ACC Postseason, Week 1

[jimmyshivers]

117-97-5 + 38.1 units

As a College basketball fan, this is absolutely the most exciting week of the season. Everyone who playing feels they have a shot at doing something special, and although only a handful of teams can win the whole thing, the intensity with which these games are played makes nearly every game of this tournament worthwhile for the fans.

I usually scale my units back for the end season tournaments, and this year will start no different. Instead of a 5 unit system, I will be staying in the 0.5-3 unit range. This is done for 2 reasons, so that I don't get burnt taking or fading teams from other conferences that I don't know as much about, and so I can enjoy watching all of the action as much as possible without worrying about point spreads and over/unders. That being said, I'm still a bettor, and if I think I can find an edge over the numbers then I will have to take it.

Going to add plays as I go this week for both the NIT and NCAA in this thread. Good luck to everyone, and enjoy the basketball :toast:

*** Cleveland State Vikings +8

Wake has to be feeling like they got jipped. Not only did they slip to a 4 seed after thursdays loss, but they have drawn imo a very live dog in Cleveland State. Wake is a team that thives on transition and penetration, and I think for the Deacs CSU is a horrible matchup for them. The Vikings do a good job of not turning the ball over (10 TO's per over last 5 games) and slowing the game down (47 shots per game over the same stretch; Wake is used to taking 62). For a team that only scores 65 ppg,the Vikings get pretty solid balance, with 3 players in double figures for the season and a solid rotation of 8 players that get serious playing time. I expect the Vikings to be able to frustrate Wake with their deliberate pace, and force the Deacons into offensive mistakes. The Deacs do not take good care of the ball (.76 A/TO ratio) and their pgs Teague and Smith in particular have been known to force things when they are frustrated with the pace of the game.

Wakes struggles on the road have been well documented but in my eyes they are a serious factor here. This is a young team that greatly benefitted from the home crowd factor this season and was very mediocre on the road. For a team that has only one 7 of their last 12 games overall, 8 points seems like alot to ask for against a team that will slow the game down and try to frustrate the young Deacs. I think CSU has a great shot @ pulling the upset, but the 8 points should be gravy.

Will have several more as I play them, but this is all for right now.

 

[Jetplane]

Get em Jimmy

 

[Strick]

Very good write-up. Some of the road losses for Wake are really bad as well. They lost to GT, they were bukkaked in Miami, and they lost to a very unpredictable Wolfpack squad in the RBC Center. Throw in the horrible performance against the Terps in Atlanta and you can see the Deacs are a different ball club outside of Lawrence Joel.

BOL

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Duquesne Dukes +8

This play is pretty much a Hokie fade. Think this team will be deflated after the tough loss versus UNC and should struggle to give a big effort. Duquesne is a respectable 8-6 on the road this season and is coming off a big effort in the A-10 tourney. From watching this Hokie team play this season they have been a very up and down team and emotional teams like that often struggle in these lesser tournaments where they had their bubble burst. Duquesne has beaten some good teams this year (Dayton, Xavier) and the Hokie HC advantage (only 9-5 SU @ home this season) should be minimal. Possible outright victory for the Dukes imo..

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Miami/ Providence O 147.5

Lean to PC on the side but like the total more, and I am trying to be more selective at the end of the season. Not feeling much of a write-up here but PC usually is good for about 75 and their defense isnt very great either. Miami has had a little trouble scoring of late but I expect to see the Canes play alot looser tonight as they don't have any pressure on them to make the dance and they should be able to find a way to score. Thinking we see mid 150's tonight.

Also stepping OOC tonight for:

* Baylor Bears -3

GT has quit this year and will be ready for the season to end. Bears on a nice upswing and should have plenty of juice @ home in this one.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I'm on Providence and Baylor too. Both Miami and Georgetown have quit IMO.

 

[Hamboner0182]

hey jimmy does anyone in the ACC play a 1-3-1?

 

[Ketch]

I'm on Providence and Baylor too. Both Miami and Georgetown have quit IMO.

how can u say quit new tourney now like GT a lot

 

[jimmyshivers]

hey jimmy does anyone in the ACC play a 1-3-1?

No you don't see alot of 1-3-1 in the ACC. Alot of these teams really like their athletes and stick to the Man to Man over 80 % of the time. Notable ecceptions to this are Miami who plays alot of 2-3 and Maryland who as been playing alot of 3-2 zone to keep bigger opponents out of the paint.

 

[Hamboner0182]

No you don't see alot of 1-3-1 in the ACC. Alot of these teams really like their athletes and stick to the Man to Man over 80 % of the time. Notable ecceptions to this are Miami who plays alot of 2-3 and Maryland who as been playing alot of 3-2 zone to keep bigger opponents out of the paint.

ok thanks, im just looking to see how clemson is going to react against michigans zones. They plays a lot of 1-3-1, some 2-3 and some 3-2

looks like they pounded Miami and mayland

 

[jimmyshivers]

yeah but that was when they were playing well (tigers are 7-8 SU in last 15). havent looked at this game nearly enough but I see the Tigers having trouble with the deliberate pace of UM.

Also like the coaching match-up for Michigan. Beilien has had some tourney success but this is a young team full of someone elses players. Also have to check out how UM is going to handle the Tiger athleticism. IMO this looks like a tight low scoring game and I can see the points being very valuable.

adding: * Miami Hurricanes +2.5

 

[maris09]

Interesting that you don't think Wake matches up well with them. Wake has a large height advantage and will be pushing the ball hard. Teague has also stated that he is going to be more aggressive. Cleveland State also plays a man defense which Wake thrives against. Wake's fired up and I'm sure they'll play a lot better than they did in Atlanta.

