AccuScore Game Forecast <TABLE class=tablehead><TBODY><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle>Team</TD><TD align=middle>Win Percent</TD><TD align=middle>Average Score</TD><TD align=middle>Big Win</TD><TD align=middle>Close Win</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>41.3%</TD><TD>18.4</TD><TD>17.4%</TD><TD>13.2%</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>58.6%</TD><TD>21.1</TD><TD>29.2%</TD><TD>15.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages and player statistics, as listed above. For more, visit AccuScore.[/FONT]
AccuScore Composite Index
<IFRAME src="http://dallas.accuscore.com/game_details.php?gid=71" frameBorder=0 width=744 height=310></IFRAME>
AccuScore Player Forecast <TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 744px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px"><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px" vAlign=top><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>PASSING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>QBR</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>88.7 </TD><TD>222.0 </TD><TD>1.5 </TD><TD>1.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RUSHING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>RUSH</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Mewelde Moore </TD><TD>17.3 </TD><TD>50.4 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Najeh Davenport </TD><TD>4.8 </TD><TD>13.8 </TD><TD>2.8 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>2.5 </TD><TD>7.8 </TD><TD>3.0 </TD><TD>0.0 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RECEIVING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>REC</TD><TD align=middle>RECYD</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>RECTD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Hines Ward </TD><TD>5.6 </TD><TD>61.5 </TD><TD>11.0 </TD><TD>0.4 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Santonio Holmes </TD><TD>3.9 </TD><TD>61.1 </TD><TD>15.7 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Heath Miller </TD><TD>3.6 </TD><TD>39.1 </TD><TD>10.9 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Mewelde Moore </TD><TD>2.3 </TD><TD>19.1 </TD><TD>8.3 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>DEFENSE</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>SACK</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD><TD align=middle>FUMR</TD><TD align=middle>TO</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>PIT </TD><TD>2.7 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD><TD>1.4 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px" vAlign=top><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>PASSING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>QBR</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>David Garrard </TD><TD>84.5 </TD><TD>178.2 </TD><TD>1.1 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RUSHING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>RUSH</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Fred Taylor </TD><TD>15.2 </TD><TD>54.3 </TD><TD>3.5 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Maurice Jones-Drew </TD><TD>10.6 </TD><TD>50.9 </TD><TD>4.7 </TD><TD>0.4 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>David Garrard </TD><TD>4.6 </TD><TD>19.5 </TD><TD>4.1 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RECEIVING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>REC</TD><TD align=middle>RECYD</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>RECTD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Matt Jones </TD><TD>3.2 </TD><TD>38.4 </TD><TD>12.0 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Reggie Williams </TD><TD>3.1 </TD><TD>36.9 </TD><TD>11.9 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Maurice Jones-Drew </TD><TD>3.6 </TD><TD>29.0 </TD><TD>8.1 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Marcedes Lewis </TD><TD>2.6 </TD><TD>25.5 </TD><TD>9.8 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>DEFENSE</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>SACK</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD><TD align=middle>FUMR</TD><TD align=middle>TO</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>JAC </TD><TD>4.0 </TD><TD>1.2 </TD><TD>0.8 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Team Trends and Angles <TABLE class=tablehead><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD align=middle colSpan=7>Pittsburgh - Recent ATS Trends</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD width="25%"> </TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Against the spread</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Over/Under</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Straight Up</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD> </TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Description</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>All Games</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>26-26</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>27-22</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>32-20</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Road Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>11-15</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>8-17</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>13-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Underdog by 0.5 to 3.0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Underdog All</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>1-7</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Road Underdog</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>1-7</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Over/Under <= 39.5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>15-15</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>20-8</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>19-11</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After 1 Week Off</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>21-24</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>22-21</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>27-18</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After a Home Game</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>12-9</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>7-12</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>15-6</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC Opponents</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>16-23</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>21-16</TD><TD>3-0</TD><TD>22-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC South</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>3-4</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>On Grass</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>21-19</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>24-13</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>27-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Win</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>12-17</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>15-13</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>16-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs Team with .500+ Record in Previous 6 Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>9-19</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>14-12</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>11-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Not Covering Spread</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>24-25</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>25-21</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>30-19</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs JAC</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Scoring 18-24 PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-5</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>7-5</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Allowing 18-24 PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>5-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>6-5</TD></TR><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD align=middle colSpan=7>Jacksonville - Recent ATS Trends</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD