ACC Plays for Week 8

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*** Clemson Tigers +6

See above post. Haven't played on CU this year yet but I'm seeing some progression from the Tigers here. Think Miami is good yet overvalued this week. Offensive numbers skewed against some bad teams and in fact the O has been fairly average in the last 3 games against D-1 schools (7,21 and 28 points). Think Clemson has a big edge on the D-line and will be able to get to Harris and cause him to struggle this week. Parker is growing into the offense and Spiller is a major talent with 5 TD's this season of 60+ yards. Miami is banged up pretty bad right now on both lines and in the secondary and I think Clemson has enough to give them fits on both sides of the ball.

Looks like a coin-flip game to me and I will look at grabbing a piece of the ML as well here.
 

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Thanks for the input... solid points... I hadn't seen Clem until last week -- heard they were big play but inconsistent. They put a clinic on a WF team I respect. I may just sit back on this one.


Think the time to bet Miami is next week @ Wake. They have the better match-ups on both sides of the ball and will either be getting points or laying a small number. If I'm laying less than 7 its probably a big play for me..
 

Solomon Alabi - The Next Big Thing
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Ugh..I cant back FSU, even though I don't bet them. UNC also has had a bye week to get ready for FSU at home, laying the 2.5 seems decent.

Yates should have a good game...do more research tomorrow..

Big key: How many sacks does FSU have this season / How many has UNC given up?
 

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Agree with you on BC--this is the game they/we look forward to every year...hoping for #7 in a row!
 

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I like Ga Tech -4 against the Cavs. I just think that Va squeaked a win against the bottom barrel Terps last week. The game was still winable late for Maryland until Turner does what he always does (Turnover). I really like Ga Tech and im surprised that they havent gotten more points.
 

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jimmy,

as I clicked on your thread I was like "I hope he's on B.C. and Clemson"...you didn't let me down sir...came close to playing Virginia as well but couldn't pull the trigger...keep up the good work my East Coast pardna, remember that the cream always rises to the top...
 

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Ugh..I cant back FSU, even though I don't bet them. UNC also has had a bye week to get ready for FSU at home, laying the 2.5 seems decent.

Yates should have a good game...do more research tomorrow..

Big key: How many sacks does FSU have this season / How many has UNC given up?

Can't see how you can back that awful offense. They have struggled in every game this year and their O-line is still really banged up. Can't see Yates having any time against a much more athletic FSU defensive front, and their running game is just as bad. Side-wise its FSU or nothing for me and I'm waiting to see the total for a potential under here.
 

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I like Ga Tech -4 against the Cavs. I just think that Va squeaked a win against the bottom barrel Terps last week. The game was still winable late for Maryland until Turner does what he always does (Turnover). I really like Ga Tech and im surprised that they havent gotten more points.


That was a bad spot for this Cavs team in terrible weather and they still found a way to win by DD. Neither team played well but its a credit to UVA that they found a way to win ugly. They've had 6 awful quarters this season and after that have been much improved. GT isn't laying more points because people like me were waiting to unload on a +7 and they didn't want that kind of exposure. Be careful with the Jackets here its a tough match-up and a really rough spot to back them here..
 

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BC,

Really impresssed with the way Spazz has made leomonade this season. Many teams would have taken that adversity and said it wasn't their year but the Eagles are flourishing. Hope to seem them get it done on Saturday again.

pags,

Glad to hear you got both of them. Would much rather be with you than against you. Heard about your issues around the way and I will be looking to find your new home tonight. BOL man your as solid as they get :toast:
 

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*** FSU/UNC Under 48


UNC will put defensive pressure on Ponder all day, and the Seminole running game has struggled all season. FSU flourishes on offense against teams weak up front, and UNC is as tough up front as anyone the Noles will see all season. Carolina is very physical at the point of attack and I see FSU struggling to move the ball here.

FSU defense isn't great but this is a terrible Carlina offense that is short on athletes and experience and lacks the playmakers to exploit the Seminole weaknesses. Carolina banged up on the O-line as well and the athletes from FSU will be able to get into the back field all day. Had this total at 44 so its a nice value play for me as well.
 

