mazeltrick
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- Sep 20, 2004
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one of the best betting cards i've seen in a long time at hollywood park. here's my full write-up for the entire card. I won't be playing all these races, obviously, but will indicate my top selections.
r1: the only uninteresting race on the card, but it's competitive nonetheless. i played and hit jardineiro last time and he won at 8/1. he's stepping up off a bottom level win, but these types of horses have a sneaky way of getting good really fast once they figure out how to win. note second place finisher robert e. returned to romp against maiden on thursday. the whacky upsetter is he's real special, who has run fast in the past, probably needs a race and wants to go long, but if the speed falls apart, he'll be running on at 30/1.
r2: diamond hondo. this mandella charge has faced some very nice ones in his past performances and now need only defeat the frankel and headley monsters. i think he can and he'll be overlaid with all the high figs surrounding him. i'd also take a look at big city hit, who goes for the very crafty ted west barn and looks like he's been firing bullets since mid may.
r3: the G1 Vanity typically draws a small field and this year's field of 9 is nice to see. andujar ran like a freak show last time but that was on an uncontested lead and you can be sure there are several others who won't let that happen again; namely, the fleet footed splendid blended and the mexican import casty. the race sets up beautifully for hollywood story, who should be rolling from the back of the pack. alas, she'll be bet pretty heavily today, so i may take a small stab with huge class hiker, healthy addiction. gets the acid test today, but at 20/1, i'll throw a few bucks on her.
r4: i hate bat mobile. he's a very tough horse but he's beated me a couple times in layoff plagued career, so i'll play against him one more time. i like courtly jazz, who got taken down from second at golden gate last time out. 'jazz has that grinder style that may be better suited for longer distances, but the price will be right and we get scary gary stevens to ride.
r5: not playing this one as enforcement is rumored to be a monster. the rest of this field stinks.
r6: qsar. loved this one's race last time and if he can string two together he'll be very tough in here. the other one i'll be playing is forty niner's son, who has made me a mint in his last 3 races.
r7: spensive. mulhall having a good meet and this back classer goes off the claim with john velazquez. the big concern is that there's no speed in here, which could make spellbinder tough with the red hot nakatani.
r8: the american oaks looks like a total scramble. typically, i'd recommend playing against a favorite like melhor ainda, who has not improved figure wise over her last two. granted, she won under wraps last time, but this is a very talented field and she'll have to find room to run and quicken at the right moment. velazquez is a great rider and i'm sure she'll be in proper position, but i'm not sure she's got the porsche acceleration if she finds a small hole. the alternative is to go wide and that may cost her. ok, i'm trying to find someone who can stay within a few lengths off the pace and not have to navigate a ton of traffic down the lane. i think i may play luas line, who should go better with lasix and firm ground, at least according to the pundits on TVG. 'line will be a big number, gest an excellent grass rider in RR Douglas and is my selection in here.
r9: triple bend is a total scramble race but i like ender's shadow. he's got the class, has been freshened for this and should get a great trip in the second flight. always thought he's be best as a late running sprinter.
r10: secret charm. love drysdale with these types who have shown moderate class overseas and therefore will not be bet down to 3/5 in their stateside debut. 'charm has run decently in Group 1's in the UK and now gets to take on a less than daunting group of female turfers.
r11: viziership. i'll take patrick right back following the ultra game win last out. the other frankel, crocker road, is the horse to beat, but i'll take pval on the square against bailey.
good luck
r1: the only uninteresting race on the card, but it's competitive nonetheless. i played and hit jardineiro last time and he won at 8/1. he's stepping up off a bottom level win, but these types of horses have a sneaky way of getting good really fast once they figure out how to win. note second place finisher robert e. returned to romp against maiden on thursday. the whacky upsetter is he's real special, who has run fast in the past, probably needs a race and wants to go long, but if the speed falls apart, he'll be running on at 30/1.
r2: diamond hondo. this mandella charge has faced some very nice ones in his past performances and now need only defeat the frankel and headley monsters. i think he can and he'll be overlaid with all the high figs surrounding him. i'd also take a look at big city hit, who goes for the very crafty ted west barn and looks like he's been firing bullets since mid may.
r3: the G1 Vanity typically draws a small field and this year's field of 9 is nice to see. andujar ran like a freak show last time but that was on an uncontested lead and you can be sure there are several others who won't let that happen again; namely, the fleet footed splendid blended and the mexican import casty. the race sets up beautifully for hollywood story, who should be rolling from the back of the pack. alas, she'll be bet pretty heavily today, so i may take a small stab with huge class hiker, healthy addiction. gets the acid test today, but at 20/1, i'll throw a few bucks on her.
r4: i hate bat mobile. he's a very tough horse but he's beated me a couple times in layoff plagued career, so i'll play against him one more time. i like courtly jazz, who got taken down from second at golden gate last time out. 'jazz has that grinder style that may be better suited for longer distances, but the price will be right and we get scary gary stevens to ride.
r5: not playing this one as enforcement is rumored to be a monster. the rest of this field stinks.
r6: qsar. loved this one's race last time and if he can string two together he'll be very tough in here. the other one i'll be playing is forty niner's son, who has made me a mint in his last 3 races.
r7: spensive. mulhall having a good meet and this back classer goes off the claim with john velazquez. the big concern is that there's no speed in here, which could make spellbinder tough with the red hot nakatani.
r8: the american oaks looks like a total scramble. typically, i'd recommend playing against a favorite like melhor ainda, who has not improved figure wise over her last two. granted, she won under wraps last time, but this is a very talented field and she'll have to find room to run and quicken at the right moment. velazquez is a great rider and i'm sure she'll be in proper position, but i'm not sure she's got the porsche acceleration if she finds a small hole. the alternative is to go wide and that may cost her. ok, i'm trying to find someone who can stay within a few lengths off the pace and not have to navigate a ton of traffic down the lane. i think i may play luas line, who should go better with lasix and firm ground, at least according to the pundits on TVG. 'line will be a big number, gest an excellent grass rider in RR Douglas and is my selection in here.
r9: triple bend is a total scramble race but i like ender's shadow. he's got the class, has been freshened for this and should get a great trip in the second flight. always thought he's be best as a late running sprinter.
r10: secret charm. love drysdale with these types who have shown moderate class overseas and therefore will not be bet down to 3/5 in their stateside debut. 'charm has run decently in Group 1's in the UK and now gets to take on a less than daunting group of female turfers.
r11: viziership. i'll take patrick right back following the ultra game win last out. the other frankel, crocker road, is the horse to beat, but i'll take pval on the square against bailey.
good luck