width="25%"> </TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Against the spread</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Over/Under</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Straight Up</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD> </TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Description</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>All Games</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>30-21</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>32-18</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>33-19</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Home Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>15-10</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>14-10</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>19-7</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Favored by 0.5 to 3.0</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>5-4</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>6-3</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>6-4</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Favored All</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>15-16</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>17-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>21-11</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Home Favorite</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>11-9</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>11-8</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>16-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Over/Under <= 39.5</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>22-14</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>22-14</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>27-10</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After 1 Week Off</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>27-17</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>30-14</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>30-15</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After a Home Game</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>12-10</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>14-8</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>14-9</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC Opponents</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>23-16</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>26-13</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>24-16</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC North</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>5-0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>6-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>On Grass</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>26-17</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>26-16</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>31-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Win</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>19-12</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>21-9</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>18-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs Team with .500+ Record in Previous 6 Games</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>23-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>22-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>23-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Not Covering Spread</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>27-20</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>31-16</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>31-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs PIT</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Scoring 25+ PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-8</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>11-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>8-9</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Allowing 25+ PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>8-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
8:15 PM ET, October 05, 2008
Jacksonville Stadium, Jacksonville, FL NBC
<!-- start Weather --><TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>FORECASTED WEATHER</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD class=bi colSpan=3>Forecast for Sunday, October 5, 2008</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, FL
Updated: 10/5/08 11:44 AM ET</TD><TD>Lo: 72°F
Hi: 81°F
Precip: 20%</TD><TD align=middle width=55>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- end Weather -->
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=2>2008 TRENDS (Regular Season)</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 1-3 ATS.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-2 ATS away.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-1 ATS as the underdog.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-1 ATS as an away underdog.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS at home.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS as the favorite.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS as a home favorite.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Head 2 Head (since 2001)</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD>SU</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD>ATS</TD><TD>0-3-0</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD>ATS @JAC</TD><TD>0-1-0</TD><TD>1-0-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD>ATS: favored</TD><TD>0-2-0</TD><TD>1-0-0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD>ATS: underdog</TD><TD>0-1-0</TD><TD>2-0-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=4>HEAD 2 HEAD RESULTS (SINCE 2001)</TD></TR><TR class=colhead colspan="4"><TD>Date</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Jan 5, 2008</TD><TD>JAC 31, @PIT 29</TD><TD>PIT, -2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Dec 16, 2007</TD><TD>JAC 29, @PIT 22</TD><TD>PIT, -3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Sep 18, 2006</TD><TD>PIT 0, @JAC 9</TD><TD>JAC, -3</TD><TD>36.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Oct 16, 2005</TD><TD>JAC 23, @PIT 17</TD><TD>PIT, -3</TD><TD>33.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Dec 5, 2004</TD><TD>PIT 17, @JAC 16</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Dec 1, 2002</TD><TD>PIT 25, @JAC 23</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Nov 18, 2001</TD><TD>JAC 7, @PIT 20</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Sep 9, 2001</TD><TD>PIT 3, @JAC 21</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BACKGROUND: #fff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=2><TABLE class=tablehead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #dcdcdc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #dcdcdc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #dcdcdc 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcdcdc 0px solid" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD align=middle>LAST 10 GAMES</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD style="WIDTH: 50%"><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD style="COLOR: #fff" colSpan=4>Steelers</TD><TR class=colhead><TD>Opp</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>BAL</TD><TD>W (OT) 23-20 </TD><TD>-6</TD><TD>34.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@PHI</TD><TD>L 6-15 </TD><TD>+3½</TD><TD>45.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@CLE</TD><TD>W 10-6 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>HOU</TD><TD>W 38-17 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>L 29-31 </TD><TD>-2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@BAL</TD><TD>L 21-27 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>34.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@STL</TD><TD>W 41-24 </TD><TD>-7½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>L 22-29 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@NWE</TD><TD>L 13-34 </TD><TD>+10½</TD><TD>49.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>CIN</TD><TD>W 24-10 </TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>39.