ACC Wedneday (with a Strong Play)

[jimmyshivers]

65-58-3 -.3 units

0-2 last night, neither team could hold their halftime advantage. Onto tonite..

***** Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -5.5

Really hate playing road favorites but to me we are getting alot of value here. WF has struggled on the road but they have a clear advantage in this game. The teams that have beaten them lately either had strong guard play (Miami) a dangerous low post presense (GT) or a tenacious gameplan (VT). NC State has none of these. I feel like Teague and Johnson are going to eat the State backcourt alive and frustrate them all game long. State functions at their best in a halfcourt set and I don't see them being able to get into their offensive rythym for this game.

I expect State to start well in this game, lately they have started well in most of their games. Every game they hit a 5-10 minute dry spell where nothing works for them, and against an explosive team like Wake it is going to cost them. State has shot nearly 50 percent (!) over their last 5 conference games and they still have only gone 1-4 over that stretch. This is a team with too many holes to stay with a team like Wake for 40 minutes. I feel like we will see Wake play with a sense of urgency in this game and really attempt to take State out of this game early with alot of full court pressure and strong post play.

Feel like this State team is on the verge of a collapse. Blowing the 18 point lead on Sunday has morale at a new low with both the team and the fans. This is the oldest rilvary in the conference and this game will not even be sold out. I had this line @ 10 but I feel we will see Wake by 15

 

[ThePoet]

Big Jim, being the ACC guru around here, surely you can give us your two cents on the big game?? GL on Wake tonight.

 

[jimmyshivers]

**** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.5

Keeping this one simple. These are two teams who are currently grinding their way through the ACC schedule and every game seems to be a tough one. Why not take the points. In each teams last 5 games VT has a 2.2 pt margin of victory and GT is averaging losing by 4 points a game. VT hasn't won by more than 8 all year in the ACC and it is tough to expect them to pull of this feat against a GT team that is playing their best ball. I think this one is tight the entire way with VT winning late. Hokies by 3.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Big Jim, being the ACC guru around here, surely you can give us your two cents on the big game?? GL on Wake tonight.

All in due time my friend, just wanted to lock in the 2 plays that I feel might move on me. That UNC line isnt going anywhere big anytime soon...

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I can't trust Wake Forest on the road yet, but good luck.

Going big with UNC tonight.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** UNC Duke O 157

Duke is going to have to play Carolina's game tonight, and that means lots of shots and plenty of trips to the foul line for both teams. Duke has been in a bit of a slump offensively but the heels don't play good D and I see Duke getting alot of points through outworking Carolina. Duke struggling with 3's a bit lately but UNC is especially weak at defending them (41 % allowed in last 5 games). In my eyes it takes 85 points to win tonight...

 

[jimmyshivers]

I can't trust Wake Forest on the road yet, but good luck.

Going big with UNC tonight.

Understand that completely but the on court matchups/ timing of this game were just too good not to go hard at. I figured you would go big on the Heels since the line is less than 3...

 

[Mr.Cover123]

It seems like Wake Forest doesn't show up unless it is a big game.

If Duke doesn't hit 40-50% of their 3's then it will be a blowout.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Heels are the better team no doubt but I can just see late tonight everyone bitching about how they play no defense at all. Duke does play defense and this one will not be a blowout, it never is. Also, people say the inside game is a huge advantage to UNC. Very true. However, I have bet on UNC way to many times where this was the case and they still try to shoot the 3's and won't feed it inside.

Also, Duke best team in the country at taking the charge may get a few of those inside guys with some fouls. Much better coach.

I have a strong lean on Duke but probably won't play.

 

[jimmyshivers]

It seems like Wake Forest doesn't show up unless it is a big game.

If Duke doesn't hit 40-50% of their 3's then it will be a blowout.

I saw what I needed to see from wake in the 2nd half of the BC game. They had lost their edge heading into the Miami game and I think they will be hungry tonight to get the road monkey off their back. I know this State team better than I know any team in the conference, and I feel like this team is going to quit again. Utterly demoralizing loss on Sunday, and the rumor is that 2 key players will not be in the line-up tonight (Degand and Fergeson). Will try to confirm this later for anyone who is interested.

