ACC Thursday

[jimmyshivers]

86-75-3 +11.2 units

nice 2-1 night, lost out on the Maryland cover when Vasquez got into serious foul trouble early. Onto tonight with:

**** Miami Hurricanes -4

Really like this spot for the traveling Canes. Think we are getting some serious line value because of the Canes dropping 5 straight conference games on the road (Duke, FSU, UNC, NCS and UMD). This is another game that I am betting because one team needs this game alot more than the other. UVA has played better basketball over the last few weeks but I just can't see them beating this Miami team tonight.

On the court I think this is a strong matchup for the Canes. The Cavs struggle with perimeter D (38.1% of opponents shots are 3's) and this is the area of the game that Miami loves to attack. I think Landesberg is a nice player but he will have his hands full trying to follow Jack McClinton all over the court tonight.

Also I am really unimpressed with the Cavs interior game. I like for Collins to be able to get his game back on track tonight, as he should be able to own the interior and be able to control the offensive glass. On defense I expect the Miami zone to cause lots of problems for UVA. Miami doesnt cause alot of turnovers but they are great at stopping penetrating guards with their 2-3 zone and I expect this to give Landesberg alot of trouble in getting into the offense. As Landesberg goes, so go the Cavs.

Still, road games are tough in this conference, but I have to think this is a good spot for the Canes. They have been looking all around and seeing their bubble bretheren in the conference winning tough games, and it is their turn tonight. Canes by 10

 

[VinnytheWorm]

Good luck tonight!

 

[papicker]

gl like this one this is a rare good spot for the road favorite

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** North Carolina State Wolfpack +12

Think this is a good spot to take the Wolpack as they have been playing everyone closely as of late. While I realize Wake has been a different animal in the LJC this season, I don't think there playing well enough (or state is playing poorly enough) to justify this kind of number. State has actually won 3 of 4 conference games straight up (with a 9 point loss @ UNC in the mix as well) including a 6 point victory over this same Wake team 2 weeks ago. I think this State team is rallying at the right time, and though it won't get them into the tournament they are playing right now to cause as much disruption as possible.

A big reason for the improved play for State has been the changing of the starting line-up. The insertion of a much-improved Javi Gonzalez back into the starting 5 has provided alot of stability with regards to bringing the ball up the court, as well as providing an additional scoring option. State is also getting strong production from F Tracy Smith in the low post, which allows Courtney fells to create matchup problems on the perimeter with his size and and allows F Costner a little more flexibility to move away from the basket. Since the line-up switch teams have really struggled to adjust to the new wolfpack offense, and it has resulted in 81.4 ppg in the last 5 (compared to their 73.6 ppg conference average).

To me its just hard to expect a tournament bound team like Wake to be able to cover this kind of a number against a team playing its best ball of the season. Not a big play because I know that Wake is able to run up some lopsided numbers @ home, but I like the Wolfpack to stay within the number here. Wake by 8 imo..


Also looking hard @ the total for this game as both teams are shooting well over 50 % in their last five games and both defenses have struggled to force turnovers. See this game being played in the upper 70's to 80's...

 

[papicker]

i was thinkin the over in the wake state game i would have to go with state as well if goin for a side.

 

[jimmyshivers]

just think this is a great time of year to play the bigger dogs in conference play against the teams who arent playing for alot. IMO these big favs often don't want to over-exert themselves and give anything away when the most important part of the season is just around the corner.

In this game I just don't see either side playing enough defense on the other to keep this game below the total. I see something like 83-75 being a perfectly reasonable final

 

[NastyNoles]

Good call on the Va tech game last night Jimmy...I like your wolfpack play, its way to many pts for the underdog right now. Miami scares me on the road though. I saw virginia and miami play here at fsu and I was more impressed with virginia. Miami does have more to play for but virginia has been hot at home lately. I think with this game being a close match up, virginia might cover at the end with homecourt calls and making their free throws but I could be wrong. I will probably just play nc state....ethier way Gl Jimmy!

 

[G.MONEY]

Best of Luck Jimmy

 

[jimmyshivers]

adding:

*** NCS/Wake O 151

 

[jimmyshivers]

Good call on the Va tech game last night Jimmy...I like your wolfpack play, its way to many pts for the underdog right now. Miami scares me on the road though. I saw virginia and miami play here at fsu and I was more impressed with virginia. Miami does have more to play for but virginia has been hot at home lately. I think with this game being a close match up, virginia might cover at the end with homecourt calls and making their free throws but I could be wrong. I will probably just play nc state....ethier way Gl Jimmy!

Good points here I could definitely see this but I have to take the better team with more to play for laying a short number. If you follow line movement at all this one has me feeling a little squeamish today but sometimes you have to go with your gut. Either way, NCS is a decent play today and if it gets back to 12 I may upgrade it..

 

[C-LO]

GL tonight Jimmy!! Getting ever so close to the tourney!!

 

[jimmyshivers]

adding another unit on NCS tonight. Final card

**** Miami -4
*** NCS +12
*** NCS Wake o 151
* NCS +11.5

If the state game covers I will count it as a 1-0, if it pushes on the 12 it is a 0-1-1. Best of luck to everyone tonight

 

[louisvillekid]

GL tonight, i'm on Wake though, like the D and speed.

 

[CaptFlippy]

GL jimmy!

 

[NastyNoles]

Yea Miami is the better team for sure. Even though Im not a fan of teasers. I had thought about doing a three game 8 point teaser with nc state at +20 and virginia at +12 and leavin the 3rd game open for another acc game on sat. Miami hasnt won in its last 5 road road games and if they win it wont be by 12 or 13. Nc state is playing to good right now to loose by 20+ points.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Nasty to me its tough to take teasers, especially in these acc games which tend to have very volatile scoring. If I was to base a teaser off of tonight I think you have the right sides though..

 

[BBBILLY]

Thank you very much Jimmy. I always read your threads and appreciate your plays! BBB

 

[C-LO]

Nice!!!!

 

[TuArmedMan]

Thought you might need this:

 

[jimmyshivers]

nice 3-0 night UVA played Miami tough but the end of game got away from them. An ugly game to be sure but Miami was able to grind it out and come away with a nice win on the road. It doesnt really boost the resume but it certainly gives them a little confidence away from home.

Like expected their was very little defense in the Wake game and both teams scored at will. Wake is just a little stronger on offense and if you don't get any stops against them it is going to be hard to compete. State is playing very good ball right now and they are going to cause everyone that plays them problems the rest of the season. This is an NIT team but likely one that will be very dangerous.