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 50%"><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD style="COLOR: #fff" colSpan=4>Jaguars</TD><TR class=colhead><TD>Opp</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>HOU</TD><TD>W (OT) 30-27 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@IND</TD><TD>W 23-21 </TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>41.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>BUF</TD><TD>L 16-20 </TD><TD>-4</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@TEN</TD><TD>L 10-17 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@NWE</TD><TD>L 20-31 </TD><TD>+13½</TD><TD>51.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@PIT</TD><TD>W 31-29 </TD><TD>+2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@HOU</TD><TD>L 28-42 </TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>42.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>OAK</TD><TD>W 49-11 </TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@PIT</TD><TD>W 29-22 </TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>CAR</TD><TD>W 37-6 </TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>39.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- start simulation --><!-- start AccuScore Graphic if needed --><SCRIPT language=Javascript type=text/javascript> <!-- var f0=new flashObj(); f0.flashFile="http://assets.espn.go.com/swf/nfl/accuscore_nfl.swf"; f0.flashVars="&XMLURL=http://assets.espn.go.com/nfl/accuscore/281005030.xml&BannerURL=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/index&BannerImage=http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nfl/accuscore_espn.jpg"; f0.ID = "as_281005030"; f0.width = "352"; f0.height = "259"; f0.DenyIEdl = "TRUE"; f0.FlashVer = 7; f0.cabVersion = "7,0,0,0"; f0.altTxt = "Flash Player Required
"; f0.render(true); //--> </SCRIPT>
<!-- end AccuScore Graphic if needed --><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD colSpan=3>The Steelers running game is decimated with Willie Parker out and Rashard Mendenhall fracturing his shoulder. The Jags defense is forecasted to hold Mewelde Moore to just a shade over 50 rushing yards. However, the Jags pass defense has been vulnerable this season and the only good performance they have had this season was surprisingly against Peyton Manning. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to get sacked 4 times, but when he does avoid the pass rush he is completing over 63 percent of his passes. Ben has a 45 percent chance of 2 or more touchdown passes, and the Steelers win 53 percent of these simulations. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=gamehead colSpan=4>THIS WEEK'S LINE </TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="25%">FAVORITE</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">SPREAD</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">UNDERDOG</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">OVER/UNDER</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=statName>Jacksonville</TD><TD align=middle>5½</TD><TD align=middle>Pittsburgh</TD><TD align=middle>37.0</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=4> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width=360 border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddrow><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=gamehead align=middle colSpan=10>TEAM AVERAGES & NFL RANKS</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="33%">TEAM OFFENSE</TD><TD>TM</TD><TD>PER GAME AVERAGE</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Total Yards</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
250.8</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
302.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Passing</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
150.3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
176.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Rushing</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
100.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
126.5</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="33%">TEAM DEFENSE</TD><TD>TM</TD><TD>PER GAME AVERAGE</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
236.3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
326.3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Pass Yds Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
162.3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
225.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Rush Yds Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
74.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
101.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle colSpan=9>Pittsburgh at Jacksonville</TH></TR><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=2>
</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=5>When: 8:15 PM ET
Watch: NBC</STRONG>
Preview
More scouting reports: Week 5
</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>
</TD></TR><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" colSpan=9>
</TH></TR><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=9>Scouts Inc. Position Advantage</TH></TR><TR><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>QB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>RB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>WR</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>OL</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>DL</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>LB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>DB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>ST</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>Coach</TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>While the Steelers will play on the road and on short rest after Monday's overtime victory against the Ravens, the Jaguars are coming off their own OT win, a fiercely contested division battle against the Texans.
Jacksonville won two crucial games against Pittsburgh last year, including a postseason knockout. Those games surely are still fresh in the minds of both teams' participants, but a lot has changed since then -- mostly the health of key players. That said, this Sunday night showcase should be an excellent matchup between physical teams with plenty on the line.
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Battered repeatedly this season, QB Ben Roethlisberger is fighting multiple injuries and didn't look sharp last week. Defenses often are bringing more pass-rushers than the Steelers can block, and Pittsburgh has no answer (Roethlisberger has been slow to pick up his hot reads at times). The good news for the Steelers is that the Jaguars have had trouble creating pressure (just five sacks through four games) and Roethlisberger is very difficult to get to the ground. He also finished last week's game well, when his team needed him most.
Because the offense has almost no vertical presence right now, the run game has little spacing. Can a Pittsburgh run game that is without RBs Willie Parker (knee) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder) capitalize on a Jacksonville defense that has been tortured by opposing backs? The Jaguars swarm to the ball and tackle well, but the defense isn't nearly as stout up the middle as it had been in previous seasons. Thirty-four of the 85 points allowed by Jacksonville have come in the fourth quarter.
When Jacksonville has the ball
The scuffling Jaguars run game isn't likely to get well against the Steelers. Injuries have kept the offensive line from blowing opponents off the ball as it did a year ago, and draws, misdirection runs and delays have yielded mediocre results. RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined for just 13 rushing yards in the first half against Houston last week, and finished the game with a 3.3 rushing average. But Jacksonville is built to run and must give it a go because Pittsburgh's defensive line lacks depth and could be susceptible to fatigue. The Steelers also are vulnerable against good pass-catching backs. QB David Garrard leans too heavily on Jones-Drew at times, but Pittsburgh's thick 3-4 linebackers will have problems shadowing the shifty playmaker. WR Matt Jones is starting to come into his own and WR Jerry Porter (hamstring) finally dressed last week, but the Jaguars have created very few explosive plays. And because the Steelers don't give up many big-gainers and the Jags also have had their share of red-zone woes, scoring could be a chore.
