all polls released last two days

[Willie99]

<table style="width: 600px;" class="table-races" id="table-1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Everything everywhere trending towards McCain, with the exception of Florida which was now tied

Tuesday, September 09</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Pennsylvania</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 47, McCain 45</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Ohio</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 51, Obama 44</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain +7</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Florida</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain 48, Obama 48</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Tie</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Virginia</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 49, Obama 47</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain +2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Colorado</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 49, McCain 46</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +3</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Rasmussen Tracking</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 48, Obama 48</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Tie</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">ABC News/Wash Post</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain 49, Obama 47</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain +2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">CBS News</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 46, Obama 44</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain +2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Washington</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">SurveyUSA</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 49, McCain 45</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +4</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Michigan</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 45, McCain 44</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Wisconsin</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 46, McCain 43</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +3</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Virginia</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">SurveyUSA</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 49, Obama 47</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain +2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Oklahoma</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">SurveyUSA</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain 65, Obama 32</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain +33</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Maryland</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Gonzales Res.</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 52, McCain 38</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama +14</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="width: 600px;">Monday, September 08</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 160px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Race</td><td style="width: 150px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Poll</td><td style="width: 185px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Results</td><td style="width: 115px;" bgcolor="#cccccc">Spread</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Michigan</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">PPP (D)</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama 47, McCain 46</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Obama +1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">USA Today/Gallup</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 54, Obama 44</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain +10</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">CNN</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain 48, Obama 48</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Tie</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Hotline/FD Tracking</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 44, Obama 44</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Tie</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">National</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">Gallup Tracking</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain 49, Obama 44</td><td bgcolor="#e5e5e5">McCain +5</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">National</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">CNN</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Obama 45, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Tie</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Willie99]

key state summary

Florida tied, good for BO
Virginia, McCain moves ahead in two polls to 2
Ohio, McCain expanding lead to 7
Michigan, two polls have BO's lead at only 1
Penn, BO only +2

BO won't be pursuing that 50 state strategy any longer, back to defending blue states and hoping to swing one red state for you.

 

[Willie99]

uh oh, I got lost, please move this thread

 

[RobFunk]

Ohio and Iowa. Assuming Obama takes the Kerry states, that might very well do it.

Obama is almost ignoring Florida. He is campaigning Ohio pretty heavy. Kerry lost by what? Like 120k votes or so. And now you have a superior canidate with a better game plan. We'll see.

 

[gtc08]

forget ohio. colorado and new mexico is eaiser. i heard theres something like 960k more registered dems in ohio then pubs so ohio might work to

 

[RobFunk]

gtc08, Same thing with Ohio. They have a lot of newly registered democrats. If it was close last time around. I am just thinking might be easier for Obama to carry it. I really think this is the state that does it for either party.

 

[gtc08]

i wonder if theres a site out there that'll list the number of registered dems and pubs.

 

[cutacrossshorty]

He is campaigning Ohio pretty heavy. Kerry lost by what? Like 120k votes or so. And now you have a superior canidate with a better game plan. We'll see.

More importantly, unlike 2004, the current Secretary of State won't be sabatoging efforts to vote in heavy Democratic precincts by ignoring court orders, supplying antiquated broken down vote eating machines (the under vote was 16% in these precincts compared to 1.5% in Republican leaning precincts), machine shortages that create long lines, and more.

 

[mamatried]

gtc08, Same thing with Ohio. They have a lot of newly registered democrats. If it was close last time around. I am just thinking might be easier for Obama to carry it. I really think this is the state that does it for either party.

With all due respect to the President and the Vice President, John McCain ain't George Bush and Sarah Palin ain't Dick Cheney. Although, I will grant you, Obama/Biden figures to be alot stronger than Kerry/Edwards, too. So it should be very interesting in all of the swing states and even some others.

But right now there's no doubt that Obama is the one who has to play catch-up.

 

[Willie99]

More importantly, unlike 2004, the current Secretary of State won't be sabatoging efforts to vote in heavy Democratic precincts by ignoring court orders, supplying antiquated broken down vote eating machines (the under vote was 16% in these precincts compared to 1.5% in Republican leaning precincts), machine shortages that create long lines, and more.

If the Democrats lose, they'll be another excuse and more false accusations.

