Advice on a 4 team 13 point tease

[jaypaw]

I have a friend who wants to play this 4 team 13 pointer.

Personally I am trying to stay away from these (how cheesy does this sound)

But I'm having a hard time convincing him to not play this. Could someone with greater wisdom on this board please make the case for him not to take this bet?


Carolina Panthers +9½
New Orleans Saints +9½
St. Louis Rams +9½
Baltimore Ravens +7

I cant see carolina getting killed by atlanta - and the other 3 teams (SF, AZ, and KC) couldnt win by a TD IMO if hell suddenly froze over...


But convice us otherwise!!!

 

[jaypaw]

boy this is bottom feeding

thats my first point as to why not to take it


any others

???

 

[dolphin]

I concur...it falls into the category of "there have to be better ways to make money." Also, rest assured that the books have the edge the further out you go in teasers, parlays etc.

The weakie, IMO, is the Rams. They are a team which could combust and provide a hungry and humiliated SF squad with random opportunities to look plausible on national tv. Bulger throws TDs and picks equally well, Faulk may not be great anymore, the coach in ridiculous, the team picks up penalties everywhere, Tovie Smith is gone AND the defense is not good.

If this bet must be made, I would replace STL with NE +7.5 or Indy +9.

If you are looking for reasons to avoid this in general, just find games you could have used from other weeks that would have lost:

CLE 20-3 BAL
ATL 34-17 STL
BAL 30-13 PIT
CHI 21-10 GB

 

[jaypaw]

I agree in the sense that the books ahve such an advantage

all that needs to happen is one of the 4 get a bad beat

 

[jaypaw]

anyone else?

 

[MrTeaser]

I love teasers. but a 4 team teaser is bad news. Not only that but 3 games at 9.5 is asking for problems and a spread 7 of where a tie is probably a loss is not good either.

 

[jaypaw]

very true - spoken from the true mr teaser - someone might lose by 10 which would run the whole thing - but is that likely?

then again its 13 points off the spread...

carolina lost by 10 to green bay - is atlanta offensively as good? they beat st louis by 10 in atlanta but this one is in carolina

san fran and arizona could win their games - but offensively are they really gonna do it by 2 scores? Possible - thats one reason I'll recommend against it.

anyway thanks for the input

 

[jaypaw]

New England Patriots +7 Sun@1:00p
Oakland Raiders +10½ Sun@1:00p
Carolina Panthers +9½ Sun@4:05p
Baltimore Ravens +7 Mon@9:05p


how about this one - he changed his tune when he saw the criticism

 

[jaypaw]

IMO oakland NE and baltimore are as good as it gets

carolina is the one that scares me but its still not as bad as the other which was mostly bottom feeding

 

[GoFlamesGo!]

I like what he's got there but I would switch Baltimore and add the 13 pts to KC. It'll play a close game and that would give KC two touchdowns. If KC loses by more than two touchdowns I'll be in compelte shock

 

[Holysmoke+]

Patriots +7.5
Colts +9
Patriots over 21.5
Redskins over 22

 

[quantumleap]

I would think a good way to bet a teaser is to play the teams that don't get scored on much. The points you are being given are worth more for teams like these since a defensive team is less likely to lose those extra points.

 

[MrTeaser]

It's hard to even look at the teams. I can't see past 4 teams. 4 teams = bad. The odds of one of those teams having an off day or committing alot of turnover greatly increases when you go from 2 to 4.