phil last year (Phil had 6; combined for 1' < than this year's #) but a freakish 11 vs TB in 2020.
Vs SF in 2019 they only had 4 (SF had 5, again 1' < this year's #.)
Under seems to be the way to go in this one, but Overs are much more fun to root for while watching, and for me the SB is about fun, with a few props in play. Good luck whichever way you decide to go on this prop and others.
Nerves may be a little different as it's the SB, a false start maybe (Taylor a DEFINITE possibility for that.)
I love the penalty prop because as I've said, you have action on every play. I missed out on the split-at-worst-case I was banking on last week thanks to a couple of non-calls in the early game (especially the missed pass interference call on KC right before Balt kicked the FG.) I had 11', it landed on 11. My SF play never had a chance, both teams came in at approx. 50% of their avg penalties per game.
Andy's guys are usually well-disciplined so I don't like using Overs for this prop with the Chiefs.
They had just 3 vs Phil last year (Phil had 6; combined for 1' < than this year's #) but a freakish 11 vs TB in 2020.
Vs SF in 2019 they only had 4 (SF had 5, again 1' < this year's #.)
Under seems to be the way to go in this one, but Overs are much more fun to root for while watching, and for me the SB is about fun, with a few props in play. Good luck whichever way you decide to go on this prop and others.
That's because he went against the Original Golden boy!
It seems they don't have the prop bet anymore of which team will have more penalties? Just total penalties by both teams. They used to have more penalties and more yards by which team, but it was too easy with Brady and now Mahomes. Closest "LOCK" you'll ever see, which is probably why they don't book that prop anymore.
I just took Over 10' penalties for small $/action/fun. I got +110 (BM), I see it as high as -125 at some houses (Heritage.)
Also took # of players to throw a pass Over 1', looking for Andy to put in a trick play using someone other than Mahomes to toss a pass, or either QB to get TKO'd and have to sit out a few plays (nothing serious obviously, I'm not a sadist, it's just a bet after all.)
I also took shortest TD Under 1' -139, looking for Pacheco or McCaffrey to bring that one home (a pass interference or holding penalty in the end zone wouldn't hurt, puts me at the one yard line with a chance to hit this prop and add to my Over 10' prop too.)
And I took the # of Chefs ("Who are the Chefs?? Great googly-mooglie!") to have a reception, Over 7'.
Here are some stats on targets/receivers to catch a pass:
Vs Bal, 8/7; vs Buf 8/7; vs Mia 9/8
LY's SB 9/7; SB vs TB 8/8
Small snapshot of recent/similar games, and only 2 of the 5 hit >7' I need here, but all games had the # of targets I need, and like I said, what the hell, these prop bets aren't investment plays, small $, just having some fun with games within the game, keeping track of the #'s I need to get a W.
Good luck with your props on Sunday.
Also took # of players to throw a pass Over 1', looking for Andy to put in a trick play using someone other than Mahomes to toss a pass, or either QB to get TKO'd and have to sit out a few plays (nothing serious obviously, I'm not a sadist, it's just a bet after all.)
I also took shortest TD Under 1' -139, looking for Pacheco or McCaffrey to bring that one home (a pass interference or holding penalty in the end zone wouldn't hurt, puts me at the one yard line with a chance to hit this prop and add to my Over 10' prop too.)
And I took the # of Chefs ("Who are the Chefs?? Great googly-mooglie!") to have a reception, Over 7'.
Here are some stats on targets/receivers to catch a pass:
Vs Bal, 8/7; vs Buf 8/7; vs Mia 9/8
LY's SB 9/7; SB vs TB 8/8
Small snapshot of recent/similar games, and only 2 of the 5 hit >7' I need here, but all games had the # of targets I need, and like I said, what the hell, these prop bets aren't investment plays, small $, just having some fun with games within the game, keeping track of the #'s I need to get a W.
Good luck with your props on Sunday.