The Republicans lost many razor thin elections in 2006, not one legal challenge and no grand conspiracy theories.

These conspiracy theories, usually fueled by internet bullshit, always originate from the same side of the aisle.

 

[Whoson1st]

Check the polls after 9/29/08 (1st Pesidential debate--I think) Early Oct much better feel for the outcome. Still will have 2 left--but the first one may be the decider.

 

[Willie99]

Check the polls after 9/29/08 (1st Pesidential debate--I think) Early Oct much better feel for the outcome. Still will have 2 left--but the first one may be the decider.

The debates are the only significant thing left. After the conventions, the wild ass swings usually subside. Debates usually don't swing much, but in a close election, they may not need to swing many.

It may already be down to "turnout".

 

[RobFunk]

The debates are the only significant thing left. After the conventions, the wild ass swings usually subside. Debates usually don't swing much, but in a close election, they may not need to swing many.

Nixon beat JFK in that nationally televised debate. And what happened? The public fell in love with JFK's youth and good looks. I am only thinking something similar will happen. The public won't care about the content, they will just be adored by McCain being a war hero and Sarah being a gorgeous mom who has 5 kids.

Let's be real. The pubs will be beat into submission by the crats in those 3 debates. What the viewers take away from it might be something completely different.

 

[Willie99]

Nixon beat JFK in that nationally televised debate. And what happened? The public fell in love with JFK's youth and good looks. I am only thinking something similar will happen. The public won't care about the content, they will just be adored by McCain being a war hero and Sarah being a gorgeous mom who has 5 kids.

Let's be real. The pubs will be beat into submission by the crats in those 3 debates. What the viewers take away from it might be something completely different.

That was the beginning of politics on TV era.

Everybody knows what the candidates look like today, and McCain's makeup artists will make him look as good as possible.

I totally disagree with your conclusion about who will win the debates as well.

It won't be a big Hollywood directed musical staged by the Democratic party, it will be two men on a stage, and McCain is far too experienced and worldly for Obama. It's also easy to debate when you're being yourself. When you need to search for what you think the right answer should be, you lose.

 

[Whoson1st]

In a tight race only (yes 90% plus won't change they're mind REGARDLESS of what is actually said). But to win only means that those that watched and were undecided, will be swayed by the person they most like (translated--can most identify with). Body language, speaking ability, and the like will determine the winner) Again I translate that to mean from 1 to 3% of those that care at all. Huge number maybe...

 

[Dave007inVegas]

That was the beginning of politics on TV era.

Everybody knows what the candidates look like today, and McCain's makeup artists will make him look as good as possible.

I totally disagree with your conclusion about who will win the debates as well.

It won't be a big Hollywood directed musical staged by the Democratic party, it will be two men on a stage, and McCain is far too experienced and worldly for Obama. It's also easy to debate when you're being yourself. When you need to search for what you think the right answer should be, you lose.

BO is a snake oil salesmen extraordinaire. Did you notice it takes 25 words and 5 minutes for him to answer a simple yes or no question.

 

[D2bets]

I heard something interesting about Ohio, they said that Bush actually got 18% of the african american vote in 2004 in Ohio. They postulated it was partly because of the gay marriage issue on the ballot. I think we can assume that McCain is not going to get that 18% and he will get less than 10% and african americans will come out in larger numbers. 18% may not seem like a lot but I think they said it could have been like 150,000-200,000 votes. So that could well be 100K votes changing hands (200K total). Bush won by less than 120K votes.

I don't believe a lot of those recent state polls. McCain is not up by 7 in Ohio and I doubt Obama is tied in Florida.

 

[gtc08]

its a poll. small sample size. the real idea is a list of registered dems and repubs per state. i dont know where you can find that though.

 

[BetIt]

its a poll. small sample size. the real idea is a list of registered dems and repubs per state. i dont know where you can find that though.

Only problems are

-Not all states register by party (virginia doesn't).

-Those with closed primaries and later primary dates probably have inflated dems numbers as some rebublicans & independents changed registration to vote in the never ending primary on the dem side.

-The numbers you get from states are going to be lagging by a few months most likely, especially with all parties doing registration efforts.

 

[RobFunk]

The fact VA is even up for grabs to begin with is just incredible.

What a long way this country has come.