Last week's game I knew would be very rough for Florida, and they are fortunate to have escaped with a win at all.
Perhaps lucky isn't the applicable vocabulary here. I'm seeing it this way:
Against Arkansas, Florida was +4 in the turnover ratio (having forced 0), and just kept handing the Hogs momentum over and over again. We missed a short FG, dropped balls, and Tebow was demoralizingly sacked 6 times. And then we won the game.
Florida drops to #2 in the AP Poll, which doesn't matter whatsoever in terms of the BCS, but DOES matter in terms of media perception and how the athletes themselves perceive their team. How often have you heard "X team is cocky because they are #1" or "X team is hungry because they dropped in the polls?"
Miss St. will be the team to get the Gators back on track, a role which most people thought Arkansas would fill last week. They are very down this year, and don't mistake a win against MTSU for sparking the Bulldogs in any way. They have not looked good.
Mullen coming to Miss St after being the offensive coordinator at UF for years means that these coaches know each other very well. Some might think this nullifies any coaching advantage in this game, but I'll take the coach who has done almost nothing but win his whole career to outsmart the new head coach who may have been riding the first coaches' coattails his entire coaching career.
Florida was #2 in the country in turnover margin last year, and this year they are 77th and -2 in the margin. With almost the same team (or at least, the players who have fumbled thus far mostly being veterans) you better believe that the Gators will not continue to lose the turnover battle, and strictly speaking from a statistical probability standpoint, the number will be probably be moving to the plus soon.
Line opens at about the same number that a much much better Arkansas team did (-22). Many people will see this number and think there is no way that Florida will cover, that their last 3 games against quality SEC teams (basically not including Kentucky in last four) have been won by a total of 23 points. People will see Dan Mullen and think of his time at Florida and with Urban Meyer, and think that he will be able to play the Gators close, even at Mississippi State. People will think that Florida is losing confidence, that the Gators aren't as good as we all thought.
And the Gators will absolutely handle Mississippi State.
The number has a good chance of dropping to 21, so waiting might be appropriate, but all the way up to at least 24, take:
Florida -22
Perhaps lucky isn't the applicable vocabulary here. I'm seeing it this way:
Against Arkansas, Florida was +4 in the turnover ratio (having forced 0), and just kept handing the Hogs momentum over and over again. We missed a short FG, dropped balls, and Tebow was demoralizingly sacked 6 times. And then we won the game.
Florida drops to #2 in the AP Poll, which doesn't matter whatsoever in terms of the BCS, but DOES matter in terms of media perception and how the athletes themselves perceive their team. How often have you heard "X team is cocky because they are #1" or "X team is hungry because they dropped in the polls?"
Miss St. will be the team to get the Gators back on track, a role which most people thought Arkansas would fill last week. They are very down this year, and don't mistake a win against MTSU for sparking the Bulldogs in any way. They have not looked good.
Mullen coming to Miss St after being the offensive coordinator at UF for years means that these coaches know each other very well. Some might think this nullifies any coaching advantage in this game, but I'll take the coach who has done almost nothing but win his whole career to outsmart the new head coach who may have been riding the first coaches' coattails his entire coaching career.
Florida was #2 in the country in turnover margin last year, and this year they are 77th and -2 in the margin. With almost the same team (or at least, the players who have fumbled thus far mostly being veterans) you better believe that the Gators will not continue to lose the turnover battle, and strictly speaking from a statistical probability standpoint, the number will be probably be moving to the plus soon.
Line opens at about the same number that a much much better Arkansas team did (-22). Many people will see this number and think there is no way that Florida will cover, that their last 3 games against quality SEC teams (basically not including Kentucky in last four) have been won by a total of 23 points. People will see Dan Mullen and think of his time at Florida and with Urban Meyer, and think that he will be able to play the Gators close, even at Mississippi State. People will think that Florida is losing confidence, that the Gators aren't as good as we all thought.
And the Gators will absolutely handle Mississippi State.
The number has a good chance of dropping to 21, so waiting might be appropriate, but all the way up to at least 24, take:
Florida -22
