Anti-Public bet: Wash +5.5 (YTD: 2-1)

[quantumleap]

I am betting against public teams in high profile games. I won by fading Notre Dame and Oakland and lost on USC. Philly also fit in this situation as well as Oakland last week but I didn't post them so I won't take credit for them.

 

[quantumleap]

Ytd: 3-1.

 

[Tulsa]

quantumleap, good job. I got toasted. Good job. tulsa (mud)

 

[HPark1]

Public was heavily on KC sunday night, USC/Arkansas game drew very close to equal action. These were with over 10000 bets... :think2:

 

[quantumleap]

Public was heavily on KC sunday night, USC/Arkansas game drew very close to equal action. These were with over 10000 bets... :think2:

Good question HPark1. When I say "public" I'm not referring to amount bet on a team. I'm talking about a team that is a public favorite. Teams like the Yankees, Lakers, USC, Notre Dame, Oakland, etc.

 

[JAKEMZ]

Do you really know what your writing about?

Or is it what I think it is, a bunch of public and non-public B.S.

Why don't you people get some brains, do some reading, really
watch the games and form some sort of real opinion on these
games, instead of wasting your time trying to figure out all this
stupid public and non-public B.S. You guys might want to start
studying astrology, too! What the heck it can't hurt!

 

[juice]

Jakemz - you are adding some great analysis there. :finger:

 

[JAKEMZ]

The stars are aligned for the favorites

in week 3
or was that the planets
or was that just non-public opinion
I'm going with the republic opinion myself

 

[quantumleap]

Jakemz:

Let's consider if the linemakers didn't take this into consideration. They would then put up a line that wouldn't take advantage of trying to get more people on the wrong side of a line. A smart linemaker would try to do that rather than try to get half on one side and half on another especially in games that have a high volume of betting.

Now quit being so serious and let us have our fun trying out different things. That's half the fun of betting.

 

[JAKEMZ]

I've worked in the business

I've lived and worked in the business here in Las Vegas and
off-shore for 15 years now and the "men" setting the #'s could
care less about public opinion, outside of one game maybe
(Superbowl), due to the volume of wagering on that event being
enormous. The opinions they care about are the opinions of the
big, heavy, bettors that they are currently booking that they
can hopfully make them go one direction or another that favors
their operation.
Example if your biggest players are Dog players for the most part,
the man would fade towards keeping the numbers lower, in favor
of the favorites bettors, but not fading it too much to lose their
(customers) business. Or if the book is getting alot of play on the
favorites, just not moving the #'s knowing that eventually it will
be even out with a few big plays late with big dog action from
their (bookie) bigger players that generally play dogs. It's just
a matter of knowing your bigger players and if you respect their
plays and respect their money management skills. Bookies I have
worked for we're very keen on picking up on wether they should
respect someone or not!

 

[quantumleap]

I've lived and worked in the business here in Las Vegas and
off-shore for 15 years now and the "men" setting the #'s could
care less about public opinion, outside of one game maybe
(Superbowl), due to the volume of wagering on that event being
enormous. The opinions they care about are the opinions of the
big, heavy, bettors that they are currently booking that they
can hopfully make them go one direction or another that favors
their operation.
Example if your biggest players are Dog players for the most part,
the man would fade towards keeping the numbers lower, in favor
of the favorites bettors, but not fading it too much to lose their
(customers) business. Or if the book is getting alot of play on the
favorites, just not moving the #'s knowing that eventually it will
be even out with a few big plays late with big dog action from
their (bookie) bigger players that generally play dogs. It's just
a matter of knowing your bigger players and if you respect their
plays and respect their money management skills. Bookies I have
worked for we're very keen on picking up on wether they should
respect someone or not!

Good post Jake. I agree about the big players.

However, when the line is first hung the linesmakers don't know which way the big players will bet. This is why I believe the original line is set to get the public trapped on the wrong side. They do have a good idea of the popular teams and can take into consideration that a lot of money will always flow on these teams.

Thanks for bringing up your thoughts instead of just bashing.

 

[JAKEMZ]

In my experiences of accepting wagers

generalizing the industry as a whole

the big/favorite money comes in early and then
the small/favorite starts coming in and then
the big/dog money comes in late and at the end
and that's the money that generally gets the money

so the key is to know and understand that, that big/dog late
action will be coming towards the end and not get scared by
early big and small favorite action that you move the # in a
way that favors that big/late money.

am I making sense
sometimes I really wonder
at least I think I know what I talking about, if no one else does I
don't blame you at all.

p.s. if you see a # open high, even if the money comes in on that
favorite they might still lower the # after that money because they
know the big/dog action will be coming in sooner or later. Big/dog
players don't usually play their games early in the week, they tend
to be very patient and wait for their #'s late, recognizing that they
are strong players and they will probably have the right side regardless
of the #'s by gametime.

 

[quantumleap]

Makes sense to me jakemz. I don't know all the answers. That's why I test these little theories of mine. On the other hand, people like you give their 2 cents worth and I learn something.

Have you noticed that USC is back up to 21.5. Any ideas on that line change?

Good luck!