Amazing NFL stat!

[RSN]

I brought this up a week ago, but I've done some research to date all the way back to the beginning of this NFL season.

It's all about picking JUST the winner of the game.

The straight up winners are an amazing 124-16 ATS this year in the NFL.

My guess would be to just pick 5-6 games per week that you think are strong straight up winners and just bet them ATS.

Any thoughts on this?

 

[charleslanger]

Going by this week's stats:

Firstly, if underdog wins-- he HAS to cover-- and as far as faves: it would seem fairly difficult to win & NOT cover, judging by:

in 10 games the line is 4 points or less
another 4 are within 8 points
the other 2 are @ 9 or 10

...seems fairly difficult to win & not cover-- in spite of parity???

 

[heart222]

So isnt the question how many of the 124 winners were dogs? Which if the dogs represented say 30% you might have had 36 dog winners so you are relly back to capping the game rather than just picking winners and assuming favs if they win will cover. the stats look great but not as simple as one might think. just an opinion.

 

[winbig]

144 games played
SU winners = 123-18-3 ATS (cover 75.58% of all games / 78% in NBA ytd)
OVER 74 - UNDER 68 - PUSH 2
DOG WINS = 54
FAV WINS = 86 (65-18-3 ATS)

 

[charleslanger]

& taking that stat breakdown:

DOG WINS = 54
FAV WINS = 86 (65-18-3 ATS)

you're back at square one:

FAV is 65 - 72(54 + 18) - 3 ATS

Now, if you can come up w/ something like:

1. Games w/ lines within 5 points:

2. Bet DOG Money Line

3. & DUTCH that w/

4. Fave teased somewhere between 5-9 points hooked with one other game...

5. at a level that either side winning throws a profit,

6. But what you're hoping for is plenty of middles-- for obviously substantial profits AND to compensate for occasional downfall of extra game hooked to that teaser.........

 

[RSN]

Charles...

Great idea, but too much work involved.

For example, last night I looked at all the games on NFL.com where I could not see any point spreads. I simply went down the list and I looked at each game and just tried to figure out which team was going to win. Some are obvious, and some I had to think a bit.
Well, (and I'm not capping to boost any kind of record, because I dont keep track of wins and losses) I picked 15 games, not counting Monday night's game, and I've gotten 11 SU winners correct, and missed 3. The ATS record for the 14 games that I picked are 9-5. However, the SU winners today are 12-2 ATS. So I say we just pick the SU winner of every game and let it fly!!!!!

 

[Irishguy44]

Thats a good idea...risky but worth a shot...I listed teams to win and just now compared how I did....14 SU winners...12-2 ATS and 1 push

 

[RSN]

Irish Guy....

I think it's less a risk than just betting the spreads. The only problem is that we might just have to bet every game on the board to get the true effect. Yesterday I narrowed it down to teams I was certain would win the game. My losers were Cincy, N.O., SEA.
I'm going to try this for a few weeks and see what happens. Because, Lord knows I need to do something different.