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000">Matchup to watch</TH><TR vAlign=center><TD align=middle><TABLE cellPadding=6 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD><TD>Jaguars wide receivers vs. Steelers cornerbacks</STRONG></TD><TD>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Pittsburgh will rotate three cornerbacks throughout this game to take on Jacksonville's base two-receiver personnel. CBs Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend and especially Bryant McFadden are playing well for the Steelers. All are physical defenders, sound tacklers and conscious of eliminating big plays by keeping the ball in front of them. If Jacksonville's retooled interior offensive line fails to control the line of scrimmage, the team will need huge games from the wideouts. Collectively, they have an outstanding size advantage, and Jones appears to be blossoming into Garrard's go-to guy. Jones, Porter and WR Reggie Williams are capable of big plays, but they are big receivers who don't necessarily separate quickly off the line. They'll have to do just that -- or get improved blocking up front -- to have enough time to exploit the Steelers' perimeter cover defenders. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Keys to
Success
<!--Pittsburgh Keys To Success
-->1Protect Roethlisberger: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by Philadelphia's pass rush (nine sacks) in Week 3. LT Marvel Smith's protection skills no longer match his abilities in the run game -- and he's probably the team's best lineman right now. But if the Steelers give Big Ben just a little extra time, they'll have advantages in this matchup. Jaguars coordinator Gregg Williams is notoriously aggressive, but his defense has created little pressure. Moreover, that unit is susceptible to passes over the middle of the field, which bodes well for WR Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller.
2Overcome the circumstances: Pittsburgh's roster has been dinged up top to bottom the last two weeks, and the injury issues are especially troubling at running back and on the defensive line. Roethlisberger is hurting all over, and last week RG Kendall Simmons suffered a season-ending injury. A short week gives the Steelers less recovery time, but they can't afford to use any of it as an excuse in such an important matchup. Coach Mike Tomlin's work behind the scenes in keeping his players motivated and finding replacements for the injured won't be easy, but it is crucial.
3Get something out of the run game: Though Roethlisberger's weekly pummelings have dominated the headlines, the Steelers' offensive line has been every bit as inept in the run game (3.4 yards per carry) as in pass protection. With Parker and Mendenhall out (not to mention FB Carey Davis), the Steelers will have to get creative. Expect frequent double-tight end sets on early downs, and don't be surprised if coordinator Bruce Arians takes a pass-to-set-up-the-run approach. To avoid getting their franchise quarterback pulverized, the Steelers must stay balanced and not be afraid to hand the ball to RB Mewelde Moore.
Keys to
Success
<!--Jacksonville Keys To Success
-->1Contain the Steelers' outside linebackers: Because of injuries along the interior offensive line, the Jaguars rarely will be able to give their offensive tackles help against OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Both players were terrors last week (combined four sacks), and their power, leverage and quickness off the ball allow them to manhandle big blockers. The Jaguars' running backs are excellent in protection, but they'll need to help that rebuilt interior against Pittsburgh's famed "X blitz" to allow Garrard be able to establish a vertical presence.
2Don't be afraid to throw: The Jaguars love to pound the ball and ride their gifted backs, but the ground game is in a funk and the Steelers' run D has been exceptionally tough. Even against a dangerous pass rush, a pass-heavy attack isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Jaguars this week. Jones-Drew is a terrific receiver who will consistently create mismatches against Pittsburgh's linebackers. Jones is playing great, and Porter can be a dynamic weapon if healthy. Garrard played his best game of the season last week and isn't pressing as he did in Jacksonville's first few games. He also has produced on draws and improvised scrambles to supplement the run game.
3Get better on the line: The big men on both sides of the ball are letting the Jaguars down. Injuries along the interior offensive line have crippled a team built around a downhill power running game. Worse, communication between blockers could be a problem against a Steelers defense that excels at creating confusion with its pressure packages. With the offense failing to control the clock, the defensive line is wearing down. But more than anything, the Jags miss DT Marcus Stroud up front. With DT John Henderson facing more blocking attention as a result, rookie DEs Derrick Harvey and Quinton Groves need to start playing up to their draft status.
