ACC Week 6

[jimmyshivers]

22-18 +4.45 units 55 %

** Florida State Seminoles -2.5

The situation certainly looks dire this week in Tallahassee. It's only Monday and both the local paper and BOT members are calling for Bowden to step down. This creates a back-to-the-wall situation for the Noles here as a loss puts them @ 0-3 in the ACC going into the bye week. GT is coming in riding a 2 game winning streak and controlling their own destiny. This is mainly a situational play for me as I like to get a team in a must-win situation at home laying a short line.

On the field I have been disappointed with the FSU D but they do have the team speed to contain this option attack. GT only averaging 3.9 ypc over the last 3 games on the ground so there not crushing teams and are actually giving up a good deal of points this year. GT was actually outgained and out FD'ed last week but were fortunate to win the turnover battle 5-1. I think the matchup of the FSU offense versus this GT D is a big mismatch and if they can find a way to block Morgan there going to be able to throw the football all day long. Ponder was still a little gimpy last week and another week to get well will do nothing but help him. FSU struggled in blocking last weekend but GT just doesnt generate the same amount of pressure (1 sack last 3 games). Like in the BYU and Miami games, if Ponder has time he will eat the defense alive. GT also struggles in pass coverage, giving up 63 % completion percentage over the last 3 games.

Bottom line here is I expect this team to put the bullshit behind them and rally this week to try to save their season as well as their coach. There's a lot of doubt right now in the program and I like this situation with this team having their entire system in question. I'm still not convinced that this GT team is all that good and they have enough question marks to make me feel comfortable taking the small favorite here. I've got the Noles by 7 here as they shut up the critics for a little while. Also going to take a look @ the Over here if its under 50

:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Duke Blue Devils +15

Was going to wait on this one but I have to jump on it now getting more than 2 TD's. Not really sure what the line makers see with this Wolfpack team laying this kind of number to an in-state rival; I had this one @ 10.

Big problem in my eyes in this game are the issues that the Wolfpack have in the back 7. The linebackers have struggled with assignments all season and have been out of position a lot. Wolfpack plays a ton of zone coverage and it gives QB's who can make that quick read good chances to find some space (63% passing percentage versus the wolfpack D). Skinner last saturday picked that zone apart and I think Lewis can do the same. Wolfpack are making some changes in the secondary to get more experience (but less talent) on the field and will have 3 new starters in the defensive backfield. State should be able to neutralize the running game but I get the feeling Duke would rather pass anyways. Offensively State should be able to move the ball as well but Wilson has struggled somewhat this year and his skill position players have been average. The running game is nothing special for either team so I don't expect to see any real discrepency in TOP here (crucial when your taking a DD dog).

Bottom line here is its too many points in a conference match-up. The home team should be able to bounce back and get the W here but I don't trust this State team as a big favorite at all and Duke has a history of getting up for these in-state games and keeping it close. Wolfpack by 8 in what should be a shoot-out. Another game where the Over is a potential play.

 

[paulpack4885]

good picks last week Jimmy even though our boys blew it. I got on that Duke line earlier today as I had at 10 also. I see it as a 38-28 win or something along those lines, a definite shoot-out though. Looking forward to your other picks.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on Duke...GL jimmy...you da man...

 

[J-Wayne]

Really like the Duke pick - the O and D looked pretty decent vs. VT last week. I think this one is definitely a 1 possession game as well.

FSU worries me - hearing a lot of stuff on the coaching mess that makes it sound even worse than advertised. Bobby is hung up on the all-time record and is refusing to step down, yet at the same time has missed several speeches and pregame events and has created a huge leadership void. The four big assistant coaches (Jimbo, Trickett, Chucky the Chest, & Mickey) are lining up on opposite sides and creating a lot of tension in the locker room. Mickey apparently wanted out after last season but got talked into staying - now he's definitely leaving after this year and apparently has mailed it in until retirement. And to make matters worse, now Bowden Jr is opening his mouth to the press. Just a plain disaster down there and players don't know who's orders to follow.

Not sure if this is enough to be a huge factor yet, but I think its something to look for towards the end of the season if things continue to sour in Tallahassee...

BOL - been tailing you on a lot of picks and thankful for your posts

 

[indiana]

J.S.............

nice write ups..thank you for the early play..BOL this week

indy

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I'm with you on Duke but FSU is a no touch for me. There is way too much drama in that program to focus on the triple option. It's a must win alright but sometimes it doesn't matter when nobody's on the same page.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Paul,

Hoping for the Wolfpack W, but too many deficiencies with this team to lay more than 2 TD's in any conference games. Especially against a team that always gets up to play us..

Pags,

Thats what I want to here, BOL this week man i see a third strait winning week for you bud.

J-

Thanks for the support man, hopefully most of those have been winners

indiana,

Thanks for the support, BOL this weekend man

Tootight,

I get that, but for me it makes me like the noles more. If Bowden wasn't a well liked or respected guy then I could see this team quitting on him, but I'm willing to bet they want to shut everyone up as much as he does.

Just really like this situation for the Noles, and the shitstorm is a part of that. If these players can't rally around the old man then they deserve what they get. GT IMO is no powerhouse and has enough defensive questions to give this Nole offense plenty of options for moving the ball. Everyone GT has played in FBS has moved the ball on them and FSU do very well when they have decent O-line production. To me this game looks like another Miami-GT except were getting a discount due to the drama around the program.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

:toast:

 

[Delta00]

How many times do you see GT win the turnover battle? That's an interesting note on their game I hadn't noticed

 

[jimmyshivers]

How many times do you see GT win the turnover battle? That's an interesting note on their game I hadn't noticed

GT in the past 2 games are +7 in TO margin, and are +6 this season. MSU has an uncharacteristic 4 fumbles in the game versus the Jackets and that Anemic Carolina offense threw 3 picks, including a few hail marys gone awry. If GT isn't fumbling they arent turning it over because of their offense and they have only lost 1 of their last 9 fumbles. Law of averages says they may be due to have a couple of unlucky bounces. They won't throw INT's unless they get behind because they don't try to force the passing game. You really can't predict turnovers though, but they seem to have had a good run in the last few games..