I agree though, it's going to be a heck of a game. I'm not touching the spread but wanted to have a friendly dialogue with a fellow ACC nut.

 

[I_Need_Money]

how can u say quit new tourney now like GT a lot

Wait...You like it more because someone says they feel like a team has quit?

Good capping right there hno:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Interesting that you don't think Wake matches up well with them. Wake has a large height advantage and will be pushing the ball hard. Teague has also stated that he is going to be more aggressive. Cleveland State also plays a man defense which Wake thrives against. Wake's fired up and I'm sure they'll play a lot better than they did in Atlanta.

I agree though, it's going to be a heck of a game. I'm not touching the spread but wanted to have a friendly dialogue with a fellow ACC nut.

Wake will push the ball hard but in my opinion this is going to be why they struggle. CSU does play a man D but they have made a living all season out of frustrating opponents (just ask syracuse) who are bigger than them. When I capped this game to me the thing that stuck out was the way that Wake has struggled outside of LJC. To me this speaks volumes about a teams maturity level and their ability to focus on the court action and play ball. Adding in a first time tourney coach like Gaudio and it makes me very nervous to expect the deacs to cover this kind of number, especially facing a CSU team that is on an uptic at the right time.

As far as Teague being more aggressive that could be a major issue. The kid definately has big time chops but in the 2nd half of the season he went from ACC POY to 2nd team. I think he gets to forceful with the rock as it is and if the tries to push things too much he could run into alot of problems.

always down for any conversations about these teams. I never feel like I know it all and am always looking for good insight from anyone. Thanks for the insight maris

 

[jimmyshivers]

adding ** Maryland Terrapins +1.5

Will try to do a write-up b4 the game but it amounts to the hotter team from the better conference getting points. Think the Terps transition game will be tough for this Cal team.

 

[maris09]

Wake will push the ball hard but in my opinion this is going to be why they struggle. CSU does play a man D but they have made a living all season out of frustrating opponents (just ask syracuse) who are bigger than them. When I capped this game to me the thing that stuck out was the way that Wake has struggled outside of LJC. To me this speaks volumes about a teams maturity level and their ability to focus on the court action and play ball. Adding in a first time tourney coach like Gaudio and it makes me very nervous to expect the deacs to cover this kind of number, especially facing a CSU team that is on an uptic at the right time.

As far as Teague being more aggressive that could be a major issue. The kid definately has big time chops but in the 2nd half of the season he went from ACC POY to 2nd team. I think he gets to forceful with the rock as it is and if the tries to push things too much he could run into alot of problems.

always down for any conversations about these teams. I never feel like I know it all and am always looking for good insight from anyone. Thanks for the insight maris

I agree about the scrappy D...luckily Wake has faced this with N.C. State and a few of the early OOC games. Dino's (and the team's for that matter) inexperience in the tourney definately will affect them. I also agree about the away woes.

Teague has definately disappeared. He's passed up wide open shots and seems to have lost himself once Ish was back in the lineup. Lots of talent amongst the players...who knows what that'll turn into. They can beat Duke and UNC but can then lose to mediocre teams...hopefully they play up to their ability. The spread looks about right to me...game can go either way.

 

[knucklecup]

Maryland was definitely the play here.

I thought it all along but was rushed this afternoon and decided not to go with my gut.

Wish I would have seen this.

Good luck in the tournament, Jimmy.

 

[kreitmaster]

adding ** Maryland Terrapins +1.5

Will try to do a write-up b4 the game but it amounts to the hotter team from the better conference getting points. Think the Terps transition game will be tough for this Cal team.

Good call, one of the best 15 minute stretches for Maryland all year there at the end of the game. They were scrappy, rebounded well, and played good team basketball for a change. What kind of shot do you think they have against Memphis?

 

[jimmyshivers]

thanks knuckle, glad to see the terps finish this game strong and give me a nice start for the day.


so far 2-2-1 -.2 units in postseason action.

Adding:

** Michigan Wolverines +4.5
1/2* Michigan ML +170
* O 138.5

Not seeing the love for Clemson today. The tigers are collapsing again, having lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Think the Wolverines are well equipped to beat this team, they can stroke the long ball very well and I think that 1-3-1 D is going to give Purnell all kinds of trouble. Clemson has alot of athletes but they are playing stupid ball right now and their tiger trap just isnt working. Michigan does a great job with the ball (1.56 A/TO ratio in last 5 games) and I see them getting alot of good looks around the perimetere when Clemson tries to pressure. In my opinion we are getting a decent number of points going with a team in better form and a coach with a ton more tourney experience. Sounds like a winner to me...

 

[jimmyshivers]

Good call, one of the best 15 minute stretches for Maryland all year there at the end of the game. They were scrappy, rebounded well, and played good team basketball for a change. What kind of shot do you think they have against Memphis?

Maryland is playing very well for the right now, and you said it, they were very unselfish. Haven't seen memphis play alot this year but today may have been a wake-up call for the Tigers. Memphis plays decent defense but they haven't seen a team with Marylands speed, or a player with the talent of Vasquez, in months. Will most likely be taking the points in the next round, depending on the line of course