Scouts Edge
It's difficult to get behind either of these teams at this point. They appear pretty evenly matched, and both are beaten up and coming off intense overtime wins. But although the Steelers are traveling on a short week and Jacksonville has home-field and special teams advantages, Pittsburgh is the pick. We believe the Steelers have the better defense and that their offense is better than it has shown of late. <TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=2>Prediction</TH></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="100%">Pittsburgh 20
Jacksonville 14</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages and player statistics, as listed above. For more, visit AccuScore.[/FONT]
AccuScore Composite Index
<IFRAME src="http://dallas.accuscore.com/game_details.php?gid=71" frameBorder=0 width=744 height=310></IFRAME>
AccuScore Player Forecast <TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 744px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px"><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px" vAlign=top><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>PASSING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>QBR</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>88.7 </TD><TD>222.0 </TD><TD>1.5 </TD><TD>1.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RUSHING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>RUSH</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Mewelde Moore </TD><TD>17.3 </TD><TD>50.4 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Najeh Davenport </TD><TD>4.8 </TD><TD>13.8 </TD><TD>2.8 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>2.5 </TD><TD>7.8 </TD><TD>3.0 </TD><TD>0.0 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RECEIVING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>REC</TD><TD align=middle>RECYD</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>RECTD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Hines Ward </TD><TD>5.6 </TD><TD>61.5 </TD><TD>11.0 </TD><TD>0.4 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Santonio Holmes </TD><TD>3.9 </TD><TD>61.1 </TD><TD>15.7 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Heath Miller </TD><TD>3.6 </TD><TD>39.1 </TD><TD>10.9 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Mewelde Moore </TD><TD>2.3 </TD><TD>19.1 </TD><TD>8.3 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>DEFENSE</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>SACK</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD><TD align=middle>FUMR</TD><TD align=middle>TO</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>PIT </TD><TD>2.7 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD><TD>1.4 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px" vAlign=top><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>PASSING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>QBR</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>David Garrard </TD><TD>84.5 </TD><TD>178.2 </TD><TD>1.1 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RUSHING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>RUSH</TD><TD align=middle>YDS</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>TD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Fred Taylor </TD><TD>15.2 </TD><TD>54.3 </TD><TD>3.5 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Maurice Jones-Drew </TD><TD>10.6 </TD><TD>50.9 </TD><TD>4.7 </TD><TD>0.4 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>David Garrard </TD><TD>4.6 </TD><TD>19.5 </TD><TD>4.1 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>RECEIVING</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>REC</TD><TD align=middle>RECYD</TD><TD align=middle>YPC</TD><TD align=middle>RECTD</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Matt Jones </TD><TD>3.2 </TD><TD>38.4 </TD><TD>12.0 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Reggie Williams </TD><TD>3.1 </TD><TD>36.9 </TD><TD>11.9 </TD><TD>0.3 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Maurice Jones-Drew </TD><TD>3.6 </TD><TD>29.0 </TD><TD>8.1 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Marcedes Lewis </TD><TD>2.6 </TD><TD>25.5 </TD><TD>9.8 </TD><TD>0.1 </TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD align=middle colSpan=5>DEFENSE</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Player</TD><TD align=middle>SACK</TD><TD align=middle>INT</TD><TD align=middle>FUMR</TD><TD align=middle>TO</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>JAC </TD><TD>4.0 </TD><TD>1.2 </TD><TD>0.8 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Team Trends and Angles <TABLE class=tablehead><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD align=middle colSpan=7>Pittsburgh - Recent ATS Trends</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD width="25%"> </TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Against the spread</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Over/Under</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Straight Up</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD> </TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Description</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>All Games</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>26-26</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>27-22</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>32-20</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Road Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>11-15</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>8-17</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>13-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Underdog by 0.5 to 3.0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Underdog All</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>1-7</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Road Underdog</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>1-7</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>4-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Over/Under <= 39.5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>15-15</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>20-8</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>19-11</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After 1 Week Off</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>21-24</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>22-21</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>27-18</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After a Home Game</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>12-9</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>7-12</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>15-6</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC Opponents</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>16-23</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>21-16</TD><TD>3-0</TD><TD>22-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC South</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>3-4</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>On Grass</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>21-19</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>24-13</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>27-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Win</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>12-17</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>15-13</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>16-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs Team with .500+ Record in Previous 6 Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>9-19</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>14-12</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>11-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Not Covering Spread</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>24-25</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>25-21</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>30-19</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs