ACE-ACE/Samy/Jackal Over-Under System

[SamyFarhaJr]

By popular demand :lol: here is a separate thread just for college totals over/under.

Keep the following things in mind if you plan on wagering on these games.

1) I HAVE NEVER WATCHED COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEFORE THIS YEAR!

2) I DONT CAP COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

3) I CANT NAME ONE PLAYER IN COLLEGE!!

4) THIS IS STRICTLY BASED ON NUMBERS!

So if after reading all of that you still want to wager Kazillion dollars on these games please dont blame me, ACE, or Jackal who made the spreadsheet if the picks lose.

Here is basically how the system works:

First you need to find the total avg yds for all of the teams. That week it was 44,742 and divide by 120 (teams) = 372.9 yds In Aces formula this number is always constant at 325 yds but for college changes each week (it will usually be between 370-375). Now we want to get total yds for each team.

Penn St. = 459.8
Iowa = 379.6

1) 459.8 + 379.6 = 839.4 now we subtract the avg for all teams 372.9

2) 839.4 - 372.9 = 466.5 now divide this by 7.5

3) 466.5 / 7.5 = 62.2 predicted score

Hope this helps... this is the basic formula.

I will only be posting plays that are +17 or over in value on Thursday evenings.

Here is the current record:

Over/Under with value of ONLY +20 or more: YTD 11-3
Over/Under with value of +17 or more: YTD 17-6

YTD of all games +6 or more: 83-66 (I wont be posting any games under 17 point value)

 

[ACE-ACE]

So far this has been better than the NFL one that I use...So those numbers that the sheet comes up with are a great tool and the lean I would not go against....

 

[JesseBlack]

Sammy, thanks for starting this thread. Good luck this week, last week was fabulous.

 

[dirtymoose]

im looking froward to this! you guys really rock!

 

[Rude]

Looking forward to reading this. Good Luck!

P.S. Threads in the wrong section

 

[DontTazeMeBro___]

lookin forward to some winners guys.. keep it up

 

[SamyFarhaJr]

whats with all the NY people in this thread...

just for the record im not creating these accounts and congratulating myself :lol:

 

[war1000]

thanks a lot guys!!

 

[ZJP6050]

thanks a lot guys.

question: why do we divide by 7.5 as opposed to any other number?

thank you in advance!

 

[ZJP6050]

also, which is the easiest site to get the total yards from? do you prefer statfox or covers

 

[kpbno7]

thanks sam for the new thread other one was getting too cramped hehe BOL!

 

[kpbno7]

hey sam one more question.. when u say "only +20" are u meaning lets say.. total on actual line is 50 and ur formula says its +20 which would be 70.. but what if the formula came to -20 to a total of 30? do i take the under? or do i just play ONLY (+) 20 ?

 

[charliepeete]

thanks for the system i have been following youfor weeksnow..................:nohead:

 

[gmoney72]

I show this weeks total at 44,549.1 / 120= 371.2425

 

[Selectrick]

thanks a lot guys.

question: why do we divide by 7.5 as opposed to any other number?

thank you in advance!

Seems like they must have calculated a relationship between avg. yds. and avg. pts. scored and came up with a constant that is approx. 7.5 , just my guess, but it makes sense.

 

[Jetplane]

bascially... every 100yds = 7pts is what he's saying. but instead of 7pts... it's 7.5... but a decrease in yardage, not that hard to comprehend.

If i told you that i team drove 130 yards in just 1 series... u think the minimum points would be 3 at least. but in reality they probably got 7 out of the deal.

 

[SamyFarhaJr]

hey sam one more question.. when u say "only +20" are u meaning lets say.. total on actual line is 50 and ur formula says its +20 which would be 70.. but what if the formula came to -20 to a total of 30? do i take the under? or do i just play ONLY (+) 20 ?

When I say +20 value it can be either over or under. For example lets say the actula line for game is 50 but the predicted score should be 30 or 70 thats a 20 plus value. If it was 30 we would take under if 70 we take over.

I get the stats from statfox.

For 7.5 it was done by trial and error for NFL (maybe ACE can explain in more deatail) but basically we want to get as close as possible to the actual line and 7.5 was that number.

Try and do this for todays game N. Illinois and Georgia Tech game on Thursday and see what total you will get and how close it is to the actual line. You can use 371.1 for this weeks avg.

 

[war1000]

When I say +20 value it can be either over or under. For example lets say the actula line for game is 50 but the predicted score should be 30 or 70 thats a 20 plus value. If it was 30 we would take under if 70 we take over.

I get the stats from statfox.

For 7.5 it was done by trial and error for NFL (maybe ACE can explain in more deatail) but basically we want to get as close as possible to the actual line and 7.5 was that number.

Try and do this for todays game N. Illinois and Georgia Tech game on Thursday and see what total you will get and how close it is to the actual line. You can use 371.1 for this weeks avg.

Will there be a play today then?

 

[letskibud]

After reading this hole thread, your system seems pretty strong, good job on creating it. I was just wondering where do you post your weekly/daily picks because i don't see any in this thread?? I want to try out your picks tonite for small wager and see where it takes me.

- Has anyone worked out this formula for tonight's game Northern Illinois vs. Kent??? So far the TOTAL points line is 51.
-If anyone can do the forumla for this game i would really appreciate it and so would many other people!

Thanks,
LB

 

[SamyFarhaJr]

After reading this hole thread, your system seems pretty strong, good job on creating it. I was just wondering where do you post your weekly/daily picks because i don't see any in this thread?? I want to try out your picks tonite for small wager and see where it takes me.

- Has anyone worked out this formula for tonight's game Northern Illinois vs. Kent??? So far the TOTAL points line is 51.
-If anyone can do the forumla for this game i would really appreciate it and so would many other people!

Thanks,
LB

I will be postings the plays in this thread each Thursday. If there is a play before Thursday I will also post them here. From Today to Thursday there are no plays.

the predicted score for todays game is 50.48 (actual line is 49.5)
the predicted score for Wed is 66.7 (actual line 54.5 only +12.2 value)
the predicted score for Thur is 40.22 (actual line is 40)

So if I dont post anything means no plays over +17 value. All plays if there are any will be posted Thursday evenings.