Last 5 games, UNC allowing 41.2 % from beyond the arc. Anything is possible...

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Heels are the better team no doubt but I can just see late tonight everyone bitching about how they play no defense at all. Duke does play defense and this one will not be a blowout, it never is. Also, people say the inside game is a huge advantage to UNC. Very true. However, I have bet on UNC way to many times where this was the case and they still try to shoot the 3's and won't feed it inside.

Also, Duke best team in the country at taking the charge may get a few of those inside guys with some fouls. Much better coach.

I have a strong lean on Duke but probably won't play.

UNC plays defense, but their style of basketball they will give up alot of points. They will give Hansbrough the ball inside as Duke has no answer especially if you look at their 3 losses were against teams with big men. Sims put up 28 and 12, Aminu went 15 and 10/Johnson went 13 and 11, and Booker went 21 and 8. Hansbrough last 3 games vs. Duke he is averaging 23.33 points and 16.67 rebounds. Ellington is on fire too as he is averaging 21.33 points his last 6 games shooting 51% from 3. Hansbrough and Green are undefeated at Cameron Indoor and I don't think it will change. It's not like Duke is playing great either as Clemson destroyed them and they needed a major comeback vs. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> both teams that UNC beat by around 20 points.

 

[GimmeDattt]

UNC does not play defense.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Heels are the better team no doubt but I can just see late tonight everyone bitching about how they play no defense at all. Duke does play defense and this one will not be a blowout, it never is. Also, people say the inside game is a huge advantage to UNC. Very true. However, I have bet on UNC way to many times where this was the case and they still try to shoot the 3's and won't feed it inside.

Also, Duke best team in the country at taking the charge may get a few of those inside guys with some fouls. Much better coach.

I have a strong lean on Duke but probably won't play.

I agree with everything you said here GD, except the last part of the last sentence.

 

[jimmyshivers]

current form really doesnt matter in this game, especially at CIS. Devils might not win tonight but the definately show up. I just don't see why this should be a big play for any better out there as it should be tight the entire way..

 

[GimmeDattt]

So you be on Dookie?

 

[jimmyshivers]

yep, I think it could go either way but you have to take the home dog in this series whenever possible. Not a big bet for me, I feel that people are getting way too worked up over this game and buying into the hype. Should be a great game but this is a tough spot to unload on..

** Duke Blue Devils ?

will lock in the line along with a write-up later

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Duke will probably have the lead at halftime, but usually in the end the more physical team with big men inside win. Eventually those 3's stop hitting like Marquette last night.

 

[johnboland]

I just love to watch Wayne Ellington play BBall. He runs the floor so effortlessly. He is such a natural. I like to watch him play better than Hansborugh even though Hansborough is a workhorse. Does not get any better than the ACC.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Ellington and Henderson went to the same high school so it will be interesting to see how they both performance tonight.

I just don't see Duke having an edge here.

Hansbrough>Singler
Green=Henderson
Ellington>Scheyer
Lawson>Paulus
Thompson>Zoubek

Duke has better depth, but Ed Davis would start on Duke and Frasor is ok.

 

[Porcupine]

Glad to see discussion from Jimmy and Gimme on the Duke/UNC game, but I'm still torn on this one. Being in NC and familiar with the teams, here are my quick thoughts...

TOTAL: I can see the over side, but have a lean towards the under. I think Duke's chance for UNC to beat them in half court. Teams have beaten UNC by getting back on D. Duke has been playing great on D this year, but struggling with the O (leading to the reinsertion of Paulus (better O, worse D) over N. Smith). I'm leaning under right now.

SIDE: I think UNC is a much better team right now, but haven't seen them show they can match the intensity that I think Duke will have tonight..coming off being embarrased at Clemson, defending Cameron against UNC and trying to stop Hansbrough+ from going 4-0 in Durham, etc. Leaning UNC right now.