JAC</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>0-3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Scoring 18-24 PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-5</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>7-5</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Allowing 18-24 PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>5-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>6-5</TD></TR><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD align=middle colSpan=7>Jacksonville - Recent ATS Trends</TD></TR><TR class=substathead><TD width="25%"> </TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Against the spread</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Over/Under</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Straight Up</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD> </TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD><TD align=middle>2008</TD><TD align=middle>2005-2008</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD align=middle>Description</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>O-U</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD><TD align=middle>W-L</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>All Games</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>30-21</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>32-18</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>33-19</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Home Games</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>15-10</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>14-10</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>19-7</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Favored by 0.5 to 3.0</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>5-4</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>6-3</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>6-4</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Favored All</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>15-16</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>17-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>21-11</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Home Favorite</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>11-9</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>11-8</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>16-5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>Over/Under <= 39.5</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>22-14</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>22-14</TD><TD>0-2</TD><TD>27-10</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After 1 Week Off</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>27-17</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>30-14</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>30-15</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After a Home Game</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>12-10</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>14-8</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>14-9</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC Opponents</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>23-16</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>26-13</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>24-16</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs. AFC North</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>5-0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>6-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>On Grass</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>26-17</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>26-16</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>31-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Win</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>19-12</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>21-9</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>18-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs Team with .500+ Record in Previous 6 Games</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>23-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>22-13</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>23-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Not Covering Spread</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>27-20</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>31-16</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>31-17</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>vs PIT</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-0</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Scoring 25+ PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>9-8</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>11-6</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>8-9</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=sortcell>After Allowing 25+ PTS</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>8-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
8:15 PM ET, October 05, 2008
Jacksonville Stadium, Jacksonville, FL NBC
<!-- start Weather --><TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>FORECASTED WEATHER</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD class=bi colSpan=3>Forecast for Sunday, October 5, 2008</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, FL
Updated: 10/5/08 11:44 AM ET</TD><TD>Lo: 72°F
Hi: 81°F
Precip: 20%</TD><TD align=middle width=55>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=2>2008 TRENDS (Regular Season)</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 1-3 ATS.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-2 ATS away.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-1 ATS as the underdog.</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>The Steelers are 0-1 ATS as an away underdog.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS at home.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS as the favorite.</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS as a home favorite.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Head 2 Head (since 2001)</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD></TD><TD>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=4>HEAD 2 HEAD RESULTS (SINCE 2001)</TD></TR><TR class=colhead colspan="4"><TD>Date</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Jan 5, 2008</TD><TD>JAC 31, @PIT 29</TD><TD>PIT, -2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Dec 16, 2007</TD><TD>JAC 29, @PIT 22</TD><TD>PIT, -3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Sep 18, 2006</TD><TD>PIT 0, @JAC 9</TD><TD>JAC, -3</TD><TD>36.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Oct 16, 2005</TD><TD>JAC 23, @PIT 17</TD><TD>PIT, -3</TD><TD>33.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Dec 5, 2004</TD><TD>PIT 17, @JAC 16</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Dec 1, 2002</TD><TD>PIT 25, @JAC 23</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Nov 18, 2001</TD><TD>JAC 7, @PIT 20</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Sep 9, 2001</TD><TD>PIT 3, @JAC 21</TD><TD>JAC, NL</TD><TD>0.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BACKGROUND: #fff; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=2><TABLE class=tablehead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #dcdcdc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #dcdcdc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #dcdcdc 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcdcdc 0px solid" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD align=middle>LAST 10 GAMES</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD style="WIDTH: 50%"><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD style="COLOR: #fff" colSpan=4>Steelers</TD><TR class=colhead><TD>Opp</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>BAL</TD><TD>W (OT) 23-20 </TD><TD>-6</TD><TD>34.