I would play the under in a HUGE way for various reasons:
1) You are taking back +150 on the under.
2) If this went over, it would absolutely shatter any and all records for opening weekends in the month of April.
3) Box office money is WAY, WAY, WAY down this year, thus lending credence to the fact that, no matter how big a hit, it won't make 45 million. I would bet this comes in right around 35 to 40 mil.
JP
1) You are taking back +150 on the under.
2) If this went over, it would absolutely shatter any and all records for opening weekends in the month of April.
3) Box office money is WAY, WAY, WAY down this year, thus lending credence to the fact that, no matter how big a hit, it won't make 45 million. I would bet this comes in right around 35 to 40 mil.
JP
I tend to agree w/ you jcambert. I believe the record for April opening is last year's scorpion king. Anger Management does have a good chance to break it and I think it will but I don't like the line. I think it's too close to call. I'm staying away for this week. GL in which ever side you choose.
SOG
SOG
Well, I already placed the bet so there's no turning back now. My opinion is there's going to be a new record set for April. Some people are sick of watching tanks and shit being blown up and want to go see a comedy, and I think you'll see a lot of families packing the 3,500+ theaters that this flick is going to be shown in... It'll be close, I think, but the cross-over pairing of Nicholson and Sandler coupled with the decent hype-machine pushing this product will be enough to push it into mega-hit territory... Although I think one of the best gauges of detrmining a movie's potential is by just watching the trailer and seeing if it sucks or not. If the audience isn't sold on the trailer, they often won't go see the movie... This one's got a decent trailer. Not the best, but it looks like it's going to be a funny movie. Normally I would say under, but I'm betting that there's a strong demand for another comedic film out there. I didn't see Bringing Down the House, but I heard it was weak. And that one did surprisingly well...
Olympic has the over at -120, under is -110.
Olympic has the over at -120, under is -110.
Actually, at this point, it has the Over at -140 and the Under at +110. You can get the under at Wsex at +150.
And, the RECORD for highest opening weekend in April history is the Scorpion King, with $36.1 million. You are saying that, in a year where moviegoing is down, you think that there is a 59% or greater chance that this record will be broken by $10 million dollars? I don't think so. Not a good bet, percentage wise...even if it does happen.
JP
And, the RECORD for highest opening weekend in April history is the Scorpion King, with $36.1 million. You are saying that, in a year where moviegoing is down, you think that there is a 59% or greater chance that this record will be broken by $10 million dollars? I don't think so. Not a good bet, percentage wise...even if it does happen.
JP
Um, Hannibal broke the Febuary record by more than 20 million. Before it made 58 million the record was 33.5. I'm not saying this movie has the same potential as Hannibal, but I won't be surprised to see it hit 46.5. Nor will I cough up my cereal if it ends up being 42. Monthly box office records are somewhat irrelevant if the movie has hit potential. And I bet at Olympic, those are the lines I was refering to, it says right there in my post. And Scorpion King was wack as ****, if this movie doesn't make more than that piece of shit than I'll eat my own crap myself. And why be afraid of the odds when betting on movie grosses, it's not like you have to worry about a team choking, injuries, bad ref calls, turnovers, etc. I'm taking a risk mostly because so far I haven't lost.
"Actually, at this point, it has the Over at -140 and the Under at +110. You can get the under at Wsex at +150."
Oh, I get it, I'm supposed to be psychic and tell you what the lines are going to be the next morning. Gotcha.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-11-03 at 03:33 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-11-03 at 04:20 PM.]
"Actually, at this point, it has the Over at -140 and the Under at +110. You can get the under at Wsex at +150."
Oh, I get it, I'm supposed to be psychic and tell you what the lines are going to be the next morning. Gotcha.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-11-03 at 03:33 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-11-03 at 04:20 PM.]
You gave me the example of Hannibal which is irrelevant for VARIOUS reasons. First off, as stated at least three separate times in my other posts, THIS IS A YEAR WHERE MOVIEGOING IN GENERAL IS DOWN!!!!! There is no reason that a movie getting awful reviews, that doesn't look the least bit interesting (in my opinion), should shatter the box office record for the month by more than $10 million dollars.
Secondly, you SHOULD worry about odds, because, if you ARE going to bet on a movie shattering a previous record, the way you are betting, then you should be taking back money, not laying any, because, frankly, the odds are against you.
Thirdly, take a look at the opinions of the "experts" and you will see that not a SINGLE ONE OF THEM, is predicting that this movie will make more than $46 million dollars.
You are on the wrong side in terms of value on this one...trust me...even if you DO win.
JP
Secondly, you SHOULD worry about odds, because, if you ARE going to bet on a movie shattering a previous record, the way you are betting, then you should be taking back money, not laying any, because, frankly, the odds are against you.