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*** Clemson Tigers +6

See above post. Haven't played on CU this year yet but I'm seeing some progression from the Tigers here. Think Miami is good yet overvalued this week. Offensive numbers skewed against some bad teams and in fact the O has been fairly average in the last 3 games against D-1 schools (7,21 and 28 points). Think Clemson has a big edge on the D-line and will be able to get to Harris and cause him to struggle this week. Parker is growing into the offense and Spiller is a major talent with 5 TD's this season of 60+ yards. Miami is banged up pretty bad right now on both lines and in the secondary and I think Clemson has enough to give them fits on both sides of the ball.

Looks like a coin-flip game to me and I will look at grabbing a piece of the ML as well here.

Clemson is gonna stop Miami's wr with man to man defense? :laugh:
 

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Clemson is gonna stop Miami's wr with man to man defense? :laugh:

Clemson is especially strong in the secondary. A lot of experience back there and its mostly juniors and seniors in the 2-deep. I think their front 7 will be able to put enough pressure up front (3 sacks per game last 3) to make quick decisions here. Clemson secondary is keeping opposing QB's under 50% passing on the season and are averaging 1.7 INT's a game this year and only 5.6 yards per completion. In short, when you do complete the ball on them, they make tackles. I don't think the Miami offense is dynamic enough to consistently move the ball against a strong secondary and pass rush. The games where they have had their real offensive sucess (FSU and GT) certainly look less impressive as we have seen the points and yards both those defenses allow.

Another factor here is special teams. Miami has struggled with Kick-offs all season and Clemson ranks 8th in the country in average kick-off return. Ford and Spiller are ST deamons and I expect the Tigers will win the field position game all game long.
 

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Im witcha on FSU. Although both teams have D, I think that FSU can score if the chance is granted where as UNC is just a defensive team first. I like the under here aswell.
 
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29-28 -2.85 units

Don't have as much time this week so the write-ups will be shorter but I feel very strongly about 3 plays this week and like a couple more.

***** Duke Blue Devils -6

Duke is rarely a favorite and its even rarer that their favored in a conference match-up, so Vegas is trying to tell you that UMD is terrible. I have to agree as UMD will be a dog the rest of the season. They may cover some of the big lines as their offense can move the ball occasionally, but there are too many holes on this team to bet on them to cover the smaller ones.

Like this spot a lot for Duke coming off a bye week following the big win @ NCS. Coach Cut has this Duke team believing in their bowl chances so they will be focused here to have a big day. Maryland has only been on the road twice this season and their defense was torched both times. I'm taking the Home team thats clicking on offense to roll up a Maryland team who appears to be mailing it in already. Duke defense and Maryland O are a wash, but the Duke Offense will have a major advantage over the UMD D. They don't create turnovers or generate good pressure and I don't see them keepin up here. I had this line @ Duke -9.5 and was going to play the Devils there but @ 6 it becomes a strong play for me. Duke by 14..
Jimmy, if you had the line at -9.5, then why do you think Duke wins by 14? I mean, if you set the line at 9.5, then why would you possibly think the Blue Devils would win by 14? Why wouldn't you have set "your" line at -14? I understand the reasoning behind Duke becoming a play at -6 when you have the line set at -9.5 but where did Duke winning by 14 come from?
 

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Jimmy, if you had the line at -9.5, then why do you think Duke wins by 14? I mean, if you set the line at 9.5, then why would you possibly think the Blue Devils would win by 14? Why wouldn't you have set "your" line at -14? I understand the reasoning behind Duke becoming a play at -6 when you have the line set at -9.5 but where did Duke winning by 14 come from?


Aces,

I look at the card 3 weeks, 2 weeks and 1 week in advance each week and adjust my opinions each week accordingly. My opinion on this game based on current form and the situational match-up was that this line should have be 9.5 I was going to play Duke @ 9.5 here (for a smaller amount) as I think they win by 14 but it became a larger play with the added line value @ 6. When projecting lines I'm not trying to guess the final margin of victory, just where I think the line should be placed. My line guesses will vary from the books often because I put less weight on stats and more on spots, perception and personnel matchups. Hope this helps
 

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