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@PHI</TD><TD>L 6-15 </TD><TD>+3½</TD><TD>45.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@CLE</TD><TD>W 10-6 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>HOU</TD><TD>W 38-17 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>L 29-31 </TD><TD>-2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@BAL</TD><TD>L 21-27 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>34.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@STL</TD><TD>W 41-24 </TD><TD>-7½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>L 22-29 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@NWE</TD><TD>L 13-34 </TD><TD>+10½</TD><TD>49.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>CIN</TD><TD>W 24-10 </TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>39.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 50%"><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #00839c"><TD style="COLOR: #fff" colSpan=4>Jaguars</TD><TR class=colhead><TD>Opp</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>O/U</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>HOU</TD><TD>W (OT) 30-27 </TD><TD>-6½</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@IND</TD><TD>W 23-21 </TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>41.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>BUF</TD><TD>L 16-20 </TD><TD>-4</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@TEN</TD><TD>L 10-17 </TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@NWE</TD><TD>L 20-31 </TD><TD>+13½</TD><TD>51.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>@PIT</TD><TD>W 31-29 </TD><TD>+2½</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@HOU</TD><TD>L 28-42 </TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>42.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>OAK</TD><TD>W 49-11 </TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>40.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>@PIT</TD><TD>W 29-22 </TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>34.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>CAR</TD><TD>W 37-6 </TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>39.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- start simulation --><!-- start AccuScore Graphic if needed --><SCRIPT language=Javascript type=text/javascript> <!-- var f0=new flashObj(); f0.flashFile="http://assets.espn.go.com/swf/nfl/accuscore_nfl.swf"; f0.flashVars="&XMLURL=http://assets.espn.go.com/nfl/accuscore/281005030.xml&BannerURL=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/index&BannerImage=http://assets.espn.go.com/i/nfl/accuscore_espn.jpg"; f0.ID = "as_281005030"; f0.width = "352"; f0.height = "259"; f0.DenyIEdl = "TRUE"; f0.FlashVer = 7; f0.cabVersion = "7,0,0,0"; f0.altTxt = "Flash Player Required
"; f0.render(true); //--> </SCRIPT>
<!-- end AccuScore Graphic if needed --><TABLE class=tablehead style="MARGIN: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD align=middle colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle width="33%"></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=oddrow align=middle width="33%"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right></TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD colSpan=3>The Steelers running game is decimated with Willie Parker out and Rashard Mendenhall fracturing his shoulder. The Jags defense is forecasted to hold Mewelde Moore to just a shade over 50 rushing yards. However, the Jags pass defense has been vulnerable this season and the only good performance they have had this season was surprisingly against Peyton Manning. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to get sacked 4 times, but when he does avoid the pass rush he is completing over 63 percent of his passes. Ben has a 45 percent chance of 2 or more touchdown passes, and the Steelers win 53 percent of these simulations. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=gamehead colSpan=4>THIS WEEK'S LINE </TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="25%">FAVORITE</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">SPREAD</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">UNDERDOG</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width="25%">OVER/UNDER</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=statName>Jacksonville</TD><TD align=middle>5½</TD><TD align=middle>Pittsburgh</TD><TD align=middle>37.0</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=4> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width=360 border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddrow><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=gamehead align=middle colSpan=10>TEAM AVERAGES & NFL RANKS</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="33%">TEAM OFFENSE</TD><TD>TM</TD><TD>PER GAME AVERAGE</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Total Yards</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
250.8</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
302.5</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Passing</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
150.3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
176.0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Rushing</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
100.5</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
126.5</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD width="33%">TEAM DEFENSE</TD><TD>TM</TD><TD>PER GAME AVERAGE</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Yards Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
236.3</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
326.3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Pass Yds Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
162.3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
225.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD noWrap rowSpan=2>Rush Yds Allowed</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>
74.0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>JAC</TD><TD>
101.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" align=middle colSpan=9>Pittsburgh at Jacksonville</TH></TR><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=2>
</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=5>When: 8:15 PM ETWatch: NBC</STRONG>
Preview
More scouting reports: Week 5
</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>
</TD></TR><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" colSpan=9>
Jacksonville won two crucial games against Pittsburgh last year, including a postseason knockout. Those games surely are still fresh in the minds of both teams' participants, but a lot has changed since then -- mostly the health of key players. That said, this Sunday night showcase should be an excellent matchup between physical teams with plenty on the line.
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Battered repeatedly this season, QB Ben Roethlisberger is fighting multiple injuries and didn't look sharp last week. Defenses often are bringing more pass-rushers than the Steelers can block, and Pittsburgh has no answer (Roethlisberger has been slow to pick up his hot reads at times). The good news for the Steelers is that the Jaguars have had trouble creating pressure (just five sacks through four games) and Roethlisberger is very difficult to get to the ground. He also finished last week's game well, when his team needed him most.
Because the offense has almost no vertical presence right now, the run game has little spacing. Can a Pittsburgh run game that is without RBs Willie Parker (knee) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder) capitalize on a Jacksonville defense that has been tortured by opposing backs? The Jaguars swarm to the ball and tackle well, but the defense isn't nearly as stout up the middle as it had been in previous seasons. Thirty-four of the 85 points allowed by Jacksonville have come in the fourth quarter.
