AFC Championship...NE @ Indy

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The simulations are as close as it gets, but the Patriots are forecasted for the slight edge (52.3%) over the Colts (47.7%). After their game in SD, it seems that even God loves the Patriots. While they earned their victory, you wouldn't expect the Chargers to make dumb personal fouls and screw up a punt recovery and get stripped on an interception if they did it all over again. Tom Brady was clutch as always, but it was very impressive that the Patriots defense held the #1 scoring team to just 21 on the road. If they can do that in SD, they are certainly up to the task against the Colts. The Colts defense has looked good, but they faced two teams that lack speed and creativity on offense (KC, BAL). The Patriots have confidence and speed at WR (Caldwell, Gaffney playing their best football ever), TE (Watson), and flexibility at RB. With three capable RB options, the Patriots can throw out a variety of offensive sets and it will be difficult for the Colts rejuvenated defense to account for all of them. Peyton is forecasted for a good game as he looks ready to overcome his history. He gives the Colts a good shot at winning since any close game could come down to Vinatieri's leg. Should be a classic.

patscolts.jpg
 

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Ne +3 +111 56.7%
Ind -3 -119 37.9%

Ovr 47.5 52.1% -106
Und 47.5 47.9% -104

Ne +156 52.2%
Ind -166 47.8%
 

Seahawk
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just a question: how is NE favored if all the stats point to INDY it looks like?
 

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Jetplane said:
just a question: how is NE favored if all the stats point to INDY it looks like?

It's all based on our simulation model which takes many foctors into consideration in the over 10k game simulations used to forecast the outcome.
 

Seahawk
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i see, it's neat... i was j/w. i figured it would play into field position/turnovers/etc. ah well... thanks for replying
 

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