One stat I always check is Assist to Turnover ratio. I use Covers stats and if it is a conference game, I make sure to check the stats for in-conference play. I like it when the offense's ATR is higher than the average and the defense's ATR is loser than the average. Could be a sign of good guard play handing out more assists and not turning the ball over as much on offense. And opposite on defense.
I was thinking of creating an expected value by calculating a mean win loss number by weighting cbb wins losses by Ken Pomeroys rankings, so calculate mean, then calculate the variance, then calculate covariance and use a weighted average of those numbers to calculate an expected value. Once expected value is assigned based on weighting we should have an expected score. Compare against line a wallaa
That's probably how lines are created but who knows
[FONT="][h=3]CONFERENCE[/h]
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| Pennsylvania | Ivy League Average | Harvard | |||
| OFFENSE | DEFENSE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||
| POINTS 1ST HALF 2ND HALF | 60.7 26.7 34.0 | 70.3 34.7 35.7 | 67.5 31.1 35.7 | 73.8 31.5 42.2 | 65.5 35.5 30.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.7 | 8.2 | |||
| FIELD GOAL % FG MADE FG ATTEMPTS | 40.1 21.0 52.3 | 42.7 21.3 50.0 | 43.7 23.1 53.0 | 46.0 27.0 58.8 | 43.8 23.0 52.5 |
| 3 POINT % 3P MADE 3PATTEMPTS | 29.0 6.0 20.7 | 33.3 5.7 17.0 | 35.2 6.6 18.6 | 36.2 9.5 26.2 | 37.0 6.8 18.2 |
| FREE THROW % FT MADE FT ATTEMPTS | 66.7 12.7 19.0 | 83.5 22.0 26.3 | 70.5 14.6 20.8 | 77.4 10.2 13.2 | 66.2 12.8 19.2 |
| REBOUNDS OFFENSIVE DEFENSIVE | 27.7 6.7 21.0 | 32.7 6.7 26.0 | 30.3 8.0 22.2 | 31.5 10.8 20.8 | 30.5 9.8 20.8 |
| ASSIST : TO ASSISTS TO | 0.72 9.7 13.3 | 0.77 10.0 13.0 | 1.01 12.2 12.0 | 1.12 14.5 13.0 | 0.90 14.0 15.5 |
| STEALS | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| % 3PA TO FGA | 39.5 % | 34.0 % | 35.1 % | 44.7 % | 34.8 % |
| BLOCKS | 3.7 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 1.2 |
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I pasted a chart showing the conference stats for the Penn/Harvard game. It gives you a lot of info. Towards the bottom you will see the Assist o Turnover ratio. It also gives you the Ivy league averages. Harvard's offensive ATR is higher than the average and the defensive ATR is lower. I like this and is just one stat I look at.
CBB have you checked out Sports Insights Bet Labs? I just signed up and I've been playing around with it all afternoon. THey have about 400 different stats that you can filter to build a system, with the historical data going back 10 years to test your system against. As I'm on my first day I have no clue how good it is but you might check it out if you are a numbers guy. https://www.betlabssports.com/
You cannot win at sports betting if you just approach with mathematics or advanced mathematics. Basically any math you use uses past data. There was a very good article in the articles sections of bettingresource....i cannot remember which article. The article showed examples of many good mathematicians who failed long term in sports betting and why they failed. To be successful in sports betting you should be able to analyze the situation of each match up. If you are to succeed using only mathematics,then the team should have the same players for every game and face the same team every time....but that isnot the case in real life.