When Jacksonville has the ball
The scuffling Jaguars run game isn't likely to get well against the Steelers. Injuries have kept the offensive line from blowing opponents off the ball as it did a year ago, and draws, misdirection runs and delays have yielded mediocre results. RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined for just 13 rushing yards in the first half against Houston last week, and finished the game with a 3.3 rushing average. But Jacksonville is built to run and must give it a go because Pittsburgh's defensive line lacks depth and could be susceptible to fatigue. The Steelers also are vulnerable against good pass-catching backs. QB David Garrard leans too heavily on Jones-Drew at times, but Pittsburgh's thick 3-4 linebackers will have problems shadowing the shifty playmaker. WR Matt Jones is starting to come into his own and WR Jerry Porter (hamstring) finally dressed last week, but the Jaguars have created very few explosive plays. And because the Steelers don't give up many big-gainers and the Jags also have had their share of red-zone woes, scoring could be a chore.
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000">Matchup to watch</TH><TR vAlign=center><TD align=middle><TABLE cellPadding=6 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
Keys to
Success
<!--Pittsburgh Keys To Success
-->1Protect Roethlisberger: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by Philadelphia's pass rush (nine sacks) in Week 3. LT Marvel Smith's protection skills no longer match his abilities in the run game -- and he's probably the team's best lineman right now. But if the Steelers give Big Ben just a little extra time, they'll have advantages in this matchup. Jaguars coordinator Gregg Williams is notoriously aggressive, but his defense has created little pressure. Moreover, that unit is susceptible to passes over the middle of the field, which bodes well for WR Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller.
2Overcome the circumstances: Pittsburgh's roster has been dinged up top to bottom the last two weeks, and the injury issues are especially troubling at running back and on the defensive line. Roethlisberger is hurting all over, and last week RG Kendall Simmons suffered a season-ending injury. A short week gives the Steelers less recovery time, but they can't afford to use any of it as an excuse in such an important matchup. Coach Mike Tomlin's work behind the scenes in keeping his players motivated and finding replacements for the injured won't be easy, but it is crucial.
3Get something out of the run game: Though Roethlisberger's weekly pummelings have dominated the headlines, the Steelers' offensive line has been every bit as inept in the run game (3.4 yards per carry) as in pass protection. With Parker and Mendenhall out (not to mention FB Carey Davis), the Steelers will have to get creative. Expect frequent double-tight end sets on early downs, and don't be surprised if coordinator Bruce Arians takes a pass-to-set-up-the-run approach. To avoid getting their franchise quarterback pulverized, the Steelers must stay balanced and not be afraid to hand the ball to RB Mewelde Moore.
Keys to
Success
<!--Jacksonville Keys To Success
-->1Contain the Steelers' outside linebackers: Because of injuries along the interior offensive line, the Jaguars rarely will be able to give their offensive tackles help against OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Both players were terrors last week (combined four sacks), and their power, leverage and quickness off the ball allow them to manhandle big blockers. The Jaguars' running backs are excellent in protection, but they'll need to help that rebuilt interior against Pittsburgh's famed "X blitz" to allow Garrard be able to establish a vertical presence.
2Don't be afraid to throw: The Jaguars love to pound the ball and ride their gifted backs, but the ground game is in a funk and the Steelers' run D has been exceptionally tough. Even against a dangerous pass rush, a pass-heavy attack isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Jaguars this week. Jones-Drew is a terrific receiver who will consistently create mismatches against Pittsburgh's linebackers. Jones is playing great, and Porter can be a dynamic weapon if healthy. Garrard played his best game of the season last week and isn't pressing as he did in Jacksonville's first few games. He also has produced on draws and improvised scrambles to supplement the run game.
3Get better on the line: The big men on both sides of the ball are letting the Jaguars down. Injuries along the interior offensive line have crippled a team built around a downhill power running game. Worse, communication between blockers could be a problem against a Steelers defense that excels at creating confusion with its pressure packages. With the offense failing to control the clock, the defensive line is wearing down. But more than anything, the Jags miss DT Marcus Stroud up front. With DT John Henderson facing more blocking attention as a result, rookie DEs Derrick Harvey and Quinton Groves need to start playing up to their draft status.
Scouts Edge
It's difficult to get behind either of these teams at this point. They appear pretty evenly matched, and both are beaten up and coming off intense overtime wins. But although the Steelers are traveling on a short week and Jacksonville has home-field and special teams advantages, Pittsburgh is the pick. We believe the Steelers have the better defense and that their offense is better than it has shown of late. <TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=2>Prediction</TH></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>
</TD><TD vAlign=center width="100%">Pittsburgh 20Jacksonville 14</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