Thirdly, take a look at the opinions of the "experts" and you will see that not a SINGLE ONE OF THEM, is predicting that this movie will make more than $46 million dollars.
You are on the wrong side in terms of value on this one...trust me...even if you DO win.
JP
I think 46 is a pretty sharp number, that's just my opinion. I'm merely betting that it's gonna be a little more than that. And I've been betting against the "experts" on occasion, and have been winning. They thought Bringing Down the House was going to make what, 18 million? It made 30 million, but of course, you know that, right? They also thought "Piglet's Big Movie" was going to do 10 million. It did around 6. Do the math, they were 40% off. If I turn out to be right on this one, I don't know how winning a bet still makes it a bad choice, sorry, don't get your logic on that one. Most people are betting on the over, yeah, they are the "ignorant public," but I'm not the only one that's betting that this movie is gonna be huge. The reason the movies this year haven't made that much may be because they suck ass. The last good movie to come out, which wasn't all that great, was Daredevil, and that one cleaned house it's first weekend. Are you even sure that the box office has been down this year? Seems to be doing alright to me.... For a while this year was ahead of 2002, not sure what it is now but it couldn't be that far behind, if it is.
My prediction :
Anger Management 47.5 million
My prediction :
Anger Management 47.5 million
Well, the Saturday estimate is 15.4 million. I know I said I'm staying away for this one, but when I saw that Intertops had it at O/U 50.5 million, I opened an account just to put some down on U 50.5, -140. Did anyone else see their line? With the Sat. estimate, I'm guessing it does 45-48 million for the weekend.
Early estimates range from 43.5 to 45 million. Not nearly close to my 50 million guess, but I still have an outside shot of hitting the 46. Probably should have taken the under, though.
Singuru, I moved to Seattle, but I hear that the weather in the Bay Area has been nice. Just looked at the weather radar and it's currently raining there,though.
Going off of Bringing Down the House's opening saturday and sunday numbers compared to it's friday total, my Anger Management estimate is 48.62 million. But I'm no expert
...but if you use American Pie 2's numbers, it would be projected somewhere under 43 million. Guess that's why they're called "estimates."
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 05:59 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 06:15 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 06:24 PM.]
Going off of Bringing Down the House's opening saturday and sunday numbers compared to it's friday total, my Anger Management estimate is 48.62 million. But I'm no expert
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 05:59 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 06:15 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on 04-12-03 at 06:24 PM.]
O.K., I'll be surprised if Anger Management does more than 45. For it to beat 46 it would have to have an unusually high saturday and sunday take. Maybe the Friday estimate is off by a million, though. I haven't a clue. F*ck it.
I also got some other potentially useful impressions browsing HSX message boards that I think are going to help with upcoming summer match-ups...
I also got some other potentially useful impressions browsing HSX message boards that I think are going to help with upcoming summer match-ups...
according to this article in yahoo - it did $44.5M:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030413/ap_on_en_mo/box_office_3
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030413/ap_on_en_mo/box_office_3
Regardless, the bet had real value, JCambert, and you still come off looking like a complete know-nothing.
From Yahoo!: "Anger Management" had the highest gross ever for a movie opening in April, beating the previous record of $36.1 million set by last year's "The Scorpion King."
You've just solidified your position as someone to absolutely NOT pay any attention to. Congrats.
From Yahoo!: "Anger Management" had the highest gross ever for a movie opening in April, beating the previous record of $36.1 million set by last year's "The Scorpion King."
You've just solidified your position as someone to absolutely NOT pay any attention to. Congrats.
Royler, you sound bitter. No need to get upset. The bet had real value? This is obviously coming from someone who knows NOTHING about gambling, as opposed to someone such as myself, who does this for a living.
The bet had value?!? That has to be the funniest thing I've ever heard. I was preaching all week about how the value portion was on the UNDER. And, by the way, the over lost...remember? How is it that it had value? And, after having won this discussion, and this wager, how is it that I am a "know nothing" as you so ignorantly put it?
Royler...can I ask you a favor? Get lost, pal, because, you are of no value here. Oren and I were engaged in a healthy (sometimes very opinionated) discussion on this over/under, and, you contributed absolutely nothing to it. So, in the future, don't bother contributing at all...because, all you sound like is another bitter gambling loser, which you obvioiusly are.
JP
The bet had value?!? That has to be the funniest thing I've ever heard. I was preaching all week about how the value portion was on the UNDER. And, by the way, the over lost...remember? How is it that it had value? And, after having won this discussion, and this wager, how is it that I am a "know nothing" as you so ignorantly put it?
Royler...can I ask you a favor? Get lost, pal, because, you are of no value here. Oren and I were engaged in a healthy (sometimes very opinionated) discussion on this over/under, and, you contributed absolutely nothing to it. So, in the future, don't bother contributing at all...because, all you sound like is another bitter gambling loser, which you obvioiusly are.
JP
