Aloha (Hello&Goodbye) to Kerry lead in Hawaii!

VOLTITAN · Oct 24, 2004

If Hawaii somehow goes to Bush it seems like that would send a huge signal that Kerry...well, anyway this would be huge for Bush.

Hawaii 2004 Polls
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Presidential Race
2004 Electoral Votes: 4 | 2000 Results: Bush 37.5, Gore 55.8, Nader 5.9 (Gore +18.3)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
Honolulu Advertiser| 10/13-18 600 LV 4.0 43.3 42.6 - Bush +0.7
ARG | 9/7-9/11 600 LV 4.0 41 51 4 Kerry +10
Star-Bulletin | 7/29 - 8/3 681 RV 3.7 41 48 1 Kerry +7

Key: RV = Registered Voters, LV = Likely Voters, A = Adults

VOLTITAN · Oct 24, 2004

In the words of Beano Cook..."This is unbelievable." Undecided's will be huge everywhere.

Star-Bulletin
Sunday, October 24, 2004

Bush takes lead
in Hawaii poll
The president erases a
7 percent August gap, but
Democrats remain confident
By Richard Borreca
rborreca@starbulletin.com
President Bush is now ahead of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, according to a new statewide Star-Bulletin and KITV 4 News poll.

The numbers show a shift in Hawaii voters towards the Republican president. The new poll of 612 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the election has Bush with a one percent lead. In August, Kerry was leading by seven percentage points.

The margin of error is plus or minus four points. The poll was taken Oct. 17 to 20 by Hawaii-based SMS Research.

The poll also shows that as the race draws to a conclusion, more voters are making up their minds. The undecided group shrank from 11 percent in August to nine percent last week.

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.
In the 2000 presidential race, Hawaii was a strong Democratic state and Bush had only 37 percent of the vote.

Bush is winning 51 percent of the male vote in Hawaii, while Kerry is picking up 47 percent of the female vote. Bush also leads with more than half of the vote among those 35 to 44 and those 55 to 64. Kerry is strongest in Hawaii with younger voters. He has 60 percent of those 18 to 24 and 54 percent of those 25 to 34.

According to the poll's breakdown along ethnic lines, Caucasians equally support Bush and Kerry. But, Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly in support of Bush, by a 56 to 36 percent margin. Half of Japanese-American voters support Kerry, while more than half of the Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian voters support Bush.

Gov. Linda Lingle, the titular head of the Hawaii GOP, said Hawaii voters are responding to Bush's strong image as a wartime leader.

The governor added two more reasons she thinks Bush is pulling ahead in Hawaii. First, a strong local economy is spreading more money through the state, and then Lingle herself just completed a swing through the mainland for Bush and was singled out by Bush.

"People feel the president paid a lot of respect to our state by the role they asked us to play," Lingle said.

"To come from a small state that hardly ever votes Republican and that has so few voters and to be given that kind of recognition makes people feel good about it," said Lingle, who flew with Bush on Air Force One to a campaign stop in Las Vegas.

Brickwood Galuteria, the Hawaii Democratic Party chairman, said the poll results mean Hawaii's Democrats have to work hard in the campaign's closing days.

"The stakes are high and I still have confidence that the voters in Hawaii will deliver.

"I will stand by our rich Democratic history and our confidence in delivering for Kerry," Galuteria said.

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VOLTITAN · Oct 25, 2004

Somebody...commentary please. I know it is only 4 electoral votes and Kerry will probably end up carrying the state, but this in and of itself might be a bad omen for Kerry. I'll let it go if this interests no one.

Posted on: Sunday, October 24, 2004

Spotlight could shine on Hawai'i

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

Move over, Florida and Ohio. Welcome to the newest "battleground state" in the presidential sweepstakes of 2004: Hawai'i.

Hawai'i? You must be kidding.

Nope. Poll results in yesterday's Advertiser suggest the race between Republican George Bush and Democrat John Kerry is a virtual toss-up in the Islands.

That goes a little bit against conventional wisdom, but is not all that strange, when you think about it. While Hawai'i is regularly counted in the Democratic column, that hasn't always been the case.

In our first presidential election after statehood, Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat John Kennedy ended in a virtual tie. The first count of the ballots gave it to Nixon, while the second handed Hawai'i and its (then) three electoral votes to Kennedy.

That could have been important if the GOP had gone ahead and challenged results in Illinois, Texas and several other states where widespread voter fraud was alleged.

As it was, Nixon decided not to challenge the results, and in fact, actually presided over the U.S. Senate when the decision was made to accept the Kennedy electors over the Nixon ones.

Subsequently, Hawai'i voted twice for Republicans: The second-term re-election bids by Nixon and Ronald Reagan. So the thought of Hawai'i going for another re-election bid by a Republican is not totally outlandish.

But then, you ask, why does this matter, anyway? How important could tiny Hawai'i's four electoral votes be in a nationwide contest?

Depending on how the math works out, they could be very important. Remember four years ago in the spectacularly close election between Bush and Al Gore, Bush won the Electoral College and the presidency with exactly one vote to spare. It takes 270 electoral votes to become president. Bush received 271.

What is interesting about the Hawai'i Poll results reported yesterday is that a substantial number of voters appear determined not to change horses in midstream despite strong negative feelings about such things as the war in Iraq and their own personal economic security.

Think about it: A majority of those surveyed said they believe they were misled about the rationale for the war in Iraq. A strong majority believe we are less safe than we were before we invaded. A substantial majority believe the troops won't be brought home on schedule.

And they are evenly split about whether Social Security will be there for them when they retire. More than half of the respondents said they were Democrats.

Yet after all that, they were just as likely to say they'll vote for Bush as for Kerry. The power of incumbency!

Analysts have been saying for months that this presidential election could be as close, or even closer, than the one four years ago which was eventually decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

If that scenario plays out this year, Hawai'i finally may get its moment in the national political spotlight.

Jerry Burris is The Advertiser's editorial page editor.

Jointpleasure · Oct 25, 2004

I think it reflects clearly how traditionally democratic states have taken a more rational approach at casting a vote on the basis of who would be best at fighting terrorism, since 9/11.