ACC Plays for Week 8

[jimmyshivers]

29-28 -2.85 units

Don't have as much time this week so the write-ups will be shorter but I feel very strongly about 3 plays this week and like a couple more.

***** Duke Blue Devils -6

Duke is rarely a favorite and its even rarer that their favored in a conference match-up, so Vegas is trying to tell you that UMD is terrible. I have to agree as UMD will be a dog the rest of the season. They may cover some of the big lines as their offense can move the ball occasionally, but there are too many holes on this team to bet on them to cover the smaller ones.

Like this spot a lot for Duke coming off a bye week following the big win @ NCS. Coach Cut has this Duke team believing in their bowl chances so they will be focused here to have a big day. Maryland has only been on the road twice this season and their defense was torched both times. I'm taking the Home team thats clicking on offense to roll up a Maryland team who appears to be mailing it in already. Duke defense and Maryland O are a wash, but the Duke Offense will have a major advantage over the UMD D. They don't create turnovers or generate good pressure and I don't see them keepin up here. I had this line @ Duke -9.5 and was going to play the Devils there but @ 6 it becomes a strong play for me. Duke by 14..

 

[nd2000]

GL this week Jimmy :toast:

 

[indiana]

J.S............

thank you for the write up and play...BOL this week

indy

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Like Duke as well, they keep covering in very quite way.

 

[shizzle]

line fell to -5.5?

 

[jimmyshivers]

nd2000,

Good luck to you as well bro. Your threads are a must-read

Indiana,

Appreciate the support. Good luck on your action this week

TooTight,

Duke is improving week to week and growing in confidence. UMD has struggled as the injuries and losses have piled up. Duke has several winnable games left and has a real shot at bowl eligibility. Love this spot for the Devils this week.

 

[jimmyshivers]

line fell to -5.5?

Expecting to see a lot of money come in on UMD simply because people will automatically blindly fade Duke as a Favorite this week. Devlis are surging though and this is their best team since Fred Goldsmith's 1994 squad that made a bowl game. Losing Hartsfield is a big blow for an already ravaged UMD linebacker group and I think they will struggle to contain this Duke offense.

 

[shizzle]

thanks for the quick reply. you think it will go down even more?

 

[jimmyshivers]

thanks for the quick reply. you think it will go down even more?

It might hit 5 or even 4.5 before going back up towards the weekend. The books move between 5.5 and 4.5 easier than many other numbers because 5 isn't a key number like 4 and 6 are. Anything under 6 looks pretty damn good to me..

 

[shizzle]

sounds good! will def be on this as well

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Boston College Eagles +9

BC has gotten their ass kicked twice this season, and because both of these happened on the road were getting some value here taking the Eagles in this game. The other common denominator of those games where that they were the only 2 games this season where they played a team that plays defense, and ND certainly struggles with that aspect of the game.

The Irish are also coming off a close loss @ home to USC so the energy level might not be there for this team this week. BC gets geeked up for this game every year, having won the last 6, and I expect them to be able to keep it close here. The Irish look like the kind of team that are going to play most teams close this season and I think they struggle here in an emotional flat spot. Wouldn't be shocked at all by an Eagle victory here but I'll take the 9 points for insurance. 3 point game either way..

 

[TempleU22]

Agree with the ND/BC assessment. Notre dame hasn't really blown anyone out, aside from Nevada. It should be a close game.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Agree with the ND/BC assessment. Notre dame hasn't really blown anyone out, aside from Nevada. It should be a close game.

Lets hope so. Think BC offers tremendous value here and the line has already dropped a full point.

 

[jimmyshivers]

**** Virginia Cavaliers +4

Like the Duke game, I've had this one circled for a few weeks. UVA sucked ass the first 6 quarters of the season, but since the 2nd half of the TCU game this team has played very decently. Their growing into the spread offense and have put themselves in a suprising drivers seat in the ACC Coastal.

GT comes in here in a tremendous letdown spot following a tremendous victory over the Hokies last week. A night game on national TV followed by a noon road game against a 3-3 team is a tough spot to get motivated for. The Jackets have too many holes on Defense to be able to win with their B game and they had a career effort against VT. I tend to think that effort was more of an exception and I expect them to struggle here.

GT hasn't won here since the '90 championship season and lost outright to the Cavs last year as a 14 point favorite. UVA matches up against this option about as well as anyone as the 3-4 defense gives extra mobility and flexibility against the option. UVA winning with defense this year; holding opponents to 8.3 FD a game over the last 3 contests.

Wanted to grab now as the number 4 could disappear this week. Waiting on some injury news for UVA (Sewell, Simpson) and I may buy back or buy more here depending on that. Fully expect UVA to win this game..

 

[fadethepublic1]

whatya think about that FSU game? I know FSU is in a whirlwind right now but I think talent wise & offensively they have the edge. Your thoughts???

 

[nd2000]

whatya think about that FSU game? I know FSU is in a whirlwind right now but I think talent wise & offensively they have the edge. Your thoughts???

Looks solid.

 

[jimmyshivers]

whatya think about that FSU game? I know FSU is in a whirlwind right now but I think talent wise & offensively they have the edge. Your thoughts???

Leanin on the Noles today but I want to hear a little more injury info before I do anything. Really need to look at this one more as I am wary of backing road teams that are terrible on defense. Playing this Carolina offense may be the antidote though; they only put up 28 offensive points versus Georgia Southern and have really struggled all season. I think the bye week probably helps the FSU defense more than the Carolina O as it gives them a chance to get back to fundamentals. May consider the under more than a side here..

 

[awnp]

Jimmy, wanted to ask someone smarter on the ACC... because my initial statement could be completely squarish, but to me UM -6 seems like a no brainer at home v Clem. Got any early opinions?

 

[jimmyshivers]

Jimmy, wanted to ask someone smarter on the ACC... because my initial statement could be completely squarish, but to me UM -6 seems like a no brainer at home v Clem. Got any early opinions?

I had the same initial thought but I looked a little closer at what Miami has actually done this year. Though they are much improved theyve beaten up on some shitty Defenses this season (FSU and GT come to mind here). VT and OU made the Hurricanes work very hard offensively and I think Clemson has at least as much talent defensively as those two. Clemson gave up some big plays to GT early but they made a great defensive effort after adjusting and have been very strong since. Was also impressed with the offensive effort against Wake as they were able to consistently move the ball which they have struggled to do this year. I've faded the Tigers all year but I still think Miami is overvalued here and will be on the doggie in this one.

 

[awnp]

Thanks for the input... solid points... I hadn't seen Clem until last week -- heard they were big play but inconsistent. They put a clinic on a WF team I respect. I may just sit back on this one.