 

[Delta00]

I get that but it seems like GTech was having 5 fumbles a game last year simply because of all the moving parts but they must be clearing that up a little.

 

[GoForIt]

I see almost all their games since I have lived in the A-T-L a chunk of my life and have many family alumni there at GTECH. This team was a fumbling machine last year. Bebe (Bay-Bay) Thomas is probably the most underrated receiver in football. The rookies at ESPN don't know Tech football because they keep calling him Demaryius (his given name). At least local Tech radio gets it right. With that being said, Tech has problems with Florida State historically. Even last year they barely hung on after Free Shoes fumbled in the endzone. Tough call on this one.
For college hoops fans, remember this name for the upcoming season
DERRICK FAVORS (Georgia Tech Freshman, regarded as a top recruit in the nation for hoops)

 

[jimmyshivers]

I get that but it seems like GTech was having 5 fumbles a game last year simply because of all the moving parts but they must be clearing that up a little.

Yeah, they lost 20 fumbles total last year, but with so many players who handle the ball returning they were bound to see some improvement. Also not playing Jaybo Shaw yet this year has helped Nesbitt find his rythym and distribute the ball better. I think the FSU defense can cause them problems with their speed and their main issue has been in pass defense (ranked 108th nationally). FSU only allowing 3.7 ypc on the season and I think Greg Reid can do alot to harass Thomas in the secondary. If FSU can limit the big plays they will win here.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I see almost all their games since I have lived in the A-T-L a chunk of my life and have many family alumni there at GTECH. This team was a fumbling machine last year. Bebe (Bay-Bay) Thomas is probably the most underrated receiver in football. The rookies at ESPN don't know Tech football because they keep calling him Demaryius (his given name). At least local Tech radio gets it right. With that being said, Tech has problems with Florida State historically. Even last year they barely hung on after Free Shoes fumbled in the endzone. Tough call on this one.
For college hoops fans, remember this name for the upcoming season
DERRICK FAVORS (Georgia Tech Freshman, regarded as a top recruit in the nation for hoops)

Hewitt saved his Ass once again with getting Favors on campus. Wolfpack thought they had him locked up for a while. Another year of relevancy before they go back to the basement.
^<<^

 

[JackieSherrill]

BOL Shivers........

 

[GoForIt]

Hewitt saved his Ass once again with getting Favors on campus. Wolfpack thought they had him locked up for a while. Another year of relevancy before they go back to the basement.
^<<^

Besides Favors, they have 4 other Freshman some which are highly touted including Mfon Udofia #32 in nation by rivals, Glen Rice Jr #45 (if he is as half as good as his Dad then that is a gem) #82 Kammeon Hosley and #135 Brian Oliver. Furthermore, Gani Lawal comes back which is huge. This team should dominate the glass and the interior. There are some high expectations around here. People are thinking "Big Dance" minimum and probably alot further than that.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Besides Favors, they have 4 other Freshman some which are highly touted including Mfon Udofia #32 in nation by rivals, Glen Rice Jr #45 (if he is as half as good as his Dad then that is a gem) #82 Kammeon Hosley and #135 Brian Oliver. Furthermore, Gani Lawal comes back which is huge. This team should dominate the glass and the interior. There are some high expectations around here. People are thinking "Big Dance" minimum and probably alot further than that.

ACC should be down this year so if they can overcome their problems @ the Free throw line and stop turning the ball over all the time they will be an upper-crust ACC team. I can see them dancing but hard to project much when so much weight is gonna be on the Froshes. Regardless, Favors should be exciting to watch in the low post.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Maryland Terrapins +11

Think were getting some value here with the Terps on the road @ Wake this week. I made this line @ 6.5 so were getting IMO a few extra points.

Maryland, after an absolutely abysmal start to the season, rebounded nicely last week with a big win @ Home versus Clemson. The Terps should be motivated here as starting 1-0 in conference play gives them a chance at having a "second season" of success within the conference. Wake is coming off a win over Big-4 rival NCS and has to travel to Clemson next week; for a team that has as many question marks as Wake I see this as a let down spot for them and for a team that plays everyone close to cover this kind of number you would hope to have them in a high-motivation spot.

One of the big reasons teams have had success against UMD this year has been their ability to win at the line of scrimmage. Wake is not especially strong on the D-line (1.2 sacks per game, 4.1 ypc allowed) so the experienced QB Turner should have time to set his feet and look downfield. I don't like any of the DB's against Torrey Smith so the big play opportunities should be there. Losing Darrell Scott IMO is pretty close to a non-factor, he had fumblitis this year and HB is one of the few places where UMD had some depth. Wake isn't an especially strong team on the ground (2.7 ypc last 3 games) so they should also struggle to exploit the young UMD defensive line. Wake has also struggled starting games this year; 3 times they have fallen back by 2 TD's and rallied to make it a close game (and win twice). Resiliency is an admirable trait, but you would like to see a team play a whole game when you need them to cover a DD line.

The bottom line here is that IMO its too many points for a Wake team that seems to find itself in weekly 1 possesion games versus what looks like an improving UMD side. I think were getting some line value here due to the early struggles of the Terps, and this is a good spot to back them here.

 

[mws]

for a team that has as many question marks as Wake I see this as a let down spot for them

Except that the Terps beat Wake 26-0 last year (first time Grobe's Deacons were ever shut out), and this is a circled game for the Deacs.