sorry for no response guys, a little preoccupied tonight. Not a GOY play because I don't know what else the card is going to throw at me in the future, but I will say that I don't play plays for any higher # of units than this. I think this line is off by alot and I really think the Noles can win outright. This is good matchup for them and they will be motivated.
I will have a write up for this game in the morning.
I will have a write up for this game in the morning.
I love Florida State and I already put my money down on them as I see this line dropping. I got it at 12 and it is one of my best bets tonight. I just placed the bet, but will do my picks thread after work today. Knowing that you are on it strong as well only makes me feel even more confident. Thanks Jimmy!
****** Florida State Seminoles +11.5
I know that alot of people are into Game of the Years and what not, and though this is my strongest play this season, I get nervous with that kind of nomenclature being thrown around. This play is only a unit stronger than my 5 star plays, of which I have had several. This has been done only to show what I believe to be this plays strength and my confidence in it. As always proper money management is key and anything can happen in any game that you wager on. Onto the game:
Not really sure why the Seminoles are getting such little respect from the oddsmakers in this game. Yes Duke has covered 3 straight games, but 2 of those games were against finesse teams and the other game (VT) was a dubious cover at best as the perfect free throw storm down the stretch had to come into play for them to cover. All 3 of those games were very tiight down the stretch only to fall into Dukes hands at the very end. In none of the three victories since the insertion of Elliot Williams into the starting lineup have they covered this number.
On the court I think the Seminoles provide a very dangerous match-up for the Devils. Duke has prided itself on defense this season (even though their allowing 52 % fgs and 41 % 3 pointers in the last five games) and this is even more so the identity of the Seminoles. FSU does a great job creating on the ball pressure (.64 Assist/ TO ratio in last 5) and forcing opponents to take difficult shots. Florida State has alot more size than Duke but has the athleticism to keep up with the Devils motion offense. I don't expect FSU to score alot tonight but only because they are going to be able to do what they have done all season; create turnovers and frustrate
I love getting double digit points with a top 25 team that has the best player on the court. Tony Douglas is having an ACC POY caliber season and I have to think he will have as much motivation as anyone in the building tonight. He will most likely draw Gerald Henderson tonight and I expect him to be able to frustrate the Duke leader tonight and from that Duke will have a really hard time establishing their offensive flow.
The Seminoles under Leonard Hamilton have made a habit of playing Duke very closely @ Cameron. The last 2 games between these teams here have both been 1 point affairs and the game before that was a 5 point blue devil win. I think Hamilton does a good job of having his team ready to play in these big spots and I expect another big effort. This team was shafted last year trying to get into the tournament and I from the quotes I have seen from some of the players they have made it apparent that they are not letting up at any point in this season.
I know its senior night in Durham and that could reflect a little bit of the inflation of the line, as they will be honoring Pocious, Paulus and McClure. I don't by into this being an big factor for this team as it has been a very underwhelming class for the Blue Devils, with Paulus in particular showing alot of regression. This particular crop of seniors has gone 0-3 STRAIGHT UP on senior nights in the past, losing twice to UNC and 1 time to maryland. I think the Noles will have a excellent shot at the straight up victory here. Noles by 4.
Also Duke has done an awful job this year of making free throws down the stretch so if they do manage to build a nice lead FSU should have plenty of opportunities to cover this number. I feel like Duke would have to play a nearly perfect game to cover this number and after watching this team 20+ times this season I like my chances of this not happening.
Best of Luck to you if you play this one :toast:
Leaning to the under here, and will have a few more plays as well..
I know that alot of people are into Game of the Years and what not, and though this is my strongest play this season, I get nervous with that kind of nomenclature being thrown around. This play is only a unit stronger than my 5 star plays, of which I have had several. This has been done only to show what I believe to be this plays strength and my confidence in it. As always proper money management is key and anything can happen in any game that you wager on. Onto the game:
Not really sure why the Seminoles are getting such little respect from the oddsmakers in this game. Yes Duke has covered 3 straight games, but 2 of those games were against finesse teams and the other game (VT) was a dubious cover at best as the perfect free throw storm down the stretch had to come into play for them to cover. All 3 of those games were very tiight down the stretch only to fall into Dukes hands at the very end. In none of the three victories since the insertion of Elliot Williams into the starting lineup have they covered this number.
On the court I think the Seminoles provide a very dangerous match-up for the Devils. Duke has prided itself on defense this season (even though their allowing 52 % fgs and 41 % 3 pointers in the last five games) and this is even more so the identity of the Seminoles. FSU does a great job creating on the ball pressure (.64 Assist/ TO ratio in last 5) and forcing opponents to take difficult shots. Florida State has alot more size than Duke but has the athleticism to keep up with the Devils motion offense. I don't expect FSU to score alot tonight but only because they are going to be able to do what they have done all season; create turnovers and frustrate
I love getting double digit points with a top 25 team that has the best player on the court. Tony Douglas is having an ACC POY caliber season and I have to think he will have as much motivation as anyone in the building tonight. He will most likely draw Gerald Henderson tonight and I expect him to be able to frustrate the Duke leader tonight and from that Duke will have a really hard time establishing their offensive flow.
The Seminoles under Leonard Hamilton have made a habit of playing Duke very closely @ Cameron. The last 2 games between these teams here have both been 1 point affairs and the game before that was a 5 point blue devil win. I think Hamilton does a good job of having his team ready to play in these big spots and I expect another big effort. This team was shafted last year trying to get into the tournament and I from the quotes I have seen from some of the players they have made it apparent that they are not letting up at any point in this season.
I know its senior night in Durham and that could reflect a little bit of the inflation of the line, as they will be honoring Pocious, Paulus and McClure. I don't by into this being an big factor for this team as it has been a very underwhelming class for the Blue Devils, with Paulus in particular showing alot of regression. This particular crop of seniors has gone 0-3 STRAIGHT UP on senior nights in the past, losing twice to UNC and 1 time to maryland. I think the Noles will have a excellent shot at the straight up victory here. Noles by 4.
Also Duke has done an awful job this year of making free throws down the stretch so if they do manage to build a nice lead FSU should have plenty of opportunities to cover this number. I feel like Duke would have to play a nearly perfect game to cover this number and after watching this team 20+ times this season I like my chances of this not happening.
Best of Luck to you if you play this one :toast:
Leaning to the under here, and will have a few more plays as well..
Your ACC opinions are second to none.
Annually, I'll throw a little dough on an outsider 100/1 type team and while I've failed every year I've done it, it helps me get into a team I'd otherwise wouldn't be into that. That said, my team this year (Boston College as well because I'm a homer) is Florida State.
Having said that, following this Seminole team regularly, I really like this play tonight as well.
Good luck, James!
Annually, I'll throw a little dough on an outsider 100/1 type team and while I've failed every year I've done it, it helps me get into a team I'd otherwise wouldn't be into that. That said, my team this year (Boston College as well because I'm a homer) is Florida State.
Having said that, following this Seminole team regularly, I really like this play tonight as well.
Good luck, James!
