AFC Championship game selection

[BigLou+]

I'm taking Pittsburgh with the points.

Big Lou

 

[PaulV]

Big Lou. I've been a big (though mostly silent) fan of your plays over the past few years, but I'm going against you in this spot. I will say up front that I live in New England and am a huge Pats fan, but I've bet against them before and I'd do it again if I felt it was the right pick. But it isn't here.

I understand the argument that no team is as good as their last game (in the Pats case) or as bad as their last game (in the Steelers case). I understand the argument that when a 15-1 team with the best defense in football is getting points at home one should consider it to be an early Christmas present. I understand that the Steelers demolished the Pats last team out and beat them at what NE does best- that is, to out-physical them on the line of scrimmage. I understand all of that, and quite frankly I can't find fault with any of it.

But I also know that the QB for Pittsburgh in that second half of the Jets game looked and played like a scared rookie, and that doesn't figure to change in this game. As a result, I know that Coach Cowher is going to have to play very conservatively to protect the kid and run the ball upwards of 40 times in this game, a fact that is going to play right into the strength of the Pats D, where they are second in the league against the run. I know that the achilles heel of the Steelers D is in their defensive backfield and that with the threat of Cory Dillon running the football against them (which they didn't have in Game 1) will prevent the linebackers from dropping into coverage early and leave the DBs exposed. I know that Bill Belichick is 13-0 in playing against a team for the second time in a season, which is something that is not a coincidence at all. And I know that, with a -3 spread, you're still basically talking about asking the Pats to just win the game, which I think they will do.

The pick: Pats -3

 

[cam]

Paul:


You're a wise Patriot fan.In the case of a tight game do you want
a rookie or a double SB mvp to play with poise down the backstretch?

Do you want a cool cerebral coach or an emotional trainwreck
making in game adjustments?

Do you want a team that has learned/earned how to win BIG pressure games
or one that HAS NOT learned yet how to win the BIG ONE?

Who rates to overcome a bad start to the game? Would it same reasonable for the rookie to lead a comeback from say a 2 td deficit?

Is asking a road team to cover a fg line that mind boggling?

Take this to your bank..Pittsburgh will lose this game as much as
NE will win it. It's a double positive..............gl

 

[maverick2112]

I am curious about the 13-0 record when playing a team for the second time in a season.........is that really true??????

He wasnt that great in cleveland nor in his first yr with the Pats........

 

[PatPatriot]

What gets me have you ever ever seen ateam go 16-1,undefeated at home,and be a underdog??

When it comes to nut cuttin time Vegas knows its onions...I hate takin road favs, but if Vegas though Pitt. had a great shot at winning why wouldn't they come out Pitt. -2.5, and let the public bet it down,like they did with Pats/Colts?

Sid Rosenberg of WFAN sports radio out of NY, loves the Pats and he is pretty good.He called the USC burial,and basically talks in the same game about the Pats this game.

Don't forget Pitt beat the Pats coming off a bye.Not only was Corey D. out but so was Deion Branch (a very solid reciver).

Look for the Pats quick passing game to the little recivers in man coverage on the zone blitzes.
20 pts will get it done with ease.

 

[Deb12]

What gets me have you ever ever seen ateam go 16-1,undefeated at home,and be a underdog??

Patriot..

The pats finished up the regular season with a 14-2 straight up record and only failed to cover the spread three times all season long and yet most shops closed with the pats/colts at a pk'em while a few had the pats as 1 point dogs to the colts....its all about public perception, that is what truly drives the spread.

good luck

Deb

 

[Berlino]

...do you want
a rookie or a double SB mvp to play with poise down the backstretch?

Funny how this type of the argument was used by Saint Louis fans to justify the Rams and Kurt Warner being huge favorites over the Patriots and Brady 3 years ago.

Brady also had much more respect than Delhomme last year, but Carolina covered.

I'm not completely discounting this factor, but the public is well aware of it so it's probably factored into the line.

 

[ESQAJM]

BL: You have created a conundrum for me.

Paul V said it all in his post above and I really liked NE for all of those reasons. But I still have that little voice inside me saying BL will go undefeated in the playoffs. I've been on your plays the last 3 games and my bankroll has benefited nicely. Don't know what to do.
ESQAJM

 

[blueedwards]

all i'm gonna say is that olympic's opening line on sunday evening was pitt -1.5...that was pounded to pitt +3 in about 15 minutes.

 

[mj23]

When i doubt go with BIG LOU a proven winner!!

 

[oldmanTED]

Big Lou:

Excellent job so far in the playoffs. Best of luck today with your play. Since it is likely my play will be on the ML, here's hoping we can both win.

 

[Eibon]

Nice pick, Big LIE.


Last year you promised if Tenn didn't beat NE you would leave this board forever, but you lied as usual.

Haven't you learned not to go against New England yet?

 

[BigLou+]

3-1 thus far in the post-season. Overall, 22-9-1 ATS past four seasons. Congratulations to Philadelphia and New England.

Big Lou